Middle East · resolved market

Will Sadegh Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf2519140ba83088e002be42cccad02e9b7306856ac32a50c856d255cc2e0e405

Rebuilt 11 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 8, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $562,803

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $562,803 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 217 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Middle East
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2f2b…8037backed Yes	1c	62,904$362 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$362	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes	3c	31,574$856 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$856.38	215	21.9%47 W · 168 L	+11.6wins	+0.05per pick	16cpaid	+29.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	1c	29,047$334 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$334.14	507	1.4%7 W · 500 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes	2c	22,415$430 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$429.66	170	18.2%31 W · 139 L	+5.8wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	+77.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x34ab…3eb5backed Yes	1c	19,440$232 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$231.5	226	27.9%63 W · 163 L	-6.3wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes	1c	19,130$241 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240.88	310	3.9%12 W · 298 L	+3.9wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed Yes	1c	18,157$191 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$191.49	80	36.3%29 W · 51 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56c9…afe7backed Yes	9c	14,789$1,379 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,379.09	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+2.6wins	+0.33per pick	30cpaid	+69.4%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes	1c	14,639$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140.34	197	6.6%13 W · 184 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa5aa…35b2backed Yes	0c	14,140$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.42	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x071c…9b75backed Yes	2c	14,096$319 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$319.43	61	26.2%16 W · 45 L	+2.2wins	+0.04per pick	23cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes	3c	13,425$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350.02	72	1.4%1 W · 71 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	4cpaid	-67.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0db4…d1d3backed Yes	4c	13,388$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-2.3wins	-0.28per pick	41cpaid	-83.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfba9…cb2cbacked Yes	1c	13,150$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.67	48	12.5%6 W · 42 L	-4.1wins	-0.08per pick	21cpaid	+102.9%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes	1c	12,791$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169.91	274	2.9%8 W · 266 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	-58.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes	1c	11,985$173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$172.51	243	8.2%20 W · 223 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-47.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x88c4…129abacked Yes	6c	11,864$682 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$682.43	59	54.2%32 W · 27 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	3c	9,118$292 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$291.78	713	5.6%40 W · 673 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a75…5271backed Yes	3c	8,364$256 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$256.05	17	52.9%9 W · 8 L	+1.7wins	+0.10per pick	43cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes	1c	7,750$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.42	152	30.3%46 W · 106 L	+5.7wins	+0.04per pick	26cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked Yes	5c	7,708$364 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$364.06	58	34.5%20 W · 38 L	+2.0wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b5b…0872backed Yes	2c	7,640$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.82	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	+1.2wins	+0.08per pick	19cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	6,790$172 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$171.99	1,558	7.2%112 W · 1,446 L	-35.1wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf472…a262backed Yes	4c	6,657$245 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$244.51	54	7.4%4 W · 50 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-43.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes	2c	6,246$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.18	371	7%26 W · 345 L	+10.6wins	+0.03per pick	4cpaid	+13.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	4c	6,142$232 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$232.37	199	5%10 W · 189 L	+3.2wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ad9…861cbacked Yes	3c	6,022$166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165.68	24	0%0 W · 24 L	-3.5wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed Yes	2c	6,000$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	223	33.6%75 W · 148 L	+9.8wins	+0.04per pick	29cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4fc1…8360backed Yes	1c	5,837$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81	86	16.3%14 W · 72 L	-3.4wins	-0.04per pick	20cpaid	-65.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x37ea…f395backed Yes	1c	5,813$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.26	146	9.6%14 W · 132 L	+3.0wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9145…fe79backed Yes	2c	5,677$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	25	24%6 W · 19 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	-26.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes	2c	5,129$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.13	64	9.4%6 W · 58 L	-4.1wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-68.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes	2c	5,000$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93	191	19.9%38 W · 153 L	+4.3wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	-8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5715…1616backed Yes	2c	4,964$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	115	27%31 W · 84 L	+7.6wins	+0.07per pick	20cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7031…6a13backed Yes	2c	4,834$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.78	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.5wins	+0.10per pick	10cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc93c…52f1backed Yes	2c	4,806$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.32	40	55%22 W · 18 L	+1.6wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3524…2c23backed Yes	4c	4,783$182 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$182.28	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-1.8wins	-0.10per pick	21cpaid	-54%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb57…6a21backed Yes	4c	4,745$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175	22	27.3%6 W · 16 L	+1.7wins	+0.08per pick	19cpaid	-34.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes	2c	4,635$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.38	492	8.7%43 W · 449 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes	9c	4,426$395 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$394.8	62	35.5%22 W · 40 L	+6.0wins	+0.10per pick	26cpaid	+15.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1cea…f32abacked Yes	5c	4,231$217 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$217.35	80	17.5%14 W · 66 L	-9.1wins	-0.11per pick	29cpaid	-47.3%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xde1d…ef49backed Yes	1c	4,105$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.88	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.11per pick	22cpaid	-40.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7acd…1086backed Yes	1c	4,090$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57	148	8.1%12 W · 136 L	+4.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	+238.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c85…31d4backed Yes	2c	4,055$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	102	26.5%27 W · 75 L	+3.9wins	+0.04per pick	23cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2dc5…da90backed Yes	2c	4,003$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.11	27	29.6%8 W · 19 L	+1.5wins	+0.05per pick	24cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd624…a0f8backed Yes	5c	3,948$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180	52	34.6%18 W · 34 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	32cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf15…2aa9backed Yes	1c	3,894$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.73	22	0%0 W · 22 L	-2.5wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7447…a16dbacked Yes	2c	3,893$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.76	161	25.5%41 W · 120 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	24cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfea6…a363backed Yes	3c	3,837$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	44	22.7%10 W · 34 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29ea…701ebacked Yes	3c	3,736$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.61	39	2.6%1 W · 38 L	-2.7wins	-0.07per pick	9cpaid	-92.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd519…932cbacked Yes	2c	3,719$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.99	112	8.9%10 W · 102 L	-6.1wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	+149.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd92e…eddbbacked Yes	2c	3,712$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.24	28	14.3%4 W · 24 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-60.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes	1c	3,708$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.37	36	25%9 W · 27 L	-3.0wins	-0.08per pick	33cpaid	-48.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e85…8aaabacked Yes	1c	3,700$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	75	17.3%13 W · 62 L	+1.9wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x11e9…3980backed Yes	2c	3,675$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.91	19	26.3%5 W · 14 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	31cpaid	-44%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Yes	3c	3,670$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.14	120	23.3%28 W · 92 L	+10.9wins	+0.09per pick	14cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x420e…e3c9backed Yes	3c	3,571$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	187	38%71 W · 116 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-19%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6754…302bbacked Yes	2c	3,366$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.52	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	+0.9wins	+0.06per pick	7cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes	4c	3,223$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136.27	421	20.9%88 W · 333 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-39.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x71a9…6bbfbacked Yes	6c	3,152$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190.12	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+1.0wins	+0.20per pick	40cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes	2c	3,132$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.85	291	29.9%87 W · 204 L	+21.5wins	+0.07per pick	23cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7232…ebd9backed Yes	4c	3,132$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	-54.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bbc…8893backed Yes	2c	3,129$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.2	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.12per pick	22cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b5f…ef57backed Yes	2c	3,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	37	56.8%21 W · 16 L	+2.8wins	+0.08per pick	49cpaid	+12%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x86cc…2c10backed Yes	3c	2,974$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.55	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-54.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x38c6…306abacked Yes	1c	2,919$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.6	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Yes	1c	2,915$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.95	199	30.7%61 W · 138 L	+2.9wins	+0.01per pick	29cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5795…30fabacked Yes	3c	2,913$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.81	87	19.5%17 W · 70 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb253…6b67backed Yes	3c	2,876$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	18	44.4%8 W · 10 L	+1.7wins	+0.10per pick	35cpaid	+60.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f0a…f7aabacked Yes	1c	2,868$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.58	40	32.5%13 W · 27 L	-5.3wins	-0.13per pick	46cpaid	-52%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xca88…7caabacked Yes	2c	2,811$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	+4.5wins	+0.21per pick	21cpaid	+62.2%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x50ef…5e6ebacked Yes	4c	2,796$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	5	20%1 W · 4 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	+17.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x00fa…30bebacked Yes	4c	2,670$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	64	20.3%13 W · 51 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c69…51cabacked Yes	2c	2,647$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	135	18.5%25 W · 110 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	17cpaid	-16%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2ba…e8ccbacked Yes	5c	2,630$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.43	53	7.5%4 W · 49 L	-4.3wins	-0.08per pick	16cpaid	-61.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9b90…4ebabacked Yes	2c	2,550$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.5	34	8.8%3 W · 31 L	+1.4wins	+0.04per pick	5cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x10b2…4cebbacked Yes	4c	2,531$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.55	242	24.4%59 W · 183 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	4c	2,487$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.03	413	6.8%28 W · 385 L	-13.6wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x64db…89bbbacked Yes	2c	2,441$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	66	33.3%22 W · 44 L	+4.2wins	+0.06per pick	27cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5a06…7b53backed Yes	5c	2,329$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4915…bef1backed Yes	2c	2,328$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	14	0%0 W · 14 L	-1.3wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x64c6…a070backed Yes	4c	2,175$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.68	29	20.7%6 W · 23 L	-3.5wins	-0.12per pick	33cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8c21…adafbacked Yes	2c	2,140$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.8	10	30%3 W · 7 L	+1.4wins	+0.14per pick	16cpaid	+213.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3542…c3c8backed Yes	2c	2,137$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.94	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	+0.5wins	+0.05per pick	28cpaid	-43.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a6…8651backed Yes	1c	2,100$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.99	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-58.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2f1a…bfa2backed Yes	2c	2,051$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.37	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	23cpaid	-40.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3739…307fbacked Yes	1c	2,034$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.15	93	4.3%4 W · 89 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	2cpaid	+75.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb08d…d759backed Yes	2c	2,028$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	20	40%8 W · 12 L	+2.5wins	+0.13per pick	27cpaid	+46.7%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xde87…11a2backed Yes	8c	2,009$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159.82	118	33.9%40 W · 78 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	+29.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ac0…a62dbacked Yes	2c	2,004$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d5e…4077backed Yes	1c	2,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59a7…34e6backed Yes	4c	1,831$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.44	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-1.7wins	-0.22per pick	34cpaid	-79.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7164…7ff7backed Yes	6c	1,740$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	28	21.4%6 W · 22 L	-1.5wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-46.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f5e…da72backed Yes	7c	1,739$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	71	23.9%17 W · 54 L	-3.5wins	-0.05per pick	29cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf1c2…89abbacked Yes	1c	1,700$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.9	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb6eb…cee6backed Yes	6c	1,683$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-45.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf040…d11fbacked Yes	2c	1,666$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.99	34	67.6%23 W · 11 L	+3.6wins	+0.11per pick	57cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa5bb…3849backed Yes	5c	1,660$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.5	19	36.8%7 W · 12 L	+2.0wins	+0.11per pick	26cpaid	+82.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x594a…906ebacked Yes	3c	1,657$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	15	20%3 W · 12 L	+0.8wins	+0.05per pick	15cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0bf8…5976backed Yes	4c	1,655$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-1.1wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 40 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Sadegh Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event