TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x8666…d7c7

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
101
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Lol, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Lol at 56 out of 100; worst Crypto Milestones at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT5933.9%20 W · 39 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-23.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 59 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$1,479Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+35.2%+$520.41
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$12.5
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$350Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$350
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$647Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$646.66
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$23.18
Will Lighter dip to $1.50 in January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$160
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$1,927Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$1,926.89
Will Solana dip to $120 in January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$620Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$620
Will Ethereum dip to $2,800 in January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$640Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$640
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$1,240Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST+61.3%+$760
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$630Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+58.7%+$370
Will Pump.fun hit $0.01 in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$2,938Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$2,937.54
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$112.26
Will Hyperliquid hit $70 in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$278Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+133.5%+$371.46
Will Hyperliquid hit $100 in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$863Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$862.78
Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 December 1-7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$54.1
Will Solana reach $200 in November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$153Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$153.44
Will Solana dip to $120 in November?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$2,189Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+46.7%+$1,021.16
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$854Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$853.95
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in November?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$480Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+39.3%+$188.45
Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 in November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$19.5
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 November 24-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$12.44
Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 November 24-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$42
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$33.02
Will Ethereum dip to $2,800 in November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$295Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 20, 2025, EST+193.3%+$570.52
Showing 25 of 59 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved May 26, 2026, EDT1346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-21.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.91
Based FDV above $200M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$1,890Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$1,109.99
Based FDV above $100M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+126.9%+$100.59
Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.84
Hyperlend FDV above $20M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$235Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$235
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$2,158Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+56.3%+$1,213.92
Meteora FDV above $500M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$229Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT+63.9%+$146.25
Hyperliquid daily fees above $8M in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$194Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$194.33
Aleo airdrop in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$17.45
Jumper airdrop in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST+38.9%+$19.48
Pump.fun airdrop in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST+75.4%+$21.48
Linea airdrop in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$54.79
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2024, EDT-100%-$10.55
All 13 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick54cpaid+72.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Commodities — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 4, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick37cpaid+17.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Connecticut Huskies vs. Illinois Fighting Illinibacked Illinois Fighting Illini · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$10,310Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$10,310.44
Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-12.5)backed Arizona Wildcats · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$940Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$940
Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Alabama Crimson Tidebacked Texas Tech Red Raiders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$980Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$980
Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Florida Gatorsbacked Iowa Hawkeyes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$1,360Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT+488.2%+$6,640
Texas A&M Aggies vs. Houston Cougarsbacked Texas A&M Aggies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.21
All 5 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Nov 9, 2025, EST475%3 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.39per pick36cpaid+227.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Lol — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-64.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Stocks — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Nov 4, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+25%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-11-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST+150%+$150
Will Liverpool win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$1,485Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,485.44
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Nov 13, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-19.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$589Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+60.1%+$353.92
Will the government shutdown end November 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST-100%-$10
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Nov 5, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Barcelona win La Liga?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2025, EDT+100%+$500
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Oct 30, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump and Xi shake hands for between 2 and 6 seconds on October 30, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$112
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Mar 3, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$38
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 17, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Boston Celtics win the Eastern Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$503Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$502.92
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Nov 7, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$770Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2025, EST-100%-$770
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.