TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x071c…9b75

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
124
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
1

Best Category: Venezuela, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Venezuela at 55 out of 100; worst Fed Rates at 49.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT6126.2%16 W · 45 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick23cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 61 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$220Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$219.97
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$1,634Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,634.16
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.28
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$329Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$329.14
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$199Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$97.95
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$146Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$145.77
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$1,119Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,118.72
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$102.57
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$739Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$739.3
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$2,342Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,342
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$659Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$658.71
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$152Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$152.03
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$300.13
Will Iran strike Turkey in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$219Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$219.24
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$1,127Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,126.97
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$1,910Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,909.61
US forces enter Iran by March 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$285Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$285.41
Will Sadegh Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$319Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$319.43
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$388Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$388.08
Will Mohsen Araki be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$59.91
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$772Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+1,006%+$7,763.36
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$126Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+169.2%+$213.7
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$198Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+203%+$402
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$301Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+134.7%+$405.21
Showing 25 of 61 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT2722.2%6 W · 21 L0.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid+20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Commodities — the 27 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$751Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+43%+$323.1
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$281Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$281.08
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.72
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$176Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$176.17
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 29, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$81.87
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$1,238Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+387.7%+$4,798.22
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$250.45
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$63.43
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$273Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+196.6%+$536.99
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.84
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$318Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+1,422.8%+$4,528.29
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$845Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$844.7
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$63.15
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$120.22
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+189.9%+$112.14
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by March 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.37
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by March 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$156Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$156.42
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by March 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$129.59
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by March 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$106.9
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by March 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$1,113Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,112.52
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$2,281Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,281.37
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$361Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$361.33
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$971Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$970.95
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by March 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$132Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+403.9%+$535.01
Showing 25 of 27 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT120%0 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.52
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$827Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$826.52
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$954Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$953.54
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$534Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$533.89
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$1,833Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,832.54
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$3,064Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,063.78
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$625Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$625.27
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$330Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$330
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$238Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$237.91
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$1,500Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$1,500
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$5,504Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$5,503.6
All 12 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1020%2 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-15.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.11
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$319Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$318.86
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$222Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$378
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$496Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+472.2%+$2,343.46
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$401Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$400.8
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$118Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$118.2
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$1,382Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,382.34
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$571Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$570.7
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$344Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$343.8
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$457Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$456.73
All 10 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 29, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick22cpaid-33.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.35per pick15cpaid+167.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+61.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPAX?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$216Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+58.5%+$126.38
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.