Middle East · resolved market
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95f1451bed5af0b7063c7c4c827619438f45099ea418c8cc15ad58d4f12410f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $999,331
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $999,331 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 577 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8e6f…522bbacked Yes | 0c | 200,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed9…2be0backed Yes | 0c | 48,280$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9648…6825backed Yes | 9c | 47,822$4,281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,281.11 | 148 | 21.6%32 W · 116 L | -24.5wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 21c | 23,175$4,845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,844.65 | 170 | 18.2%31 W · 139 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked Yes | 4c | 18,740$815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$815 | 166 | 38.6%64 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed No | 78c | 10,874$8,513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,360.89 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -10.5wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 2c | 8,385$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.08 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked No | 44c | 7,698$3,399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,299.67 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 28c | 7,054$1,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,999.08 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x071c…9b75backed Yes | 14c | 6,935$952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$951.62 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 29c | 6,841$2,016 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,015.86 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fdd…0a35backed No | 80c | 6,568$5,229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,339.39 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90da…4042backed Yes | 24c | 6,144$1,502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,501.85 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +71.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff91…a1edbacked Yes | 8c | 6,061$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +51%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…932cbacked Yes | 17c | 5,555$944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$944.34 | 112 | 8.9%10 W · 102 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +149.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 9c | 5,344$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.38 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 20c | 5,102$1,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,012.34 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57d3…746cbacked Yes | 57c | 5,000$2,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,850 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.44per pick | 64cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…bfa2backed Yes | 12c | 4,515$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.79 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 71c | 4,451$3,165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,285.79 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed No | 48c | 4,264$2,057 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,207.11 | 134 | 41.8%56 W · 78 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4492…0f14backed Yes | 15c | 4,079$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd8…428fbacked Yes | 15c | 4,041$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.65 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda9e…ac09backed Yes | 21c | 4,020$848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$848.02 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 52c | 4,000$2,067 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,932.63 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 3,914$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.89 | 72 | 1.4%1 W · 71 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…1086backed Yes | 4c | 3,665$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.46 | 148 | 8.1%12 W · 136 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +238.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked No | 71c | 3,590$2,549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040.98 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3959…c73dbacked Yes | 28c | 3,529$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6996…cf9abacked Yes | 2c | 3,500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0033…5fa4backed Yes | 58c | 3,418$1,980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,980 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked Yes | 48c | 3,412$1,652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,652.31 | 173 | 59.5%103 W · 70 L | +12.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b44…264ebacked Yes | 17c | 3,196$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.16 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +9.7wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +156.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked No | 70c | 3,095$2,164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$930.43 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c13…ce0ebacked Yes | 3c | 3,083$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.19 | 63 | 9.5%6 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf900…cd0cbacked Yes | 33c | 3,032$995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$995.32 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | -14.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -46%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5922…3388backed Yes | 52c | 3,000$1,545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,545 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 11c | 2,907$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.35 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…876fbacked Yes | 3c | 2,766$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.88 | 96 | 13.5%13 W · 83 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe5…a718backed Yes | 19c | 2,637$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a5b…1439backed Yes | 14c | 2,557$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.98 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0c60backed No | 71c | 2,310$1,632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$678.03 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43ce…22e5backed Yes | 25c | 2,211$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.99 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x020f…de5ebacked Yes | 63c | 2,204$1,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,380.39 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +3.7wins | +0.34per pick | 39cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0e45…5b3fbacked Yes | 28c | 2,202$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625.49 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 23cpaid | +85.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 2,100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x934c…cd38backed Yes | 34c | 2,088$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717.68 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +11.0wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed Yes | 2c | 2,074$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 132 | 28%37 W · 95 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 15c | 2,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…5d99backed Yes | 9c | 2,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 2,000$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.05 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 19c | 1,988$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.61 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa791…269dbacked Yes | 25c | 1,982$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49f8…8c04backed No | 68c | 1,930$1,316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.53 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3044…9ff8backed No | 77c | 1,889$1,446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 9c | 1,763$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.4 | 77 | 9.1%7 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 1,740$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.53 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 54c | 1,726$925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$801.54 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8561…337bbacked Yes | 23c | 1,712$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.32 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x508f…502dbacked Yes | 26c | 1,566$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9099backed Yes | 11c | 1,501$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.59 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc70f…5de7backed Yes | 9c | 1,500$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -85%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 38c | 1,500$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$930 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0e…9b3bbacked Yes | 12c | 1,500$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.99 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…ff14backed No | 57c | 1,500$848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$651.74 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8933…a8e1backed No | 71c | 1,481$1,051 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.47 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Yes | 39c | 1,480$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.6 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d76…d7a0backed Yes | 76c | 1,476$1,115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,115.43 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.3wins | -0.46per pick | 66cpaid | -75%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x952b…edfabacked Yes | 55c | 1,476$812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$812.45 | 64 | 75%48 W · 16 L | +12.3wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +50%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 47c | 1,404$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660.23 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 4c | 1,403$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.63 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x342e…22f8backed Yes | 12c | 1,402$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…4fd2backed No | 72c | 1,393$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.59 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4738…7d2ebacked Yes | 35c | 1,355$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.53 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdaca…6c92backed Yes | 48c | 1,342$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfadf…dda0backed Yes | 31c | 1,306$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.11 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 36cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 5c | 1,304$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.05 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes | 14c | 1,300$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 281 | 26.3%74 W · 207 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e24…8266backed Yes | 48c | 1,260$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.69 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -5.2wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -53%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4948…08bdbacked No | 80c | 1,252$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.35 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +3.4wins | +0.21per pick | 66cpaid | +37%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x531e…a7b3backed No | 71c | 1,217$868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 10c | 1,213$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.36 | 215 | 31.2%67 W · 148 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 77c | 1,213$933 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.04 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -23.0wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x75be…9a9ebacked No | 79c | 1,203$948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.56 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 55c | 1,161$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.38 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb36f…03a7backed Yes | 2c | 1,155$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 29cpaid | +61.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9e…6838backed No | 49c | 1,154$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591.82 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +4.7wins | +0.28per pick | 31cpaid | +136.5%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 25c | 1,143$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.67 | 115 | 37.4%43 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbebe…72e1backed No | 49c | 1,121$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.87 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9963…32e4backed Yes | 68c | 1,100$744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$743.77 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5973…5e13backed Yes | 24c | 1,070$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.86 | 91 | 16.5%15 W · 76 L | -6.9wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb630…f3e6backed Yes | 34c | 1,067$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.29 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde87…11a2backed Yes | 19c | 1,060$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.66 | 118 | 33.9%40 W · 78 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d4…ebd7backed Yes | 21c | 1,038$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.12 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…0958backed No | 50c | 1,035$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.99 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 14c | 1,027$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.93 | 123 | 25.2%31 W · 92 L | +15.2wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdde3…e797backed Yes | 33c | 1,021$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.26 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed No | 75c | 1,020$761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.6 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf60…a6f5backed No | 49c | 1,017$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.33 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9f…e03bbacked Yes | 17c | 1,016$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.33 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 5?this page
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 10?Yes won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 11?Yes won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 12?Yes won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 13?Yes won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 15?Yes won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 1?No won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 2?No won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31?Yes won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 3?No won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4?No won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?No won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 7?No won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8?Yes won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 9?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.