TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fed Rates · resolved market

Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$102,216,689
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$35,606,715

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $102,216,689 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,090 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6480…8dc5backed Yes0c6,700,251$15,525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,524.76320%0 W · 32 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c66…6b66backed Yes1c5,909,613$31,419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,418.91170%0 W · 17 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6df…f7a7backed Yes0c5,419,027$12,997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,997.39280%0 W · 28 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdf3…538dbacked Yes0c5,005,000$5,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53a9…2c0cbacked Yes0c4,898,316$9,797 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,796.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa53c…67a5backed Yes0c2,499,993$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,999.99520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-70.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4bac…02b1backed Yes0c2,172,566$9,882 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,881.95205%1 W · 19 L0.0wins0.00per pick5cpaid-91.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01dd…f8bbbacked Yes0c1,775,000$2,977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,976.5840%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1d6…e727backed Yes0c1,669,941$2,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,959.84190%0 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb41a…3a25backed Yes1c1,505,253$7,526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,526.26812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick10cpaid-81.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc810…1ce6backed Yes0c760,000$760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48f2…1240backed Yes1c657,143$4,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,30030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4877…d812backed Yes0c502,277$1,507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,506.8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd04d…3312backed Yes0c499,999$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00070%0 W · 7 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f17…dd73backed Yes1c452,238$2,713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,713.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ca6…cfdcbacked Yes0c362,370$1,087 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,087.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0699…f15bbacked Yes0c291,581$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.18520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-70.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3695…6052backed Yes0c283,333$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20d1…a623backed Yes0c280,000$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd281…af47backed Yes1c268,258$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,60030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7ff…14c3backed Yes1c249,900$1,499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,499.430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a81…58b0backed Yes0c231,495$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.99260%0 W · 26 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbee0…aa9fbacked Yes0c224,998$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick30cpaid-10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa60a…d285backed Yes1c224,100$1,345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,344.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92eb…986abacked Yes0c218,000$826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8263417.6%6 W · 28 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-74.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe54d…42b5backed Yes1c205,910$1,235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,235.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7aec…0b3ebacked Yes0c204,000$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30460%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecc0…e50ebacked Yes0c200,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20050%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b57…e3b5backed Yes1c199,916$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ec7…71a4backed Yes0c198,360$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.3630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21a9…3567backed Yes0c198,000$594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89b7…bd74backed Yes0c191,924$576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$575.7710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9940…b140backed Yes1c190,525$1,143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,143.15250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid-9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0a9…67e4backed Yes0c188,000$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b76…6cb5backed Yes1c186,634$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,119.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba48…92e2backed Yes0c186,435$559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x465f…e9afbacked Yes0c179,154$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7704…9770backed Yes0c155,000$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2977…8abfbacked Yes0c153,000$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15380%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x680e…e4b9backed Yes1c150,208$901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64ce…9dafbacked Yes1c150,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b0b…5e43backed Yes0c147,830$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.661020%2 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-38.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf865…436bbacked Yes1c147,592$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,080.38333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-56.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2dc4…ec57backed Yes0c145,000$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4cfa…e3f7backed Yes0c126,290$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.2930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4df7…baefbacked Yes0c125,000$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6a4…3be3backed Yes1c122,655$736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$735.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa84d…74a8backed Yes1c122,000$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48d5…919abacked Yes1c120,510$723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$723.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb65d…3757backed Yes0c120,000$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4b0…7f46backed Yes1c117,988$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$589.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b59…58e6backed Yes0c117,975$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.92340%0 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee23…10d2backed Yes1c111,828$671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$670.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3c2…26aabacked Yes0c106,203$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53f6…dbf6backed Yes0c105,000$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick23cpaid-50.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b6f…c91ebacked Yes0c105,000$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa715…d273backed Yes1c104,617$628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$627.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x134c…291abacked Yes1c102,691$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$616.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb40…ac42backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeef4…520dbacked Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10090%0 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98bf…5ccebacked Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b44…63cebacked Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4074…0a67backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8a4…2969backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22fb…d7d6backed Yes0c100,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200120%0 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes0c100,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002814.3%4 W · 24 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-56.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd817…ac33backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bb2…6b94backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadd4…96edbacked Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10070%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd47c…77f4backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7b2…639ebacked Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa2f…e797backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c48…dbc2backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c54…257dbacked Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002910.3%3 W · 26 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-78.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1439…5051backed Yes0c100,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200110%0 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4cc4…1b1abacked Yes0c96,650$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8f6…8f62backed Yes0c92,520$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5448…7c3cbacked Yes0c92,390$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22bb…598dbacked Yes0c91,870$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0fe…b3cbbacked Yes1c89,123$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$534.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b9a…116abacked Yes1c89,047$534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$534.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef64…a571backed Yes1c86,860$521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfcf…f1c7backed Yes0c84,780$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe797…2b36backed Yes1c84,407$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeebb…3e85backed Yes0c81,000$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8140%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe443…5e2bbacked Yes1c80,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d0c…4375backed Yes1c77,505$718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$717.56333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-57.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb01b…e951backed Yes0c75,000$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75130%0 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x257a…ae00backed Yes0c75,000$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cbb…374abacked Yes1c75,000$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd2b…cb10backed Yes1c73,645$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd30…29aebacked Yes1c70,000$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27f6…ad87backed Yes0c69,225$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0706…6ffebacked Yes1c68,500$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe744…2931backed Yes0c68,223$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58f9…49a6backed Yes0c68,110$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38e5…7f62backed Yes0c67,809$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95ef…fd55backed Yes0c67,769$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe244…9f50backed Yes1c62,348$564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$563.5320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2753…8137backed Yes1c62,180$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.