Middle East · resolved market
Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ec3aeb17ed772301206b766dc42fddb75754dd56ba688bb714e09b0bf900f38
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,644,416
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,048,318
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,644,416 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 362 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xddda…d326backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ad…a5cabacked Yes | 4c | 51,800$1,982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,982.34 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 45cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 4c | 51,738$2,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,014.16 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c4…978fbacked Yes | 0c | 48,074$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.54 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 4c | 47,817$2,082 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,082.35 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5a…0122backed Yes | 6c | 42,255$2,672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,672 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1934…0a4bbacked Yes | 4c | 31,487$1,279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,278.9 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ff5…60abbacked Yes | 2c | 27,978$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.3 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 1c | 25,348$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.98 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6962…745ebacked Yes | 6c | 20,899$1,297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,297.41 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 20,603$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.21 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 3c | 20,474$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685.45 | 72 | 1.4%1 W · 71 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4135…e462backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b60…f259backed Yes | 3c | 20,000$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.37 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa10…1c0fbacked Yes | 2c | 19,024$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.85 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 1c | 17,693$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.51 | 197 | 6.6%13 W · 184 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f90…90ccbacked Yes | 6c | 16,322$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +32%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9612…205abacked Yes | 3c | 15,000$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.99 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…ba97backed Yes | 5c | 12,886$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.68 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 0c | 11,991$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 71 | 31%22 W · 49 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 11,795$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.3 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 1c | 11,777$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.53 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b4…a85abacked Yes | 1c | 11,674$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 15cpaid | +196.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd39…a8b2backed Yes | 5c | 11,616$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74c2…7b05backed Yes | 3c | 11,583$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65e0…9406backed Yes | 5c | 11,162$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.49 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…42aabacked Yes | 6c | 11,091$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 10,925$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.47 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe236…b1b1backed Yes | 5c | 10,673$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…4393backed Yes | 4c | 10,614$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.82 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x656c…2241backed Yes | 6c | 10,520$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 3c | 10,166$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.94 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…5ad0backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.55 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54a5…ee3dbacked Yes | 7c | 10,000$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce18…4572backed Yes | 3c | 10,000$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15a6…bf5dbacked Yes | 2c | 9,690$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.36 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x410a…2643backed Yes | 3c | 9,418$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.97 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -4.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4c69…f2d9backed Yes | 4c | 9,408$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.62 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ea…e9e7backed Yes | 3c | 9,254$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.53 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 3c | 9,029$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.29 | 64 | 9.4%6 W · 58 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb917…02c6backed Yes | 9c | 8,463$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…a262backed Yes | 5c | 8,292$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.97 | 54 | 7.4%4 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9eb…9701backed Yes | 4c | 8,227$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71a8…3b90backed Yes | 5c | 7,888$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.78 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3df…f557backed Yes | 7c | 7,800$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.13 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 4c | 7,119$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.8 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 5c | 7,098$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.07 | 199 | 5%10 W · 189 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2428…1e86backed Yes | 9c | 6,792$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.8 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeae7…a48cbacked Yes | 1c | 6,751$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.97 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x828c…a8a2backed Yes | 1c | 6,423$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.44 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 4cpaid | +190.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked Yes | 2c | 6,327$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.28 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -7.3wins | -0.25per pick | 46cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…cfb5backed Yes | 1c | 5,784$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.39 | 37 | 2.7%1 W · 36 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x806b…cd57backed Yes | 6c | 5,661$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.25 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e85…8aaabacked Yes | 3c | 5,643$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.61 | 75 | 17.3%13 W · 62 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 5,525$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.7 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa64…a43dbacked Yes | 10c | 5,375$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.14 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | +8.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30a7…02fabacked Yes | 6c | 5,090$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.71 | 85 | 15.3%13 W · 72 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65bf…4b91backed Yes | 10c | 5,036$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.73 | 92 | 17.4%16 W · 76 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ae…f471backed Yes | 5c | 5,000$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03d1…ffaabacked Yes | 4c | 4,947$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.84 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +5.7wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c0…a68dbacked Yes | 10c | 4,828$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.31 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 0c | 4,747$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 106 | 34%36 W · 70 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21e8…0d48backed Yes | 3c | 4,636$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 22cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfab6…e6bebacked Yes | 2c | 4,601$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.01 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 4c | 4,433$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.71 | 123 | 25.2%31 W · 92 L | +15.2wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9724…fbc7backed Yes | 2c | 4,364$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.62 | 76 | 10.5%8 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e2f…067bbacked Yes | 4c | 4,281$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb9…4f81backed Yes | 7c | 4,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd4…194bbacked Yes | 5c | 4,000$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.31 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x444c…9d2ebacked Yes | 6c | 3,965$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.7 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes | 0c | 3,895$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | +97.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69d1…b1b9backed Yes | 7c | 3,754$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +4.4wins | +0.23per pick | 30cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 4c | 3,693$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.13 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e49…f1afbacked Yes | 2c | 3,610$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.95 | 229 | 27.1%62 W · 167 L | -12.8wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -43%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x142c…316bbacked Yes | 3c | 3,278$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.04 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2b…5752backed Yes | 3c | 3,267$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -7.1wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c2…89abbacked Yes | 0c | 3,252$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb01f…574ebacked Yes | 7c | 3,202$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.01 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +8.2wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 4c | 3,000$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0592…70e7backed Yes | 6c | 2,937$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.72 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdea3…1b1abacked Yes | 4c | 2,879$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 2c | 2,871$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.41 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa3…191bbacked Yes | 3c | 2,725$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.09 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26f9…f183backed Yes | 4c | 2,688$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0218…52c0backed Yes | 4c | 2,501$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.09 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 5c | 2,434$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.51 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff7…d747backed Yes | 4c | 2,400$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.5 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6e…8931backed Yes | 4c | 2,398$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36d1…12b4backed Yes | 4c | 2,355$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee4f…ad20backed Yes | 4c | 2,326$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35a4…7b85backed Yes | 1c | 2,322$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8392…e3a2backed Yes | 1c | 2,292$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 144 | 20.8%30 W · 114 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2e…36fdbacked Yes | 4c | 2,272$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +88.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf7…b963backed Yes | 3c | 2,178$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +21%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…7cb7backed Yes | 4c | 2,154$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc232…51b9backed Yes | 9c | 2,140$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdda5…830dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,126$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd93d…0095backed Yes | 3c | 2,111$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.34 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde83…8b00backed Yes | 7c | 2,043$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.75 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3524…2c23backed Yes | 4c | 2,025$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.86 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -54%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 40 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?this page
- Will Abbas Araghchi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Ahmad Khatami be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Ahmad Vahidi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Ali Asghar Hejazi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Ali Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Ali Motahari be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Hashem Hosseini Bushehri be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Hassan Rouhani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Hassan Shariatmadari be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Khalil Mobasher Kashani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Maryam Rajavi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Masoud Pezeshkian be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Massoud Rajavi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Mohammad Hadi Ghazanfari Khansari be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Mohammad Khatami be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Mohammad Yasrebi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Mohammad-Reza Modarresi Yazdi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Mohsen Araki be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Mohsen Qomi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?Yes won
- Will Mostafa Pourmohammadi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Muhammad Mirbaqiri be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Mustafa Hijri be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Nasir Hosseini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Navid Shomali be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Reza Pahlavi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Reza Pirzadeh be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Sadegh Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Sadegh Mahsouli be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Saeed Jalili be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will Seyed Hossein Mousavian be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No won
- Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.