TailMyPicks
Market

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$26,660,909
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$20,033,483

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,660,909 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 223 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa61e…0abdbacked Yes0c3,141,098$8,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,479.54140%0 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x115d…f608backed Yes0c2,957,745$2,958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,957.74250%0 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd57…694dbacked Yes0c2,704,162$3,971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,971.1130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0ec…6064backed Yes0c955,722$3,923 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,922.8890%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6480…8dc5backed Yes0c800,812$3,574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,573.81234.3%1 W · 22 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick2cpaid-87.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b0b…5e43backed Yes0c499,997$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900130%0 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce5b…047abacked Yes0c468,973$938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$937.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4f2…7862backed Yes0c452,317$1,317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,316.9550%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cbc…9934backed Yes0c344,309$689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$688.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26fb…e5a4backed Yes0c300,000$1,448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,448.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6786…0d36backed Yes0c194,085$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.0840%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a94…8a1dbacked Yes0c166,644$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.93175.9%1 W · 16 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-90.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc565…0779backed Yes0c150,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9649…7368backed Yes1c149,077$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd69…cbf9backed Yes0c109,800$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5a0…60c3backed Yes0c101,557$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.36430%0 W · 43 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f9d…015ebacked Yes1c100,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedd0…5bcbbacked Yes0c100,000$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3285…05aebacked Yes0c92,093$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.09450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4cf1…6988backed Yes0c75,299$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf623…d154backed Yes0c75,250$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda17…d901backed Yes0c72,206$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.851070%0 W · 107 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeba4…db40backed Yes0c65,791$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f3c…e85abacked Yes0c65,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x061e…5ab8backed Yes0c62,500$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-80.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb41a…3a25backed Yes0c60,000$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18090%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5ce…7438backed Yes0c59,000$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-74.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes0c57,774$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.77792.5%2 W · 77 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick2cpaid-96%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fe44backed Yes0c54,455$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.82520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-35.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc30f…6e13backed Yes0c52,381$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24090%0 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8298…b978backed Yes1c50,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25018315.3%28 W · 155 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick9cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1479…054dbacked Yes0c50,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200100%0 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdbc…f38bbacked Yes0c50,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b05…e6c2backed Yes1c50,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfaf5…75e5backed Yes0c49,586$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.5930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbee2…8db2backed Yes0c43,218$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.8730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a6f…2444backed Yes0c41,152$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ea7…68f8backed Yes0c39,989$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa66…ce5fbacked Yes0c38,981$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45df…5b27backed Yes0c35,284$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.57320%0 W · 32 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05d6…29f7backed Yes0c33,060$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.24714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick33cpaid-81.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2915…8fb1backed Yes0c30,965$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2095…1800backed Yes0c30,876$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7695…ad64backed Yes0c30,860$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0608…7cc2backed Yes1c30,500$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc85…2ee1backed Yes0c30,449$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe46c…f91fbacked Yes0c30,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2133…3c3ebacked Yes1c30,000$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef58…b722backed Yes0c29,990$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c32…b464backed Yes0c28,250$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113150%0 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbf4…6aafbacked Yes0c26,514$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddd4…cda9backed Yes0c26,298$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.3333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-57.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2a0…7301backed Yes0c25,200$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce9d…80bebacked Yes0c25,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick8cpaid+79.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa40e…ba87backed Yes0c25,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick7cpaid-5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce81…f51abacked Yes0c25,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9350…df1abacked Yes0c25,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d4c…3d2abacked Yes0c24,750$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-33%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61e2…4958backed Yes0c24,000$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96200%0 W · 20 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0197…5eb8backed Yes1c24,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa39…977fbacked Yes0c24,000$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341488.8%13 W · 135 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick4cpaid-49.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x263b…0200backed Yes0c23,603$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x793c…6c5dbacked Yes0c23,105$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9550%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa694…3f17backed Yes1c22,000$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11060%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed48…d350backed Yes0c22,000$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2938…f251backed Yes1c20,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10070%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf3f…16a6backed Yes0c20,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$807810.3%8 W · 70 L-0.3wins0.00per pick11cpaid-33.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf53…917fbacked Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick10cpaid+69.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f04…1a93backed Yes0c19,999$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd44b…f081backed Yes0c19,998$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a8e…68ecbacked Yes0c19,906$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a53…2e83backed Yes0c19,867$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.7310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0527…f6d1backed Yes0c19,862$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7266…116abacked Yes0c19,553$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5540%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes0c19,500$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5800%0 W · 80 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e53…5a39backed Yes0c19,232$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.7110%0 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90bb…531fbacked Yes0c18,000$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18710%0 W · 71 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf181…835dbacked Yes1c18,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d73…7898backed Yes0c17,859$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0171…7f5ebacked Yes0c17,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8080%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1e3…0ceabacked Yes0c16,687$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a08…c095backed Yes0c16,667$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8db6…928cbacked Yes1c16,638$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd372…5400backed Yes0c16,376$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e8d…1b71backed Yes1c16,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3df9…71d8backed Yes0c16,000$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16250%0 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb205…60e0backed Yes0c15,606$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8adc…5803backed Yes0c15,020$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc9c…8b14backed Yes1c14,560$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5b8…454dbacked Yes1c14,286$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf35…9598backed Yes0c12,540$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8e9…d52dbacked Yes0c12,500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick5cpaid+39.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa4dc…0da7backed Yes0c12,500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50267.7%2 W · 24 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-56.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8cf3…b118backed Yes0c12,438$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8487…5737backed Yes0c12,200$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3331…8587backed Yes1c12,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Yes0c11,250$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.51360%0 W · 136 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52ca…2453backed Yes0c11,245$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…e6febacked Yes1c11,000$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf0c…afe6backed Yes0c11,000$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.