TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x6c4c…ea0c

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
206
Categories scored
17
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Middle East, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 58 out of 100; worst Stocks at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT4734%16 W · 31 L+5.3wins+0.11per pick23cpaid+71.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Middle East — the 47 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$544Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$543.89
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$147Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+444.2%+$653
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$143
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+233.3%+$105
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$65.99
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.93
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+2,798.6%+$965.5
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$152.5
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$118Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$118
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$271Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$271.07
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$92
Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$78.53
Will Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.78
Will Ali Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$195Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$194.81
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+300%+$225
Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$36
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$87Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+244.8%+$213
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$1,560Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+110.1%+$1,717.91
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$354Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+428.7%+$1,516.29
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$49
Israel strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+123.4%+$81.27
US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$154Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$154
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$2,045Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$2,045.08
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$262Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$261.99
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$46.05
Showing 25 of 47 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 3, 2026, EDT4233.3%14 W · 28 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 42 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Waymo operate in 11 cities on June 30 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$375Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$374.71
Will Waymo operate in 8 cities on June 30 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$364Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$364.31
Will Waymo operate in 9 cities on June 30 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.56
Will Waymo operate in 10 cities on June 30 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$51.6
Will Waymo operate in 12 or more cities on June 30 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$390Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$389.54
Will Waymo operate in 6 cities on June 30 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$113Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+59.8%+$67.6
Will Waymo operate in 7 cities on June 30 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$216Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+64.2%+$138.55
Will Waymo launch in Las Vegas by June 30 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$410Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$409.55
Will Waymo launch in Detroit by June 30 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$128Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$127.86
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$1,705Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+40%+$681.6
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$14.5
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.4
Will Tesla deliver between 375000 and 400000 vehicles in Q1 2026backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.96
Will Tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in Q1 2026backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT+147.2%+$109.57
Will Tesla deliver between 350000 and 375000 vehicles in Q1 2026backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$267Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT+518.2%+$1,383.95
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$1,508Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,507.69
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$392Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+44.2%+$173.26
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$216Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$215.69
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$1,235Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+115.5%+$1,426.78
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$126Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$125.82
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$456Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST+86.4%+$393.92
Will Tesla deliver between 475000 and 500000 vehicles in Q4 2025backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$66.51
Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q4 2025backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$74.89
Will Tesla deliver between 425000 and 450000 vehicles in Q4 2025backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$67.67
Will Tesla deliver between 375000 and 400000 vehicles in Q4 2025backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST+29.9%+$8.66
Showing 25 of 42 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT3622.2%8 W · 28 L-4.0wins-0.11per pick33cpaid-28.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
Stocks — the 36 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $430 end of July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $420 end of July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$375Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$375.33
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $400 end of July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$61
Will Tesla reach $465 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Will Tesla reach $450 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$129Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$129.05
Will Tesla dip to $383 in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$129Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+62.7%+$80.9
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $430 end of February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$122Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$121.8
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $440 end of February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$241Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$241.1
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $450 end of February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$295Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$295.34
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $460 end of February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$166Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$166.09
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $390 end of February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$116Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+41.9%+$48.75
Will Tesla (TSLA) close at >$440 on the final day of trading of the week of Feb 2 – Feb 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$204Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$204
Will Tesla dip to $405 in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$104.5
Will Tesla dip to $405 in January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$405Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+50.6%+$205.22
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $430 end of January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$229Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+79.8%+$182.51
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $440 end of January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$22
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $450 end of January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$316Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$316.14
Will Tesla dip to $428 in January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST-100%-$52.44
Will Tesla (TSLA) close at <$465 on the final day of trading of the week of Dec 29 – Jan 2?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$33
Will Tesla (TSLA) close at >$510 on the final day of trading of the week of Dec 29 – Jan 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$24
Will Tesla (TSLA) hit $505 before 2026??backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$234Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$234.46
Will Tesla reach $503 in December?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$117Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+122.2%+$143.3
Will Tesla (TSLA) close at >$500 in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$88.06
Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $450–475 in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+317.4%+$116.88
Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $475–500 in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$66.42
Showing 25 of 36 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST2123.8%5 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick24cpaid-30.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the U.S. collect between $200b and $500b in revenue in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$248Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$247.6
Will the U.S. collect between $100b and $200b in revenue in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$474Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$474.3
Will tariffs generate >$250b in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$587Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$587.01
Gov Shutdown Odds >90% Friday Night (12-1 AM)?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$69.1
Will Trump visit Israel again by Dec 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$54.36
Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$76.54
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$18.13
Will Trump create a tariff dividend in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$354Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$353.88
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+203%+$67
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$117Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+87.3%+$101.93
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on November 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on November 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$118Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST-100%-$117.69
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 25% on November 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST-100%-$79.03
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST-100%-$17
Will the Government shutdown end November 4-7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST-100%-$17.2
Will the Government shutdown end October 31-November 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$40.78
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with India in October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$21
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$29
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$441Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+38.9%+$171.33
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT+593.6%+$102.69
US government shutdown in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+30.2%+$11.6
All 21 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick18cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.9
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.9
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$174Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+129.9%+$226
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$137Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+244.8%+$335.34
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$173Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$172.9
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$46
Will Trump meet with Putin by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$53.11
EU agrees use of Russian assets to fund Ukraine by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$66
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+608%+$402.05
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$237Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$236.88
EU agrees use of Russian assets to fund Ukraine by December 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$39.19
Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$38.2
Will Trump meet with Putin by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$126Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$126.28
All 13 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT100%0 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
NBA — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$265Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$265.39
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$133Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$133.18
Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$85.1
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$219Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$219.08
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.18
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.92
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.29
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$127Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$126.56
Will the Boston Celtics win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$179.8
Will Boston Celtics advance to the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.01
All 10 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+64%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 20, 2026, EST728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+64.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-78.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Dec 2, 2025, EST450%2 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+98%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+11.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Oct 11, 2025, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.81per pick19cpaid+432.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$282Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+432.4%+$1,219.22
All 1 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Nov 22, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will annual inflation increase by 3.0% in October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST+92.3%+$48
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$461Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+46.1%+$212.53
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Liberal Democratic Party win 250 or more seats in the 2026 Japanese snap general election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$131Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+34.4%+$45.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Oct 22, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Earnings — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$467Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$467.42
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.