Fed Rates · resolved market
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a8c775d3a7ab901a5c4595dbc33478d654dc3b293be2b80fd64500cabbfcc37
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,589,989
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,283,154
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,589,989 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 2,375 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf0ec…6064backed Yes | 1c | 3,110,440$20,695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,694.61 | 35 | 2.9%1 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -96.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6480…8dc5backed Yes | 1c | 1,666,453$12,227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,226.91 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe1…b7e5backed Yes | 1c | 1,000,947$9,609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,609 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6621…96b3backed Yes | 1c | 903,610$7,177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,177.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f33…56a3backed Yes | 1c | 890,344$8,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,098.84 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2be4…01adbacked Yes | 0c | 844,549$3,894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,894.31 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef52…cd4bbacked Yes | 1c | 764,727$5,633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,633.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x104a…5b05backed Yes | 3c | 738,580$23,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,999.77 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Yes | 2c | 600,000$9,564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,564.08 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -92.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5a…00f2backed Yes | 0c | 598,047$2,392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,392.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca9…ad82backed Yes | 1c | 575,656$6,114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,114.05 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb132…9eb8backed Yes | 1c | 381,499$4,554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,554.3 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8c…67c6backed Yes | 1c | 371,500$2,395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,395 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked Yes | 1c | 353,734$3,647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,646.77 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc227…b18abacked Yes | 0c | 318,703$1,446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,446.02 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4621…efccbacked Yes | 2c | 306,557$4,675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,674.8 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…acdcbacked Yes | 1c | 302,182$4,115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,114.76 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…e38bbacked Yes | 0c | 300,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb009…175bbacked Yes | 1c | 280,407$2,941 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,941.22 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc5…5cc9backed Yes | 4c | 268,903$9,688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,688 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x092c…667fbacked Yes | 0c | 265,017$928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$927.59 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5dc…11bbbacked Yes | 1c | 255,296$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd733…38cabacked Yes | 4c | 255,020$9,865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,865.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecc0…e50ebacked Yes | 1c | 254,923$1,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,899.53 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57e9…df05backed Yes | 2c | 250,865$5,378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,377.61 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e6…025bbacked Yes | 1c | 250,006$2,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,600 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x238a…1574backed Yes | 1c | 241,935$1,995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,995 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ef…098fbacked Yes | 3c | 238,578$6,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,680 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40f4…c7d7backed Yes | 2c | 235,499$5,411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,411.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb41a…3a25backed Yes | 1c | 235,002$2,877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,876.6 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8e…6a53backed Yes | 2c | 234,053$5,041 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,040.6 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 2c | 230,370$5,747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,746.86 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 3c | 228,145$5,708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,708.14 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05da…ae41backed Yes | 1c | 226,943$1,845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,845.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78cb…e606backed Yes | 1c | 222,381$1,990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,990 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedf3…eac3backed Yes | 0c | 217,918$903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$902.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x521b…c47ebacked Yes | 0c | 214,000$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c71…81f6backed Yes | 1c | 189,092$1,039 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,038.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95b5…4b6ebacked Yes | 1c | 188,122$1,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,197.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 4c | 185,939$7,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,013.6 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4e6…e7e8backed Yes | 1c | 183,668$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,599.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 1c | 177,154$2,576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,575.67 | 104 | 20.2%21 W · 83 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c54…257dbacked Yes | 0c | 177,000$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8a…de11backed Yes | 1c | 174,936$1,532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,531.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe582…1cdcbacked Yes | 1c | 169,483$1,998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,997.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f68…62abbacked Yes | 3c | 169,104$5,763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,763.36 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff88…4735backed Yes | 3c | 168,516$4,294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,294 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…079abacked Yes | 1c | 165,000$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x830e…514fbacked Yes | 1c | 162,772$1,932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,932 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…c857backed Yes | 2c | 161,917$2,810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,809.67 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbee0…aa9fbacked Yes | 3c | 161,200$4,081 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,081.13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b3…40d4backed Yes | 1c | 159,969$1,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,259.81 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d11…531fbacked Yes | 3c | 147,663$4,983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,983.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0914…9c93backed Yes | 1c | 147,535$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.58 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x836a…deb1backed Yes | 0c | 143,421$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f64…1971backed Yes | 1c | 142,042$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6db2…23ddbacked Yes | 2c | 134,869$2,359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,358.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a6…c27bbacked Yes | 1c | 131,985$792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$791.91 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x839c…dcc6backed Yes | 3c | 130,867$3,496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,495.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49f3…76dcbacked Yes | 1c | 130,074$1,616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,615.88 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…932cbacked Yes | 1c | 127,777$1,624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,623.68 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf645…0d16backed Yes | 1c | 127,589$1,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,480 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc32…996bbacked Yes | 4c | 122,256$4,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,500 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x668e…294dbacked Yes | 1c | 120,591$894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$894.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3c…434fbacked Yes | 1c | 119,657$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c62…a312backed Yes | 1c | 110,440$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…af47backed Yes | 5c | 101,905$4,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,800 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc810…1ce6backed Yes | 1c | 100,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd2…c21bbacked Yes | 2c | 100,000$1,599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,599.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x477d…e691backed Yes | 1c | 100,000$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 10cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27c2…6eb3backed Yes | 4c | 98,160$3,726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,726.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x138d…5a69backed Yes | 3c | 95,958$2,851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,850.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 2c | 94,162$1,848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,848.22 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -88.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6f…25f0backed Yes | 1c | 93,843$1,256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,256.16 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01dd…f8bbbacked Yes | 1c | 90,050$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a3…c3a6backed Yes | 3c | 90,000$2,745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,745 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x715f…6681backed Yes | 3c | 89,999$3,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,094.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb437…f8d0backed Yes | 2c | 86,299$2,106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,106 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8de0…87a0backed Yes | 1c | 85,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f32…cd81backed Yes | 3c | 84,338$2,519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,519.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaefb…a0efbacked Yes | 5c | 84,324$3,801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,801.39 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc4…7bb2backed Yes | 1c | 81,269$1,201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,201 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62b1…eceabacked Yes | 1c | 81,193$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked Yes | 4c | 77,962$2,743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,743.07 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadc4…581ebacked Yes | 4c | 76,573$2,998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,998.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81d2…e13ebacked Yes | 3c | 76,018$2,039 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,038.7 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1128…cfa5backed Yes | 2c | 75,289$1,148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,147.6 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7485…5280backed Yes | 0c | 74,995$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1047…763abacked Yes | 2c | 73,646$1,322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,322.23 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc314…f2cbbacked Yes | 2c | 73,192$1,243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,242.86 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc4e…f04abacked Yes | 5c | 72,534$3,274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,274 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c17…9edcbacked Yes | 1c | 71,973$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.87 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -63%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c91…18aabacked Yes | 3c | 71,202$1,864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,863.53 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8be2…8b8abacked Yes | 6c | 70,458$4,574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,573.76 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa8…d618backed Yes | 1c | 69,826$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7181…a290backed Yes | 1c | 68,665$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9c…31a0backed Yes | 3c | 67,717$1,836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,836.41 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5697…c7bebacked Yes | 0c | 66,808$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a7…89cbbacked Yes | 4c | 65,925$2,381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,380.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33fc…cee6backed Yes | 1c | 65,875$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting?this page
- Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?Yes won
- Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?No won
- No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.