TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xc70f…5de7

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
47
Categories scored
7
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Crypto Milestones, grading 51 out of 100 (+0.01 per pick).

Best Category Crypto Milestones at 51 out of 100; worst Lol at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick14cpaid-85%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$24
US forces enter Iran by March 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$17
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.88
Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.65
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$125.32
Will Ali Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.32
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$201Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+109.6%+$220.71
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$59.48
US forces enter Iran by March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.5
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$302Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$302
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$132Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$132
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$219Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$218.96
US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$46
All 14 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1010%1 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-38.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$249Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$249.22
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$116Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$115.86
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.7
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$133Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$133.27
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$202Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$202.36
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$26.22
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$157Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$156.71
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$36.24
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$28.04
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+513.1%+$325.54
All 10 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Mar 8, 2026, EDT80%0 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
CS2 — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs B8 - Map 2 Winnerbacked B8 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$55.28
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs B8 (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2backed B8 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.54
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs B8 - Map 1 Winnerbacked B8 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$66.56
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Heroic (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2backed Heroic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$36.1
Counter-Strike: Oxuji Esports vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series #18 Play-Inbacked Oxuji Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$11.25
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2backed Monte · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2backed Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$25.05
Counter-Strike: paiN vs FaZe (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2backed FaZe · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$14.73
All 8 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Apr 3, 2026, EDT80%0 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Lol — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: BNK FEARX vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winnerbacked BNK FEARX · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.67
LoL: 7REX vs Estral Esports (BO1) - Circuito Desafiante Regular Seasonbacked 7REX · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.73
LoL: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Group Stagebacked Team Heretics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$77.28
LoL: Natus Vincere vs SK Gaming (BO3) - LEC Group Stagebacked SK Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$91.62
LoL: Natus Vincere vs SK Gaming - Game 2 Winnerbacked SK Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.4
LoL: Sentinels vs Cloud9 - Game 4 Winnerbacked Sentinels · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$38.72
LoL: Sentinels vs Cloud9 (BO5) - Americas Cup Playoffsbacked Sentinels · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$23.79
LoL: BOMBA Team vs Orzeł Barcząca Esports (BO5) - Rift Legends Playoffsbacked Orzeł Barcząca Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$22.69
All 8 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 2, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Mar 7, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.