TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,752,277
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,877,644

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,752,277 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,300 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf705…3ca7backed Yes42c451,566$188,675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262,891.235123.9%84 W · 267 L+15.9wins+0.05per pick19cpaid-36.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7a1…9dcebacked Yes16c128,465$20,333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108,132.052321.7%5 W · 18 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef72…3c45backed Yes10c101,728$10,062 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91,665.864528.9%13 W · 32 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick25cpaid+18%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7fec…013abacked Yes4c88,132$3,636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84,496.32250%1 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick2cpaid+1,111.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa4f1…2417backed Yes9c62,844$5,565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57,279.321513.3%2 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick9cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa846…ad47backed Yes10c52,670$5,478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47,192.24475%3 W · 1 L+2.4wins+0.59per pick16cpaid+437.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Yes12c44,526$5,293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39,233.112025%30 W · 90 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes21c43,331$9,085 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,246.3864812%78 W · 570 L-61.6wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-53.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc1aa…b4d2backed No0c41,000$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fe8…975dbacked Yes12c39,763$4,665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,097.942100%2 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.87per pick13cpaid+685.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe89e…0600backed Yes9c39,658$3,504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,154.351241.7%5 W · 7 L+3.0wins+0.25per pick16cpaid+169.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed No67c34,449$23,114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,114.2958126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4da…f756backed Yes7c34,417$2,427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,989.963729.7%11 W · 26 L+6.7wins+0.18per pick12cpaid+349.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes4c32,600$1,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,140.531015.9%6 W · 95 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+121.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked No78c30,503$23,777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,777.387828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x707e…1960backed No77c29,627$22,756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,756.3622550.2%113 W · 112 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3b06…1ab7backed No0c27,950$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.9520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f55…e9a4backed Yes5c26,994$1,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,714.4214213.4%19 W · 123 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+58.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0154…15a8backed Yes36c25,496$9,122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,373.413953.8%21 W · 18 L+6.2wins+0.16per pick38cpaid-2.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x82b2…5ef7backed Yes10c25,374$2,419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,954.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.90per pick10cpaid+948.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0513…6ee8backed Yes14c25,042$3,431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,611.411338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick26cpaid+47%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x768b…9c01backed Yes7c23,914$1,674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,240.29837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.18per pick19cpaid+159.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa39…977fbacked Yes4c23,400$1,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,369.541488.8%13 W · 135 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick4cpaid-49.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes18c22,854$4,074 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,780.235034%17 W · 33 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid+35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50a5…bafebacked Yes14c22,076$3,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,068.5323411.1%26 W · 208 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbca1…7181backed Yes12c21,632$2,627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,004.782100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+406%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7d84…511abacked Yes21c20,696$4,408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,287.872100%2 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+254%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc1fb…100cbacked No0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0e5…6208backed No77c19,573$15,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes5c18,797$1,031 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,766.236785.9%40 W · 638 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5841…cd1dbacked No0c18,000$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1840%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe78d…f19dbacked No0c17,000$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1be9…47e1backed Yes13c16,730$2,167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,562.79650%3 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+144.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3d6d…0a6cbacked Yes10c16,696$1,684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,012.43318.2%6 W · 27 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-31.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f7f…2352backed Yes12c16,508$1,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,558.575726.3%15 W · 42 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick20cpaid-4.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2899…3f61backed Yes16c15,663$2,516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,146.92100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+276.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x208a…31c3backed No1c15,566$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa06c…9d93backed Yes3c15,393$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,892.82633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.29per pick5cpaid+541.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa9cf…c8b9backed Yes4c15,126$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,525.63450%2 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.43per pick7cpaid+639.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7e50…2a28backed Yes24c15,000$3,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,399.97742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick30cpaid+74.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0540…98ebbacked Yes18c14,724$2,634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,090.792138.1%8 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4586…c4bebacked Yes25c14,722$3,752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,969.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.75per pick25cpaid+292.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b2f…d043backed Yes10c14,551$1,508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,042.441827.8%5 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8298…b978backed Yes13c14,510$1,837 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,672.9718315.3%28 W · 155 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick9cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1272…5b3cbacked No0c13,581$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5830%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25d8…a71fbacked Yes2c12,611$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,324.35185.6%1 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+144.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x602c…0c62backed No79c12,514$9,946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,945.79250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick75cpaid-28.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0ec…fb2ebacked No0c12,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick25cpaid-54.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeaf0…17c7backed No0c12,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2da4…bb27backed No0c11,804$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.2350%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97bc…30cdbacked Yes17c11,765$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,764.716723.9%16 W · 51 L+4.1wins+0.06per pick18cpaid+111.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd15…5ea7backed Yes5c11,512$585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,927.36175.9%1 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick10cpaid+15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x25af…bcafbacked Yes8c11,400$890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,509.453998.5%34 W · 365 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfea2…581ebacked Yes9c11,313$1,031 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,282.056813.2%9 W · 59 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick14cpaid+46.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5cf…9fc6backed Yes13c11,069$1,430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,639.711533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0a5…2ef6backed Yes18c11,016$1,934 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,082.37949.4%39 W · 40 L+10.2wins+0.13per pick36cpaid+35.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x60f8…32f2backed No24c10,287$2,497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,497.271283.3%10 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.14per pick69cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0baf…390abacked Yes12c10,240$1,190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,049.59837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick23cpaid+157.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1615…8f2bbacked No1c10,200$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.21010%1 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick30cpaid-87.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1714…1cdebacked Yes10c10,002$964 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,038.34728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+76.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x538c…d669backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe53a…d012backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x357e…e727backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f62…2ce6backed Yes30c10,000$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,999.9910313.6%14 W · 89 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x95d4…c38cbacked No7c9,992$699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.442540%10 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-28.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0fe4…01b7backed No54c9,383$5,062 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,061.926835.3%24 W · 44 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-39.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a3f…7112backed Yes3c9,189$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,888.992512%3 W · 22 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick8cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd82f…75ffbacked Yes11c9,122$977 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,145.281241.7%5 W · 7 L+2.6wins+0.22per pick20cpaid+158.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc92c…7750backed Yes17c9,072$1,502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,570.46520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick16cpaid+20.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28ad…b2d3backed No44c8,955$3,971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,970.65639.3%22 W · 34 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick34cpaid-23.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1af5…b4bbbacked No78c8,754$6,834 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,833.66250%1 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick78cpaid-35.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes6c8,395$498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,897.41,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d35…23c1backed Yes13c8,187$1,097 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,090.82040%8 W · 12 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+46%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0361…c736backed Yes14c7,940$1,109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,831.03333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid+138.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xfd64…f9dabacked Yes10c7,743$804 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,938.97450%2 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.45per pick5cpaid+883.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x47e0…281ebacked Yes20c7,576$1,548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,028.05333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick15cpaid+63.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes10c7,475$722 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,753.258920.2%18 W · 71 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick15cpaid-23.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6810…38a3backed Yes6c7,100$411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,688.641631.3%5 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick22cpaid+58.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x35fa…2bd4backed Yes19c7,000$1,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,649.92347.8%11 W · 12 L+5.1wins+0.22per pick26cpaid+84.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xcf24…7d4abacked No71c6,956$4,949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,94910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd669…f5e7backed Yes6c6,939$431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,508.46221%13 W · 49 L+10.4wins+0.17per pick4cpaid+300.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x0cc3…edf0backed Yes12c6,867$828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,039.455425.9%14 W · 40 L+5.8wins+0.11per pick15cpaid+37.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf7c6…1c37backed Yes11c6,525$744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,780.81977.8%7 W · 2 L+4.7wins+0.52per pick25cpaid+743.8%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xdb8e…ef1abacked No40c6,502$2,614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,613.710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x027d…6a30backed Yes7c6,126$441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,685.19333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick16cpaid+362.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70a4…eff2backed Yes15c6,094$884 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,209.638713.8%12 W · 75 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-29.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4257…038cbacked Yes28c6,061$1,715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,345.541216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-50.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe58f…75a4backed No78c6,000$4,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,679.66333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick76cpaid-58.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xca40…8c85backed Yes17c5,963$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,963.091100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.83per pick17cpaid+496.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7de1…e0debacked Yes17c5,912$1,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,908.242055%11 W · 9 L+3.4wins+0.17per pick38cpaid+29.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x239d…f8a5backed Yes13c5,910$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,159.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.87per pick13cpaid+687.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb9c…a907backed Yes41c5,874$2,385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,489.15250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+23.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1de8…b7e7backed Yes12c5,828$680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,147.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.88per pick12cpaid+757%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x24eb…499bbacked Yes10c5,803$592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,210.612100%2 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.90per pick10cpaid+882.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xbcee…0f35backed No68c5,716$3,862 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,861.66450%2 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick76cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0185…79c7backed Yes3c5,600$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,409.11333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick4cpaid+877.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc504…7a4cbacked Yes16c5,560$874 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,685.362737%10 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf31a…bfbabacked Yes6c5,428$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,129.322626.9%7 W · 19 L+4.3wins+0.17per pick10cpaid+100.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe0b6…2505backed Yes8c5,427$436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,991.011136.4%4 W · 7 L+2.8wins+0.26per pick11cpaid+202.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes7c5,372$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,995.922125.7%12 W · 200 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.