Middle East · resolved market
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe6525eb1b615ba8a490abc915d76cdffabb2aad4f71e26aaee5f57c3b096a71
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,928,919
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,928,919 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 5,186 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x88c4…129abacked No | 7c | 858,028$63,875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63,875.46 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4f…0a27backed No | 34c | 133,613$45,858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45,858.48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed No | 16c | 126,155$19,581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,581.21 | 106 | 34%36 W · 70 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a1…3529backed Yes | 61c | 105,566$63,904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41,661.38 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f62…e744backed Yes | 51c | 101,930$52,141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49,789.11 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -9.6wins | -0.32per pick | 62cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xfb57…6a21backed No | 0c | 100,894$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.89 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaef…54e9backed No | 36c | 90,930$32,708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32,707.95 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 21c | 86,152$17,805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,805.45 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbcf…8bb4backed No | 32c | 84,342$27,053 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,052.89 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5e…4077backed No | 0c | 74,368$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.99 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe472…e7ebbacked Yes | 71c | 69,823$49,834 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,989.64 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd362…9bc4backed No | 45c | 68,202$30,371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,370.63 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15a6…bf5dbacked No | 4c | 67,869$3,046 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,046.25 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7744…999ebacked Yes | 16c | 66,316$10,474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55,841.76 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked Yes | 69c | 65,549$45,455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,094.3 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3217…6895backed No | 49c | 64,989$31,826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,826.37 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked No | 25c | 61,970$15,567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,567.3 | 175 | 30.9%54 W · 121 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb9…be64backed No | 38c | 61,279$23,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,200 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…6233backed No | 46c | 60,066$27,347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,346.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x612b…6fddbacked No | 36c | 59,750$21,481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,480.93 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked Yes | 64c | 58,324$37,161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,163.32 | 166 | 38.6%64 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 79c | 54,542$42,832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,710.36 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56eb…076abacked Yes | 66c | 52,792$34,934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,857.12 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…321ebacked No | 26c | 51,543$13,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,379.66 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…4597backed Yes | 36c | 50,769$18,127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32,641.56 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +18.8wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +128.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3542…c3c8backed No | 38c | 48,668$18,696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,696.27 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d1…b824backed No | 53c | 47,988$25,482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,482.23 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9604…fc1dbacked No | 36c | 47,527$17,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,058.35 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 32c | 42,816$13,883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,882.75 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xddf4…2680backed Yes | 79c | 42,380$33,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,980.48 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6996…cf9abacked Yes | 43c | 41,738$18,055 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,682.75 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4db9…8339backed No | 27c | 41,414$11,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,060.63 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b44…264ebacked Yes | 72c | 40,490$29,232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,257.78 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +9.7wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +156.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa43a…94b2backed No | 32c | 37,534$12,068 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,068.23 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 18c | 37,353$6,634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,718.87 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc27a…c3a0backed No | 70c | 35,744$24,880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,880 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9648…6825backed Yes | 76c | 34,892$26,419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,472.71 | 148 | 21.6%32 W · 116 L | -24.5wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xde87…11a2backed Yes | 56c | 32,590$18,241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,349.34 | 118 | 33.9%40 W · 78 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x515e…747cbacked Yes | 79c | 31,845$25,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,845.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b2e…a279backed No | 60c | 31,353$18,735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,735.47 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0700…267bbacked Yes | 63c | 30,929$19,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,428.51 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.31per pick | 23cpaid | +105.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xebb7…e361backed Yes | 59c | 30,676$18,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,588.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11e5…ee4dbacked No | 55c | 30,391$16,695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,694.87 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4169…c7d4backed No | 1c | 30,315$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.66 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd45e…7497backed No | 0c | 29,862$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.31 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0464…3327backed Yes | 52c | 29,826$15,630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,196.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbe…c93cbacked No | 51c | 29,716$15,139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,139.07 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +9.6wins | +0.23per pick | 23cpaid | +219.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 18c | 29,542$5,303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,238.7 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x793c…e8dabacked No | 48c | 29,436$14,146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,146.34 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d91…2bd3backed Yes | 45c | 28,972$13,111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,861.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +121%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb917…02c6backed No | 55c | 28,130$15,571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,570.9 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe946…4cc4backed Yes | 14c | 27,565$3,931 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,634.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +133.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked Yes | 57c | 27,026$15,444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,582.73 | 161 | 25.5%41 W · 120 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa8…9b4bbacked Yes | 67c | 26,621$17,836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,784.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +28%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dea…e49fbacked Yes | 14c | 26,274$3,555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,719.5 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x991b…f19abacked Yes | 62c | 25,602$15,774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,828.64 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaef…e647backed Yes | 80c | 25,002$20,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,001.57 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.47per pick | 28cpaid | +318.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 49c | 24,438$11,961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,476.18 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3801…cbe8backed Yes | 43c | 24,176$10,392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,784.07 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe52…07dabacked Yes | 74c | 23,766$17,573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,192.88 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 40c | 23,407$9,401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,401.39 | 261 | 38.7%101 W · 160 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 13c | 23,312$3,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,060.03 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…5ad0backed No | 3c | 23,165$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd64e…5516backed No | 43c | 22,981$9,983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,982.71 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed No | 52c | 21,297$11,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,038.43 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fd…ac69backed No | 1c | 20,782$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 56c | 20,352$11,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,932.27 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 23c | 19,999$4,673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,325.42 | 170 | 18.2%31 W · 139 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95c8…b6b4backed No | 50c | 19,919$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa2…3170backed No | 31c | 19,686$6,174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,174.39 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +8.3wins | +0.21per pick | 25cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed No | 33c | 19,494$6,472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,472.11 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3709…82a5backed Yes | 70c | 19,441$13,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,761.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 25c | 19,372$4,924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,924.35 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56c9…afe7backed Yes | 41c | 19,185$7,820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,365.32 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.33per pick | 30cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b12…43c8backed Yes | 61c | 18,661$11,435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,225.5 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…bfa2backed Yes | 46c | 18,508$8,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,009.49 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06d0…254fbacked Yes | 68c | 18,092$12,393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,699.41 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed No | 28c | 17,993$5,057 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,057.24 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…c855backed Yes | 48c | 17,500$8,373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,127 | 106 | 39.6%42 W · 64 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc035…5efbbacked No | 54c | 17,318$9,292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,291.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed3…b19ebacked No | 57c | 17,221$9,763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,762.63 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 10cpaid | +35%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3b…6bc3backed No | 15c | 17,204$2,625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,625.44 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 19c | 17,128$3,272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,271.98 | 322 | 43.5%140 W · 182 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74db…4ca5backed Yes | 66c | 17,000$11,187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,813.45 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 69c | 16,621$11,431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,430.93 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5ff5…60abbacked No | 36c | 16,220$5,903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,903.13 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x934c…cd38backed Yes | 67c | 16,174$10,873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,300.95 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +11.0wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 20c | 16,160$3,267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,266.52 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d3…746cbacked Yes | 70c | 16,028$11,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,868.01 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.44per pick | 64cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 27c | 15,888$4,239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,239.35 | 223 | 33.6%75 W · 148 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb997…8734backed No | 1c | 15,852$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.15 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -5.2wins | -0.30per pick | 42cpaid | -85%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed No | 49c | 15,836$7,720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,719.57 | 134 | 41.8%56 W · 78 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44f4…f44ebacked No | 0c | 15,700$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1bf…f74bbacked Yes | 65c | 15,411$9,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,411.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…932cbacked No | 60c | 15,403$9,245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,244.82 | 112 | 8.9%10 W · 102 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +149.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x996c…a131backed Yes | 51c | 15,065$7,684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,381.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb005…e690backed Yes | 49c | 15,007$7,428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,579.01 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 73c | 14,881$10,799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,082.27 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3f…36b6backed Yes | 68c | 14,837$10,072 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,764.83 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 19cpaid | +86.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed Yes | 56c | 14,575$8,136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,438.78 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 40 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?this page
- Will Abbas Araghchi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Ahmad Khatami be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Ahmad Vahidi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Ali Asghar Hejazi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Ali Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Ali Motahari be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Hashem Hosseini Bushehri be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Hassan Rouhani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Hassan Shariatmadari be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Khalil Mobasher Kashani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Maryam Rajavi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Masoud Pezeshkian be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Massoud Rajavi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Mohammad Hadi Ghazanfari Khansari be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Mohammad Khatami be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Mohammad Yasrebi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Mohammad-Reza Modarresi Yazdi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Mohsen Araki be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Mohsen Qomi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Mostafa Pourmohammadi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Muhammad Mirbaqiri be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Mustafa Hijri be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Nasir Hosseini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Navid Shomali be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Reza Pahlavi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Reza Pirzadeh be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Sadegh Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Sadegh Mahsouli be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Saeed Jalili be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Seyed Hossein Mousavian be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?No won
- Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.