Middle East · resolved market
Will Mohsen Araki be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe2c0487205a267f11fc98c851648386709f7f3d5b26ec39d04781a01fd4475f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $226,923
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $226,923 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 0c | 63,256$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.61 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…f395backed Yes | 0c | 38,567$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.29 | 146 | 9.6%14 W · 132 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 35,734$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.91 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf63e…d3afbacked Yes | 0c | 22,934$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.05 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 0c | 15,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes | 0c | 12,824$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.94 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42f0…fc65backed Yes | 1c | 10,551$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.47 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00fa…30bebacked Yes | 2c | 10,372$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 64 | 20.3%13 W · 51 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3247…4254backed Yes | 0c | 10,099$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4db9…8339backed Yes | 1c | 10,054$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.53 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77fc…0eacbacked Yes | 0c | 9,642$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.24 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x934c…cd38backed Yes | 1c | 9,060$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.58 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +11.0wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x071c…9b75backed Yes | 1c | 8,945$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.91 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 0c | 8,588$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.37 | 156 | 26.9%42 W · 114 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 0c | 8,218$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.31 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…5d99backed Yes | 0c | 7,740$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc5…da90backed Yes | 0c | 7,233$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a6…8651backed Yes | 1c | 7,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.43 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64c6…a070backed Yes | 1c | 6,164$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.56 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x513f…041cbacked Yes | 0c | 5,843$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 6cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…0958backed Yes | 1c | 5,675$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.37 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa2…3170backed Yes | 1c | 5,159$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.12 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +8.3wins | +0.21per pick | 25cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xba0b…7132backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc36f…e80ebacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 4,966$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 228 | 2.6%6 W · 222 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f3…d930backed Yes | 1c | 4,927$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +135.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…1086backed Yes | 0c | 4,495$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 148 | 8.1%12 W · 136 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +238.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c13…ce0ebacked Yes | 0c | 3,924$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 63 | 9.5%6 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 0c | 3,291$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 3,246$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 0c | 3,180$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 64 | 9.4%6 W · 58 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed Yes | 0c | 3,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 76 | 35.5%27 W · 49 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7187…f08bbacked Yes | 0c | 2,890$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -29%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 1c | 2,100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 71 | 31%22 W · 49 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6c…fc59backed Yes | 0c | 2,082$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -87.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf8…5976backed Yes | 1c | 1,878$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa485…ad89backed Yes | 1c | 1,762$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…129abacked Yes | 1c | 1,076$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…f352backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e84…a838backed Yes | 4c | 394.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 40 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mohsen Araki be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?this page
- Will Abbas Araghchi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Ahmad Khatami be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Ahmad Vahidi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Ali Asghar Hejazi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Ali Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Ali Motahari be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Hashem Hosseini Bushehri be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Hassan Rouhani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Hassan Shariatmadari be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Khalil Mobasher Kashani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Maryam Rajavi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Masoud Pezeshkian be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Massoud Rajavi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Mohammad Hadi Ghazanfari Khansari be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Mohammad Khatami be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Mohammad Yasrebi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Mohammad-Reza Modarresi Yazdi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Mohsen Qomi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?Yes won
- Will Mostafa Pourmohammadi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Muhammad Mirbaqiri be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Mustafa Hijri be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Nasir Hosseini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Navid Shomali be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Reza Pahlavi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Reza Pirzadeh be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Sadegh Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Sadegh Mahsouli be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Saeed Jalili be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Seyed Hossein Mousavian be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?No won
- Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.