TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Nasir Hosseini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$58,247

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,247 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc709…5f3abacked Yes0c21,568$22 inLost-$21.57160%0 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2179…bedbbacked Yes0c18,078$18 inLost-$18.08310%0 W · 31 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes0c13,522$43 inLost-$43.285071.4%7 W · 500 L0.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4cb8…e48fbacked Yes0c11,607$30 inLost-$305215.4%8 W · 44 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick11cpaid+29.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c11,000$11 inLost-$113103.9%12 W · 298 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-32.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes0c10,093$21 inLost-$21.261,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd245…2318backed Yes0c8,399$25 inLost-$25.24822.9%11 W · 37 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+23%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e99…72a0backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost-$101421.4%3 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick21cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4aa2…3170backed Yes1c4,695$44 inLost-$43.573946.2%18 W · 21 L+8.3wins+0.21per pick25cpaid+112.8%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xe6c1…3285backed Yes0c4,177$15 inLost-$15633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick21cpaid+75%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa349…a150backed Yes1c3,463$25 inLost-$25.53923.1%9 W · 30 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick16cpaid+15.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5795…30fabacked Yes1c3,067$31 inLost-$31.348719.5%17 W · 70 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd92e…eddbbacked Yes1c2,884$30 inLost-$29.512814.3%4 W · 24 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-60.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b41…2a52backed Yes1c2,879$25 inLost-$25.53923.1%9 W · 30 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick15cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc3c5…66e8backed Yes1c2,856$26 inLost-$25.52313%3 W · 20 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick9cpaid+27.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb37b…a2d9backed Yes1c2,766$24 inLost-$2470%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x634f…8c21backed Yes1c2,717$25 inLost-$25.570%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe316…1766backed Yes1c2,655$25 inLost-$25.54020%8 W · 32 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick17cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3332…89b6backed Yes1c2,637$25 inLost-$25.53013.3%4 W · 26 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick9cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9b0…a817backed Yes1c1,681$17 inLost-$16.812138.1%8 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-41.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67a9…c417backed Yes1c1,105$16 inLost-$15.87230.6%22 W · 50 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick27cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 40 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.