Middle East · resolved market

Will Ali Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe640e037f68a5b8f0df7e5dd5fc194bba5a95dc0cbb064c29b1184f0f4496cb3

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 8, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $757,848

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $757,848 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 296 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Middle East
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x376b…d81bbacked Yes	2c	93,685$1,924 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,923.95	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.8wins	+0.28per pick	6cpaid	+156.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes	3c	46,518$1,564 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,564.11	215	21.9%47 W · 168 L	+11.6wins	+0.05per pick	16cpaid	+29.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8882…38eabacked Yes	1c	30,977$358 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$357.78	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes	1c	26,316$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$197.78	243	8.2%20 W · 223 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-47.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaf9f…f6a3backed Yes	9c	22,950$1,979 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,979.1	16	56.3%9 W · 7 L	+3.9wins	+0.25per pick	32cpaid	+37.4%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes	7c	18,348$1,225 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,224.89	358	19%68 W · 290 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-35%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes	6c	17,583$1,069 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,068.58	421	20.9%88 W · 333 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-39.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	1c	17,579$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.49	507	1.4%7 W · 500 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x73a2…4f6abacked Yes	3c	17,299$570 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$569.88	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa8f1…fee6backed Yes	2c	15,594$358 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$358.11	33	0%0 W · 33 L	-2.8wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe162…8a81backed Yes	7c	15,336$1,050 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,050.42	30	33.3%10 W · 20 L	+2.8wins	+0.09per pick	24cpaid	+38.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked Yes	5c	15,042$682 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$681.79	58	34.5%20 W · 38 L	+2.0wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x36ae…3567backed Yes	2c	14,329$233 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$232.99	40	22.5%9 W · 31 L	-5.1wins	-0.13per pick	35cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes	1c	14,200$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.75	197	6.6%13 W · 184 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes	2c	12,617$213 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$213.49	310	3.9%12 W · 298 L	+3.9wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	3c	12,304$385 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$385.34	713	5.6%40 W · 673 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3425…5698backed Yes	3c	11,838$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	+175.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54a5…ee3dbacked Yes	2c	11,420$206 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$205.56	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	+2.1wins	+0.15per pick	28cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes	3c	11,177$302 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$302.05	64	9.4%6 W · 58 L	-4.1wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-68.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes	2c	8,991$163 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$163.45	72	1.4%1 W · 71 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	4cpaid	-67.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf472…a262backed Yes	3c	8,358$263 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$263.16	54	7.4%4 W · 50 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-43.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcc22…5738backed Yes	3c	7,223$191 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$191.13	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	+0.5wins	+0.04per pick	14cpaid	+62.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes	3c	7,218$206 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$205.89	152	30.3%46 W · 106 L	+5.7wins	+0.04per pick	26cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe43f…c40bbacked Yes	5c	6,575$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	+0.5wins	+0.04per pick	35cpaid	+75.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b90…4ebabacked Yes	2c	6,450$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155	34	8.8%3 W · 31 L	+1.4wins	+0.04per pick	5cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	6,284$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.22	1,558	7.2%112 W · 1,446 L	-35.1wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7dc1…d84dbacked Yes	6c	6,214$382 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$382.43	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-81.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes	3c	6,051$177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176.57	371	7%26 W · 345 L	+10.6wins	+0.03per pick	4cpaid	+13.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7acd…1086backed Yes	3c	6,029$171 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170.58	148	8.1%12 W · 136 L	+4.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	+238.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed Yes	2c	6,000$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114	83	33.7%28 W · 55 L	+3.7wins	+0.04per pick	29cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ffb…a834backed Yes	6c	5,556$330 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$329.91	94	34%32 W · 62 L	+7.7wins	+0.08per pick	26cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	4c	5,462$194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$193.53	199	5%10 W · 189 L	+3.2wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Yes	2c	5,395$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.1	54	31.5%17 W · 37 L	+5.6wins	+0.10per pick	21cpaid	+61.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes	2c	5,384$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.61	274	2.9%8 W · 266 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	-58.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6c4c…ea0cbacked Yes	4c	5,288$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$194.81	47	34%16 W · 31 L	+5.3wins	+0.11per pick	23cpaid	+71.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3520…1fa0backed Yes	5c	5,206$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	22	18.2%4 W · 18 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-45.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x513f…041cbacked Yes	0c	5,199$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	+1.2wins	+0.08per pick	6cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5968…bfa2backed Yes	2c	5,023$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes	2c	4,766$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.55	492	8.7%43 W · 449 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes	2c	4,758$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.25	221	7.2%16 W · 205 L	+2.6wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b3a…6a54backed Yes	1c	4,721$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.05	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.5wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes	1c	4,681$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.57	270	47.8%129 W · 141 L	+2.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3eae…5e6dbacked Yes	2c	4,494$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.3	28	50%14 W · 14 L	+1.8wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa945…1679backed Yes	2c	4,443$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbf16…1ab6backed Yes	2c	4,201$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcc7e…557dbacked Yes	3c	3,988$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-2.2wins	-0.43per pick	43cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xca88…7caabacked Yes	2c	3,985$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	+4.5wins	+0.21per pick	21cpaid	+62.2%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2f1a…bfa2backed Yes	7c	3,952$291 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$291.37	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	23cpaid	-40.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xff58…99efbacked Yes	8c	3,757$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$299.9	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-1.6wins	-0.12per pick	20cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdf10…7eeebacked Yes	3c	3,650$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf16a…b564backed Yes	3c	3,591$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.46	27	14.8%4 W · 23 L	+1.5wins	+0.05per pick	9cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes	2c	3,539$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.12	170	18.2%31 W · 139 L	+5.8wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	+77.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3524…2c23backed Yes	2c	3,500$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.95	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-1.8wins	-0.10per pick	21cpaid	-54%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a3d…a325backed Yes	5c	3,484$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180.29	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Yes	16c	3,345$549 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$549.38	138	29%40 W · 98 L	-7.9wins	-0.06per pick	35cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb8d8…66a7backed Yes	6c	3,315$184 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$184.27	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+1.3wins	+0.22per pick	28cpaid	+66.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd45e…7497backed Yes	2c	3,099$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	10c	3,001$314 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$313.74	896	17.1%153 W · 743 L	-57.2wins	-0.06per pick	23cpaid	-35%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes	2c	3,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.91	61	29.5%18 W · 43 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	30cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2c2a…6f46backed Yes	2c	2,901$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.53	18	5.6%1 W · 17 L	-2.8wins	-0.16per pick	21cpaid	-91.3%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x01ea…ffbabacked Yes	2c	2,678$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	34	8.8%3 W · 31 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	+46.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfba9…cb2cbacked Yes	1c	2,600$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.8	48	12.5%6 W · 42 L	-4.1wins	-0.08per pick	21cpaid	+102.9%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xef7e…e1b1backed Yes	2c	2,563$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	-47.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfe0c…04b6backed Yes	8c	2,550$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$197.5	23	39.1%9 W · 14 L	+2.1wins	+0.09per pick	30cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb6eb…cee6backed Yes	4c	2,509$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-45.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes	6c	2,432$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.83	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-1.3wins	-0.09per pick	17cpaid	-91.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7164…7ff7backed Yes	4c	2,398$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	28	21.4%6 W · 22 L	-1.5wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-46.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x594a…906ebacked Yes	2c	2,392$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	15	20%3 W · 12 L	+0.8wins	+0.05per pick	15cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x06e0…155ebacked Yes	19c	2,350$458 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$458.15	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.4wins	+0.10per pick	15cpaid	0%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes	3c	2,338$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.72	126	16.7%21 W · 105 L	+6.1wins	+0.05per pick	12cpaid	+41%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c69…51cabacked Yes	2c	2,310$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	135	18.5%25 W · 110 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	17cpaid	-16%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x27a9…3e0ebacked Yes	2c	2,265$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1db3…d49bbacked Yes	2c	2,239$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	28	21.4%6 W · 22 L	-1.9wins	-0.07per pick	28cpaid	-60%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd33…cbbbbacked Yes	1c	2,211$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b12…fc00backed Yes	2c	2,144$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5bb…3849backed Yes	3c	2,125$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.87	19	36.8%7 W · 12 L	+2.0wins	+0.11per pick	26cpaid	+82.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6602…2ea3backed Yes	3c	2,034$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1601…88dbbacked Yes	3c	2,000$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.2	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.4wins	+0.07per pick	9cpaid	+377%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf96a…683ebacked Yes	3c	2,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59a7…34e6backed Yes	2c	1,968$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.59	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-1.7wins	-0.22per pick	34cpaid	-79.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes	4c	1,929$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.83	218	31.2%68 W · 150 L	+6.3wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe47c…3afabacked Yes	2c	1,844$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbb82…68ecbacked Yes	2c	1,777$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.5	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.8wins	+0.26per pick	7cpaid	+236.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d62…4b5cbacked Yes	3c	1,702$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-1.6wins	-0.12per pick	20cpaid	-88.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa7f4…88e6backed Yes	2c	1,701$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.16	18	0%0 W · 18 L	-1.9wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x77fc…0eacbacked Yes	2c	1,700$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.3	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8c21…adafbacked Yes	1c	1,677$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.09	10	30%3 W · 7 L	+1.4wins	+0.14per pick	16cpaid	+213.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc4de…424cbacked Yes	3c	1,677$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58	94	36.2%34 W · 60 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	-18.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x993c…6787backed Yes	3c	1,650$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.96	177	37.3%66 W · 111 L	+5.1wins	+0.03per pick	34cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x892d…14b0backed Yes	3c	1,627$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.88	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97c9…e71cbacked Yes	2c	1,621$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	+1.5wins	+0.09per pick	3cpaid	+305.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1b9…ee44backed Yes	6c	1,609$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58b3…fe06backed Yes	6c	1,572$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.32	31	35.5%11 W · 20 L	-1.4wins	-0.05per pick	40cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	1c	1,560$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.01	129	32.6%42 W · 87 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	34cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf06…4799backed Yes	2c	1,524$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	41	12.2%5 W · 36 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	+71.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0915…d08abacked Yes	17c	1,507$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260.08	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-1.6wins	-0.17per pick	28cpaid	-74.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xee4f…ad20backed Yes	7c	1,493$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfea6…a363backed Yes	5c	1,492$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	44	22.7%10 W · 34 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf398…9e0ebacked Yes	3c	1,481$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.8wins	-0.08per pick	18cpaid	-77.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ecc…8422backed Yes	2c	1,469$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	23	13%3 W · 20 L	-2.5wins	-0.11per pick	24cpaid	-72.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 40 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Ali Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event