TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin dip to $112k in October?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$258,875
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$234,771

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $258,875 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x832d…d420backed No64c35,039$22,544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,543.78757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6916…2fd4backed Yes34c19,848$6,830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,018.2663835.4%226 W · 412 L+18.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-26.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes32c15,646$4,930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,716.3837745.9%173 W · 204 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf705…3ca7backed Yes28c14,287$3,935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,352.5435123.9%84 W · 267 L+15.9wins+0.05per pick19cpaid-36.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa279…0371backed No44c13,887$6,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,095.145444.4%24 W · 30 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-27.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9066…c20abacked Yes59c13,474$8,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,469.8915561.9%96 W · 59 L+19.8wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+13.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x9af5…da0abacked No58c12,390$7,221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,221.261931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick38cpaid+67.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf98b…bfc5backed Yes31c8,500$2,667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,832.724654.9%135 W · 111 L+16.5wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+8.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd574…425dbacked No57c7,583$4,299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,298.982875%21 W · 7 L+3.9wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+31.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf69b…0a45backed Yes25c7,280$1,805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,475.879927.3%27 W · 72 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-25.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes38c7,267$2,780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,487.1755032.5%179 W · 371 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb99d…1cfabacked Yes34c6,695$2,291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,404.494736.2%17 W · 30 L+4.2wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+6.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfeb5…a393backed Yes55c6,232$3,405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,827.0616761.7%103 W · 64 L+19.6wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+36.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd643…0dd4backed No24c6,000$1,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,44010545.7%48 W · 57 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-5.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5df3…bbadbacked Yes43c4,000$1,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,2802532%8 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-23.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0856…dd1abacked Yes26c4,000$1,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,959.974555.6%25 W · 20 L+7.5wins+0.17per pick39cpaid+47.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xb4e6…da22backed Yes29c3,447$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,446.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+244.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc9dc…9026backed No72c3,000$2,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,149.991833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-46%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed No49c2,999$1,466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,466.31333.8%5 W · 128 L-10.2wins-0.08per pick11cpaid-83.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd68e…4afdbacked Yes41c2,439$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,439.022744.4%12 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid+17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b42…4eb6backed Yes33c2,229$728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,500.921040%4 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+28.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb5fc…5ca4backed Yes22c2,190$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,704.7625824%62 W · 196 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc53c…0eb4backed Yes41c2,083$859 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,223.867652.6%40 W · 36 L+6.7wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+20.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x018a…cec9backed Yes30c1,999$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,399.4612100%12 W · 0 L+8.4wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+301.4%equal weight75+0.23 edge/pick
0x7120…af58backed No44c1,782$784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$784.251735.3%6 W · 11 L-3.8wins-0.22per pick57cpaid-48.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb6c6…043dbacked Yes31c1,729$532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,196.9311316.8%19 W · 94 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-42.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5f5…ea4ebacked Yes27c1,600$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,16818425%46 W · 138 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-20.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc453…2bcdbacked Yes40c1,400$566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8345554.5%30 W · 25 L+5.2wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+38.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa366…54efbacked Yes40c1,400$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84015754.8%86 W · 71 L+8.8wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x220a…1795backed No62c1,393$866 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$866.412138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-33.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9615…38acbacked Yes49c1,233$604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$628.171428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-38.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes27c1,194$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$876.098920.2%18 W · 71 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick15cpaid-23.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf575…1602backed No75c1,061$796 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$796.07366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a55…cfc4backed Yes42c1,050$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$606.55156.9%29 W · 22 L+5.9wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+34%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed No47c1,050$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493.53831.6%12 W · 26 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0a5…2ef6backed Yes31c1,000$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6907949.4%39 W · 40 L+10.2wins+0.13per pick36cpaid+35.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x707e…1960backed Yes52c889.21$464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$424.8722550.2%113 W · 112 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes52c877.34$452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.3487828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb49…a376backed Yes36c800$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5164845.8%22 W · 26 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6650…71b6backed No80c750.73$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6003345.5%15 W · 18 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes15c750$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$637.59824.5%24 W · 74 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick22cpaid-23.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01d1…8c91backed No79c750$593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$592.51926.3%5 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-47.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8cf4…5608backed Yes26c750$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5551560%9 W · 6 L+2.6wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x56db…171cbacked Yes21c681.95$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$540.951747.1%8 W · 9 L+5.6wins+0.33per pick14cpaid+200.3%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x10fb…c66cbacked Yes20c575.69$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$460.5511554.8%63 W · 52 L+15.1wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+15.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x97a7…49f7backed Yes26c500$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3709546.3%44 W · 51 L-4.5wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-20.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x781e…2484backed Yes44c499.99$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.23per pick37cpaid+25.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6e8b…e99fbacked No30c460.41$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.677642.1%32 W · 44 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a58…3464backed Yes36c433.56$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.48540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x630c…1230backed Yes28c400$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.42per pick24cpaid+114.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8298…b978backed Yes20c400$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32018315.3%28 W · 155 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick9cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd687…c066backed Yes39c374.99$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.496100%6 W · 0 L+4.4wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+341.5%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xdfee…64bbbacked No79c300$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237520%1 W · 4 L-2.2wins-0.45per pick65cpaid-68.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9cae…1537backed No69c300$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.31per pick56cpaid+23.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xea0a…8340backed Yes49c290.9$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.45425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-48.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b2f…cd03backed Yes77c259.74$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.743056.7%17 W · 13 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x15a9…6b43backed Yes21c240$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1892339.1%9 W · 14 L+5.8wins+0.25per pick14cpaid+155.6%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x2e10…19fcbacked No73c217.68$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.16520%1 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.40per pick60cpaid-73.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0282…d571backed Yes35c215.51$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.081533.3%5 W · 10 L+2.4wins+0.16per pick17cpaid-0.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf14e…86efbacked Yes20c198.14$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.143721.6%8 W · 29 L+4.1wins+0.11per pick11cpaid+36.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe2a0…9684backed No53c188.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003844.7%17 W · 21 L-7.7wins-0.20per pick65cpaid-35%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0xc728…9c2dbacked No68c175.88$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1201764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.4wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+13.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb9ca…7ce5backed Yes59c169$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.291963.2%12 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick60cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa289…b412backed Yes62c161.29$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.296575.4%49 W · 16 L+9.0wins+0.14per pick62cpaid+19.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x637d…2392backed Yes32c150$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1027048.6%34 W · 36 L+13.9wins+0.20per pick29cpaid+58.8%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x1102…af36backed No74c140$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.611658.6%68 W · 48 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked No48c132$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.78239%32 W · 50 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-17.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5916…8d4fbacked Yes78c128.21$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.21450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32f4…c885backed Yes26c125.65$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.653531.4%11 W · 24 L+3.5wins+0.10per pick22cpaid+2.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6256…7181backed Yes61c121.18$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.26250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8a6…eb5ebacked No47c100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4720%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x28ad…b2d3backed Yes18c100$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$825639.3%22 W · 34 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick34cpaid-23.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xda14…a40cbacked No74c99.99$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.993237.5%12 W · 20 L-11.2wins-0.35per pick72cpaid-50.3%equal weight28-0.20 edge/pick
0xa557…5e8abacked Yes25c99.99$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.9910545.7%48 W · 57 L+22.9wins+0.22per pick24cpaid+94.2%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x507c…4166backed No77c98.13$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.917835.9%28 W · 50 L-5.3wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-8.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1ec4…defabacked Yes51c96.94$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.763458.8%20 W · 14 L+3.8wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+15.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x43e8…5ba4backed No28c87.8$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251030%0 W · 103 L-7.9wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4312…a388backed Yes18c83.33$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.33540%2 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick22cpaid+95.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4eb8…9231backed Yes61c80.64$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.827357.5%42 W · 31 L+5.9wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9e14…5adabacked Yes31c78$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.212050%10 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+26.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c57…eb35backed No65c70$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.56464.1%41 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x059c…39ecbacked Yes30c70$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4853…339ebacked Yes28c69.89$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.321136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc12…bcecbacked Yes29c69.83$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.83475%3 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.43per pick32cpaid+113.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbb3c…5bd0backed Yes22c69$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.824100%4 W · 0 L+2.5wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+240.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcb3e…b094backed No63c65.16$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412245.5%10 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+11.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2134…0734backed Yes32c60$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+209.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1630…e3fdbacked Yes35c57.65$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.651952.6%10 W · 9 L+6.1wins+0.32per pick21cpaid+187.6%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xb824…bbcfbacked Yes27c54$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.56434.4%22 W · 42 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x659a…60ebbacked No48c52.2$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252343.5%10 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-25.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x00f7…4476backed No65c50$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.520%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb4a0…2f88backed Yes23c50$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.52231.8%7 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-32.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8c82…4e09backed Yes26c50$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373655.6%20 W · 16 L+8.0wins+0.22per pick33cpaid+114.9%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x83ce…835cbacked Yes61c45.68$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.6126274.4%195 W · 67 L+45.7wins+0.17per pick57cpaid+31.7%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xb3e0…8bb9backed Yes50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204100%4 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+94.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x396e…de17backed Yes56c40$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.42857.1%16 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-11.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfbfd…0029backed Yes50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick36cpaid-21.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1d0…438dbacked Yes50c39.42$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.7130531.1%95 W · 210 L+0.8wins0.00per pick31cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ee2…46e1backed Yes59c26.61$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.9140643.3%176 W · 230 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3198…7ff7backed No52c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.41136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.