Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45f5b74ab9b74fd8a385dd7eba75a2fc7fb449a477d494adaadecdc54a3d7ec1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,173,873
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,583,361
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,173,873 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x115d…f608backed Yes | 0c | 415,614$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.61 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce90…d285backed Yes | 0c | 332,753$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.7 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 3cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b0b…5e43backed Yes | 0c | 199,968$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.97 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…c19dbacked Yes | 0c | 185,695$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.69 | 79 | 2.5%2 W · 77 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -96%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d6d…0a6cbacked Yes | 0c | 148,810$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.62 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe3…eb49backed Yes | 0c | 146,535$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c66…6b66backed Yes | 0c | 90,902$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.8 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda17…d901backed Yes | 0c | 66,413$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.3 | 107 | 0%0 W · 107 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes | 0c | 25,875$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.87 | 80 | 0%0 W · 80 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd29…fd24backed Yes | 0c | 25,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3df9…71d8backed Yes | 0c | 21,997$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x962f…a5bfbacked Yes | 1c | 21,730$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90bb…531fbacked Yes | 0c | 21,278$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 71 | 0%0 W · 71 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ebc…1700backed Yes | 0c | 20,411$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06dd…850dbacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2987…70acbacked Yes | 0c | 17,424$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x235a…b3b8backed Yes | 0c | 16,557$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0873…09e8backed Yes | 0c | 16,552$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75ea…a356backed Yes | 0c | 15,222$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0031…29f0backed Yes | 0c | 15,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…35ffbacked Yes | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 136 | 0%0 W · 136 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 0c | 12,699$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 149 | 0.7%1 W · 148 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ff…96babacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4097…3bcbbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 148 | 8.8%13 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x542c…bdffbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…0b3fbacked Yes | 0c | 8,800$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ce…7438backed Yes | 0c | 8,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf437…b73abacked Yes | 0c | 7,870$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf3…82c7backed Yes | 0c | 6,667$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e9…d52dbacked Yes | 0c | 6,667$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 5cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc632…55bebacked Yes | 0c | 6,416$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x974b…eb79backed Yes | 0c | 6,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 0c | 5,120$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1254…641dbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7580…853dbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 4cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71a6…6fa0backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 24cpaid | +90.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in January?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in January?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in January?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in January?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in January?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in January?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in January?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in January?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in January?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in January?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in January?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in January?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in January?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in January?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.