TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fed Rates · resolved market

No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$46,052,654
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$21,063,552

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,052,654 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 2,670 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf0ec…6064backed Yes1c2,241,921$24,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,409.74352.9%1 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-96.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e71…ba82backed Yes3c2,230,764$70,562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70,562.11010%1 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick9cpaid-85.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x830e…514fbacked Yes3c1,554,816$43,428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43,42840%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x581d…2b06backed Yes1c942,667$12,853 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,852.76130%0 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8de0…87a0backed Yes2c870,307$15,106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,105.91150%0 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac51…da02backed Yes1c757,953$8,282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,282.4140%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x238a…1574backed Yes1c727,580$9,147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,14720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Yes3c575,000$16,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,599.82303.3%1 W · 29 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-92.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x935f…88a6backed Yes1c479,247$4,909 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,908.9120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x63a0…3839backed Yes1c453,147$4,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,90010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2be4…01adbacked Yes1c447,859$4,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,012.37120%0 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed Yes0c439,960$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.9620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c15…c9dbbacked Yes11c431,959$45,835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45,834.912321.7%5 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-71.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x255b…b9bebacked Yes1c427,180$4,665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,664.6330%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6480…8dc5backed Yes1c419,084$3,976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,976320%0 W · 32 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x943c…6f04backed Yes1c402,045$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab4…fa65backed Yes6c398,240$24,330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,329.91050%5 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-27.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8fa…77b5backed Yes1c371,237$3,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,650.3980%0 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7c94…a6c7backed Yes2c365,427$7,068 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,068.4960%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x030f…ffefbacked Yes3c288,553$7,902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,902.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd9c…31a0backed Yes11c260,450$29,377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,377.434820.8%10 W · 38 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-61.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdaeb…a2a5backed Yes10c248,306$24,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,749.89540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-38.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24b1…48eebacked Yes12c241,881$29,458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,457.88119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes3c237,009$7,665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,665.315034%17 W · 33 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-41%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb373…c8b0backed Yes2c234,985$5,779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,779.1120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb009…175bbacked Yes2c223,959$5,405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,404.9960%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dd2…3347backed Yes1c221,282$1,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,99910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ef…5232backed Yes1c210,383$2,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,08010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fe1…b7e5backed Yes2c195,780$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,50060%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdf3…538dbacked Yes1c192,330$2,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x071c…9b75backed Yes3c189,501$5,504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,503.6120%0 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73ed…4f78backed Yes2c177,290$3,342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,342.2620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x541c…c462backed Yes4c164,153$5,937 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,937.212138.1%8 W · 13 L+3.0wins+0.14per pick24cpaid+49.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1d2b…a8ddbacked Yes1c163,660$2,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,45020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1258…0c15backed Yes1c153,292$1,993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,992.830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes11c152,354$16,311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,311.151921.1%4 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-68.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2199…f619backed Yes1c151,000$1,409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,40910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc32…996bbacked Yes2c150,000$2,625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,625.0450%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1eb…cba1backed Yes0c143,667$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8795…7544backed Yes10c142,816$13,951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,950.891118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-65.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7aec…0b3ebacked Yes1c140,191$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,399.8560%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0288…e926backed Yes7c139,787$9,996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,995.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb6f…25f0backed Yes2c138,756$2,986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,985.674415.9%7 W · 37 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-76.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf74…b16cbacked Yes1c135,009$1,074 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,073.9119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-85.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecc0…e50ebacked Yes1c132,565$1,216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,216.3250%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f33…56a3backed Yes1c128,788$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,500120%0 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a1d…0704backed Yes1c123,786$1,114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,114.0720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c3d…bbb8backed Yes1c123,272$1,712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,71240%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01dd…f8bbbacked Yes1c122,733$1,426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,426.1540%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87b8…96f5backed Yes3c121,030$3,397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,397.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bb7…44f2backed Yes1c119,805$908 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$907.7760%0 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c26…cf53backed Yes1c112,577$1,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,089.9970%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcea5…80f7backed Yes1c111,019$891 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$891.4740%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f64…1971backed Yes1c106,801$998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$997.9720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd461…1d6cbacked Yes1c106,357$1,247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,246.620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb60…137abacked Yes2c105,718$1,704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,703.98156.7%1 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick14cpaid-90.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…4bccbacked Yes10c105,591$10,992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,991.731010%1 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-69.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd281…af47backed Yes11c105,358$11,628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,628.2930%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1128…cfa5backed Yes2c101,672$1,857 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,857.291513.3%2 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick13cpaid-50.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe25d…452cbacked Yes2c100,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda81…ed2cbacked Yes1c95,721$1,167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,166.6330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8784…3786backed Yes0c95,000$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95b5…4b6ebacked Yes1c93,504$1,198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,198.3920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab95…c8cfbacked Yes1c92,092$1,017 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,016.6240%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeacb…eb28backed Yes1c90,818$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91ce…16ecbacked Yes8c90,154$7,274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,273.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa86…bf61backed Yes1c90,041$1,078 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,077.8320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2a3…c3a6backed Yes3c90,000$2,490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,49020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa710…4173backed Yes13c89,728$11,653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,652.87633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick21cpaid-24.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x593f…953abacked Yes1c89,592$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80050%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef62…0179backed Yes3c89,294$2,407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,406.9520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8702…44abbacked Yes1c86,529$1,102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,101.9930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcba3…6055backed Yes3c85,000$2,324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,323.8390%0 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2106…079abacked Yes1c85,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,02020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6095…b9fbbacked Yes6c82,540$5,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,10020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3975…0f53backed Yes1c82,250$951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$951.5714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-82.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Yes3c82,011$2,787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,787.12306.7%2 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-88.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38af…2b76backed Yes1c81,951$929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$928.9820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fd4…69aabacked Yes1c81,935$969 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$968.7840%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c87…9bd4backed Yes7c79,310$5,552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,551.733043.3%13 W · 17 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4fd3…9424backed Yes11c79,167$8,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,50010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4df…9a3fbacked Yes1c78,406$627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$627.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7b2…639ebacked Yes1c76,561$1,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,002.6220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb132…9eb8backed Yes1c75,242$928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$928.0260%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes7c74,266$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,000119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick17cpaid-81.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc532…c0c3backed Yes1c73,872$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71e5…13febacked Yes1c72,688$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$850.3780%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e72…baf0backed Yes1c71,480$858 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$857.7620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1714…cbb8backed Yes1c71,426$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.9720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7516…8bebbacked Yes13c71,000$9,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,020944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick35cpaid-24.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed Yes2c70,142$1,386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,385.713026.7%8 W · 22 L+2.6wins+0.09per pick18cpaid+42.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes1c68,000$652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6523023.3%7 W · 23 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick16cpaid-45.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x637f…4826backed Yes1c67,964$519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$519.520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Yes7c66,679$4,789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,788.676516.9%11 W · 54 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-35.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes2c65,000$1,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0904320.9%9 W · 34 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-37.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4621…efccbacked Yes2c63,081$1,104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,103.522917.2%5 W · 24 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick15cpaid-34.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8408…bb06backed Yes6c62,567$3,754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,754.0420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4506…784fbacked Yes1c61,594$574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$574.540%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40dd…e214backed Yes1c61,318$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480140%0 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c8e…e2d4backed Yes1c61,039$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.