TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin dip to $108k in October?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$397,224
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$398,397

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $397,224 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0774…da5dbacked No0c135,000$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.75100%0 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x28ae…15e0backed Yes24c20,426$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,4261822.2%4 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+29.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6916…2fd4backed Yes24c17,887$4,318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,569.3963835.4%226 W · 412 L+18.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-26.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9981…dec4backed No73c14,120$10,302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,302.361573.3%11 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick72cpaid+0.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa279…0371backed No47c13,957$6,599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,599.465444.4%24 W · 30 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-27.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes26c13,437$3,559 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,877.6837745.9%173 W · 204 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x17db…5f6dbacked Yes24c12,660$3,019 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,640.88560%3 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick34cpaid+72.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf705…3ca7backed Yes19c11,009$2,134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,874.9135123.9%84 W · 267 L+15.9wins+0.05per pick19cpaid-36.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2154…715cbacked No68c11,000$7,465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,4652142.9%9 W · 12 L-2.9wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-35.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9066…c20abacked No69c10,587$7,324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,323.6815561.9%96 W · 59 L+19.8wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+13.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes22c9,926$2,172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,754.2155032.5%179 W · 371 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4178…0de1backed Yes22c9,725$2,139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,585.446100%6 W · 0 L+3.7wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+238.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xb5fc…5ca4backed Yes23c7,879$1,812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,066.9125824%62 W · 196 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0856…dd1abacked Yes15c7,000$1,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,949.974555.6%25 W · 20 L+7.5wins+0.17per pick39cpaid+47.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xf98b…bfc5backed No77c6,858$5,292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,292.1824654.9%135 W · 111 L+16.5wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+8.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x33c2…9818backed Yes30c6,453$1,951 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,502.874242.9%18 W · 24 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa5c3…1f5fbacked No78c6,409$4,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,999.022334.8%8 W · 15 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick44cpaid+9.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc453…2bcdbacked No76c3,400$2,586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5865554.5%30 W · 25 L+5.2wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+38.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x35fa…2bd4backed Yes22c3,000$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,350.712347.8%11 W · 12 L+5.1wins+0.22per pick26cpaid+84.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x9bbf…c59fbacked No10c3,000$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-27.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5b98…df12backed No72c3,000$2,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1601163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+19.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb99d…1cfabacked Yes24c2,695$652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,043.374736.2%17 W · 30 L+4.2wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+6.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed No75c2,100$1,578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,577.651333.8%5 W · 128 L-10.2wins-0.08per pick11cpaid-83.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x018a…cec9backed Yes17c2,000$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,659.9912100%12 W · 0 L+8.4wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+301.4%equal weight75+0.23 edge/pick
0x6b59…6445backed Yes19c1,579$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,278.951533.3%5 W · 10 L+2.4wins+0.16per pick17cpaid+110%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5df3…bbadbacked Yes29c1,500$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0702532%8 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-23.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes13c1,500$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3007219.4%14 W · 58 L+0.2wins0.00per pick19cpaid-43.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28ad…b2d3backed No11c1,281$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.435639.3%22 W · 34 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick34cpaid-23.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8298…b978backed Yes14c1,225$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,056.918315.3%28 W · 155 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick9cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe119…e30fbacked Yes12c1,060$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$933.21136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.15per pick21cpaid+168%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes28c1,010$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$729.0487828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8666…d7c7backed No76c1,000$760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7605933.9%20 W · 39 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-23.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfeb5…a393backed Yes58c1,000$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42016761.7%103 W · 64 L+19.6wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+36.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xabdc…49ffbacked No80c999.7$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799.764639.1%18 W · 28 L-4.8wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-37%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x56db…171cbacked Yes14c985.1$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$844.11747.1%8 W · 9 L+5.6wins+0.33per pick14cpaid+200.3%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xcb49…a376backed No76c900$687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6874845.8%22 W · 26 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes20c896.92$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$717.538920.2%18 W · 71 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick15cpaid-23.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa366…54efbacked No76c850$646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64615754.8%86 W · 71 L+8.8wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x707e…1960backed Yes29c786.43$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$556.3522550.2%113 W · 112 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc53c…0eb4backed No75c700$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5257652.6%40 W · 36 L+6.7wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+20.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc100…70ebbacked Yes15c663.16$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$565.16425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid+69.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes10c600$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5428010%8 W · 72 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-52%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e51…9531backed Yes19c526.32$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.32955.6%5 W · 4 L+2.9wins+0.32per pick24cpaid+127.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe2a0…9684backed No77c430$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.73844.7%17 W · 21 L-7.7wins-0.20per pick65cpaid-35%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0xda14…a40cbacked No69c399.71$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.813237.5%12 W · 20 L-11.2wins-0.35per pick72cpaid-50.3%equal weight28-0.20 edge/pick
0x15a9…6b43backed Yes12c355.99$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.912339.1%9 W · 14 L+5.8wins+0.25per pick14cpaid+155.6%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xadaf…aefdbacked Yes80c337.74$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.55728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-27.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c57…eb35backed No76c330$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.86464.1%41 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca6e…141bbacked Yes28c300$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2161910.5%2 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick8cpaid+339.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4bd0…178dbacked Yes28c300$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216540%2 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick10cpaid+1,971.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd687…c066backed Yes19c276$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.766100%6 W · 0 L+4.4wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+341.5%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x4eb8…9231backed No78c275.33$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.857357.5%42 W · 31 L+5.9wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes15c250.26$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.729824.5%24 W · 74 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick22cpaid-23.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b2f…cd03backed Yes80c250$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503056.7%17 W · 13 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x637d…2392backed Yes18c249.98$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.997048.6%34 W · 36 L+13.9wins+0.20per pick29cpaid+58.8%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0xaee1…3ceabacked Yes19c200$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1621233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb37…fbacbacked No72c200$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1442441.7%10 W · 14 L-4.0wins-0.17per pick58cpaid-38%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa663…438dbacked Yes39c199.99$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.992114.3%3 W · 18 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-36.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa557…5e8abacked Yes23c199.98$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.9810545.7%48 W · 57 L+22.9wins+0.22per pick24cpaid+94.2%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0xdeb9…807cbacked No76c196.88$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.632450%12 W · 12 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-23.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb6c6…043dbacked Yes19c180.45$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.5111316.8%19 W · 94 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-42.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2260…ad28backed No64c180$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.91225%3 W · 9 L-4.6wins-0.38per pick63cpaid-51.7%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x794c…c92bbacked Yes17c176.47$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.47250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+194.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e8b…e99fbacked No22c174$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.287642.1%32 W · 44 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x43e8…5ba4backed No18c166.72$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301030%0 W · 103 L-7.9wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x94da…2bf1backed No68c151$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.173351.5%17 W · 16 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-10.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd973…4444backed No78c150$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11750%0 W · 5 L-2.3wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5a90…f319backed Yes14c150$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1291926.3%5 W · 14 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick19cpaid+104%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2da5…9c11backed No67c149.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004042.5%17 W · 23 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-17.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4640…7137backed Yes19c131.58$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.581662.5%10 W · 6 L+4.3wins+0.27per pick36cpaid+108%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xf69b…0a45backed Yes32c120.66$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.849927.3%27 W · 72 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-25.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4bd…c6a8backed No78c114.56$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.36333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.38per pick72cpaid-48.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1102…af36backed No80c111$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.811658.6%68 W · 48 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf9f…2a46backed Yes32c100$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$687537.3%28 W · 47 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+17%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xef34…1d61backed No63c100$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6317953.6%96 W · 83 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0282…d571backed Yes24c89.54$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.051533.3%5 W · 10 L+2.4wins+0.16per pick17cpaid-0.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1378…2508backed Yes12c80.77$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.77911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c82…4e09backed Yes17c70$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.13655.6%20 W · 16 L+8.0wins+0.22per pick33cpaid+114.9%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x8d1e…51eebacked No70c57.14$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401952.6%10 W · 9 L-2.9wins-0.15per pick68cpaid-24%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd1d0…438dbacked Yes32c57.12$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.0930531.1%95 W · 210 L+0.8wins0.00per pick31cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec33…ec91backed No61c56.98$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35633.3%2 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.33per pick67cpaid-52.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4c58…e53cbacked No69c55.49$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.29450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-37%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked No70c50$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.218239%32 W · 50 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-17.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8e6…9767backed No64c49.55$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.952528%7 W · 18 L-6.0wins-0.24per pick52cpaid-46.1%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x83ce…835cbacked No78c47.73$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.2426274.4%195 W · 67 L+45.7wins+0.17per pick57cpaid+31.7%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x0b65…bec6backed No73c34.25$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick68cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x659a…60ebbacked No62c24.19$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152343.5%10 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-25.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x81e9…33d5backed No78c13$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.142360.9%14 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick71cpaid-15.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.