Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf1baaf229312ef8b9d910151a75ad4d6fcb28a6892555cabc925e89106fc40ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,310,835
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,058,972
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,310,835 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x191c…ad6ebacked Yes | 1c | 70,581$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ff…96babacked Yes | 1c | 53,349$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.35 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…c19dbacked Yes | 0c | 51,400$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.4 | 79 | 2.5%2 W · 77 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -96%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 0c | 40,678$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.68 | 229 | 0%0 W · 229 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8298…b978backed Yes | 0c | 38,454$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.82 | 183 | 15.3%28 W · 155 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90bb…531fbacked Yes | 0c | 32,599$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 71 | 0%0 W · 71 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3df9…71d8backed Yes | 0c | 31,249$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes | 0c | 30,166$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.17 | 80 | 0%0 W · 80 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc747…324bbacked Yes | 1c | 25,541$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.26 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | +12.3wins | +0.19per pick | 4cpaid | +272.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xda17…d901backed Yes | 0c | 25,144$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.76 | 107 | 0%0 W · 107 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9151…01ebbacked Yes | 1c | 22,944$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b86…0669backed Yes | 1c | 21,958$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.45 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8541…895bbacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 3cpaid | +365.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…35ffbacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 136 | 0%0 W · 136 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d6d…0a6cbacked Yes | 0c | 15,162$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.32 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 0c | 14,310$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.24 | 48 | 2.1%1 W · 47 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -93.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…a979backed Yes | 1c | 14,093$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.35 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc632…55bebacked Yes | 0c | 13,718$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.46 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a84…7101backed Yes | 0c | 13,384$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.75 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +5.7wins | +0.16per pick | 12cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4343…3be2backed Yes | 1c | 12,930$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.58 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa92d…4e71backed Yes | 0c | 12,368$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 50 | 6%3 W · 47 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -90.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c63…b28bbacked Yes | 0c | 12,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 0c | 11,411$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 149 | 0.7%1 W · 148 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb4…b099backed Yes | 1c | 11,119$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 10,302$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.11 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x225a…0306backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked Yes | 0c | 9,868$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 148 | 8.8%13 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dc…0da7backed Yes | 1c | 8,889$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x850a…7f7ebacked Yes | 0c | 8,349$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b52…4db0backed Yes | 1c | 6,673$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.76 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +7.7wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 6,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba88…7f3abacked Yes | 1c | 5,610$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc70f…5de7backed Yes | 1c | 5,509$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.04 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbe9…dbd0backed Yes | 0c | 5,500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2035…d9b0backed Yes | 0c | 5,089$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb2…b92abacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcb…bf17backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b51…939ebacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74c9…d064backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 34 | 2.9%1 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 151 | 9.9%15 W · 136 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09d7…2dbfbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 31 | 0%0 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddfa…7c5ebacked Yes | 0c | 4,819$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc31a…94f7backed Yes | 1c | 4,664$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…3d4dbacked Yes | 0c | 3,945$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa690…1e42backed Yes | 0c | 3,945$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9851…5d44backed Yes | 1c | 3,832$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13e9…6526backed Yes | 1c | 3,829$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…7062backed Yes | 1c | 3,800$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d7…9b6ebacked Yes | 1c | 3,680$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 1cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 0c | 3,584$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 416 | 3.1%13 W · 403 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes | 1c | 3,499$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | +8.5wins | +0.15per pick | 3cpaid | +321.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,859$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 85 | 5.9%5 W · 80 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3f…9b74backed Yes | 1c | 2,299$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 1c | 2,112$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 212 | 5.7%12 W · 200 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,524$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 120 | 3.3%4 W · 116 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 1c | 1,253$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 146 | 3.4%5 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d0…af50backed Yes | 1c | 1,200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in January?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in January?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in January?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in January?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in January?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in January?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in January?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in January?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in January?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in January?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in January?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in January?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in January?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in January?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.