TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,617,197
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$12,614,487

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,617,197 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 138 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6480…8dc5backed Yes0c2,709,777$6,861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,860.66234.3%1 W · 22 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick2cpaid-87.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb41a…3a25backed Yes0c1,795,522$3,591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,591.0490%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06eb…b2e7backed Yes0c671,341$1,561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,561.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa61e…0abdbacked Yes0c647,394$1,046 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,046.06140%0 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d6…d65fbacked Yes0c401,420$924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$924.3740%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05da…ae41backed Yes0c299,995$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.9970%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8298…b978backed Yes0c206,998$748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$747.9918315.3%28 W · 155 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick9cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf0ec…6064backed Yes0c206,051$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$518.1590%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6e9…7415backed Yes1c200,346$2,344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,344.4520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb2e…3af7backed Yes0c144,559$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x187b…acdcbacked Yes0c131,912$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.9120%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b0b…5e43backed Yes0c119,999$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150130%0 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x972a…21cdbacked Yes0c116,750$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.75425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-21.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50a5…bafebacked Yes0c105,227$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.8723411.1%26 W · 208 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1bbd…3bc0backed Yes1c104,374$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$650.27120%0 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2501…5a20backed Yes1c100,000$751 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$750.9140%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9540…fca5backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88ac…f0d9backed Yes1c97,589$614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$614.0730%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x088d…773dbacked Yes0c89,813$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe81e…ad8fbacked Yes1c82,748$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.1240%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76c8…ecd4backed Yes1c79,431$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.2190%0 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8933…be35backed Yes0c74,841$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes0c72,028$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.588010%8 W · 72 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-52%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7905…3a92backed Yes1c58,644$744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$743.8130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeec3…7a81backed Yes1c54,164$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0551…a287backed Yes1c52,154$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb10…84dabacked Yes0c50,667$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca6e…141bbacked Yes1c45,074$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.081910.5%2 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick8cpaid+339.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01a8…9f9abacked Yes0c43,649$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.6110%0 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7690…6f97backed Yes0c42,600$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf928…2a10backed Yes1c40,872$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.0620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfa3…7e1cbacked Yes1c40,638$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3841315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-55.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3697…f189backed Yes1c40,000$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.4320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88fe…e618backed Yes1c36,725$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0d9…94c6backed Yes0c35,000$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1257020%14 W · 56 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x76d1…e9c1backed Yes0c33,333$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe278…640fbacked Yes0c33,333$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6cdf…5bc1backed Yes0c30,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+28.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf3f…16a6backed Yes1c30,000$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2707810.3%8 W · 70 L-0.3wins0.00per pick11cpaid-33.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd817…ac33backed Yes0c30,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7ab…9baabacked Yes0c29,999$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6a3…5e28backed Yes0c26,395$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.58520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-69.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x329d…0ec7backed Yes0c24,000$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47531.9%1 W · 52 L-0.1wins0.00per pick2cpaid-97.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb807…99cbbacked Yes0c22,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80541.9%1 W · 53 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick7cpaid-69.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xead4…12dfbacked Yes0c21,730$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb1b…bc90backed Yes0c21,000$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39a5…c9a1backed Yes2c20,806$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50050%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x17d6…e3edbacked Yes1c20,624$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick22cpaid-72.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x13cb…a48abacked Yes1c20,194$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.429913.1%13 W · 86 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-54.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbee0…aa9fbacked Yes0c20,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ecb…d40dbacked Yes0c20,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe8c…ad4bbacked Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e16…a70ebacked Yes0c19,972$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08a3…a3a6backed Yes1c19,074$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.6460%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x78f9…ff16backed Yes1c18,475$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2feb…b324backed Yes1c18,000$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1332516%4 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick16cpaid+15.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87bd…4c30backed Yes1c16,712$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.7140%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9220…8585backed Yes0c16,000$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1660%0 W · 6 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes0c16,000$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521519.9%15 W · 136 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick6cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x47ee…4ab8backed Yes1c15,174$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.6690%0 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes0c15,000$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353013.3%4 W · 26 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick7cpaid-63.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ef9…afacbacked Yes1c14,255$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.038619.8%17 W · 69 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4969…aa74backed Yes1c14,053$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x598f…fda0backed Yes0c13,913$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.89911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick3cpaid+226.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf05…5860backed Yes0c12,500$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x615e…5295backed Yes1c12,049$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.342270.9%2 W · 225 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-94.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x83e1…099bbacked Yes1c11,497$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b60…ca90backed Yes0c11,333$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3ed…ce35backed Yes1c11,106$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9530%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c10,872$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.751,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f19…5a92backed Yes0c10,500$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2493…e05dbacked Yes1c10,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5186…4c85backed Yes1c9,839$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b3f…003bbacked Yes1c9,652$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.5740%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5ca0…d4c7backed Yes1c9,632$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.16120%0 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1959…b099backed Yes1c8,718$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ea3…c8efbacked Yes1c8,334$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd23…f8bdbacked Yes0c7,838$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x937c…ac0bbacked Yes1c7,600$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e03…14eabacked Yes0c7,260$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b6f…3ef7backed Yes0c7,000$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ca1…72aebacked Yes1c6,900$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.970%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc212…f53ebacked Yes0c6,667$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc8f…368fbacked Yes0c6,650$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7747…cb45backed Yes0c6,600$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes1c6,600$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.65837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.23per pick15cpaid+2,527.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x47d0…5438backed Yes1c6,067$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.8760%0 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f5e…b5ecbacked Yes0c6,039$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc61a…8e82backed Yes1c6,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50492%1 W · 48 L-0.2wins0.00per pick2cpaid-83.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce66…55b9backed Yes1c5,900$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.430%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0774…da5dbacked Yes1c5,886$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.22100%0 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x786f…f147backed Yes1c5,838$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3f8…3cd4backed Yes0c5,555$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7563…b717backed Yes1c5,428$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x807e…50d6backed Yes0c5,250$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.25180%0 W · 18 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f2a…de7dbacked Yes1c5,200$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.6812012.5%15 W · 105 L-8.9wins-0.07per pick20cpaid-55.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8367…7bc7backed Yes1c5,018$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-44.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x927d…301abacked Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a41…a88cbacked Yes0c5,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-47.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeec0…37c1backed Yes1c5,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25220%0 W · 22 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.