Middle East · resolved market
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2483f4255dd3e56f62bcd460ae8f79f423c366dda10683e23c7c8ef33c6e0051
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $81,060
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,271
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $81,060 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 183 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf900…cd0cbacked No | 28c | 5,530$1,566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,566.05 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | -14.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -46%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb78e…30e3backed No | 39c | 3,347$1,303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,302.78 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +106%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7583…6d97backed Yes | 79c | 3,015$2,390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.86 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…a156backed Yes | 62c | 2,924$1,815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,109.22 | 155 | 41.9%65 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked Yes | 61c | 2,675$1,633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,042.2 | 54 | 66.7%36 W · 18 L | +6.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x49ee…9872backed No | 41c | 2,441$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae0f…f647backed Yes | 62c | 2,200$1,364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$836 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9690…f2d5backed Yes | 47c | 2,002$938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,063.91 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ab…9504backed No | 1c | 1,826$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed No | 32c | 1,748$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.51 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 19c | 1,683$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.99 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55db…2031backed Yes | 60c | 1,658$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$658.38 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +7.3wins | +0.27per pick | 32cpaid | +87.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked Yes | 65c | 1,551$1,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.15 | 173 | 59.5%103 W · 70 L | +12.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5c…0c2abacked No | 27c | 1,500$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 55c | 1,440$785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655.16 | 292 | 54.8%160 W · 132 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x641b…5433backed Yes | 76c | 1,342$1,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.8 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | +7.9wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +125.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc438…3ae6backed Yes | 66c | 1,190$785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa6…4465backed Yes | 73c | 1,123$824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.31 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 30cpaid | +126%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked No | 29c | 1,100$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314 | 175 | 30.9%54 W · 121 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeafc…0d5cbacked Yes | 76c | 1,016$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.33 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 11c | 1,000$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36fe…3ab1backed Yes | 67c | 999.99$674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +4.4wins | +0.26per pick | 45cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xba43…afa3backed Yes | 68c | 865.54$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.85 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 14c | 857.14$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 23c | 855.02$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.68 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4714…c177backed Yes | 55c | 837.59$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.73 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9f…2a2fbacked No | 42c | 817.04$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.13 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 27c | 814.2$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.26 | 194 | 28.9%56 W · 138 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdf…3b6cbacked Yes | 52c | 766.04$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.04 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36ae…3567backed No | 68c | 700$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -5.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 30c | 674.49$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.53 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2dc…3f6abacked Yes | 53c | 652.42$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.64 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 10c | 630$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.08 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x489b…7433backed No | 55c | 624.06$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.25 | 31 | 6.5%2 W · 29 L | -6.1wins | -0.20per pick | 26cpaid | -91%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…876fbacked No | 42c | 616.6$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.97 | 96 | 13.5%13 W · 83 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84dd…8701backed Yes | 68c | 600$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.27 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf93…6e4fbacked Yes | 74c | 539.99$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 77cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cee…1832backed No | 25c | 500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 35cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8f…b920backed Yes | 67c | 491.37$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.37 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2d…ff9bbacked No | 31c | 489.75$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf5…b17fbacked No | 54c | 450.57$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.86 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 55c | 411.75$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.87 | 77 | 9.1%7 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb143…e991backed Yes | 64c | 410$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf40…e942backed No | 47c | 409.98$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.89 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 65c | 409.89$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.75 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 36c | 400.2$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.07 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 39c | 400$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -6.6wins | -0.12per pick | 61cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…59b4backed No | 37c | 400$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 200 | 35.5%71 W · 129 L | -11.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x893d…da13backed Yes | 31c | 400$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5726…10f5backed No | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d0…eaabbacked No | 26c | 389.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -63%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…f395backed No | 9c | 350$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 146 | 9.6%14 W · 132 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes | 58c | 345.23$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.23 | 241 | 49.4%119 W · 122 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde83…8b00backed No | 41c | 345.07$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.68 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x071c…9b75backed Yes | 37c | 340$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.7 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 80c | 336.42$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.47 | 93 | 53.8%50 W · 43 L | +12.3wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 79c | 324.01$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.54 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9155…de7cbacked No | 37c | 317.77$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.13 | 70 | 24.3%17 W · 53 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2be8…573dbacked No | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb9…3870backed Yes | 66c | 300$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ebb…7b26backed No | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 65c | 292.51$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.38 | 170 | 18.2%31 W · 139 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 61c | 276.57$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.84 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x266c…60f0backed No | 46c | 266.31$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.2 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac8f…feddbacked Yes | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.41 | 210 | 34.3%72 W · 138 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 55c | 252.32$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.32 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe593…8692backed Yes | 76c | 250$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 70c | 245.19$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.88 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…6415backed No | 29c | 244.53$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.92 | 258 | 43.4%112 W · 146 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe900…bb13backed No | 27c | 226.14$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 52c | 217.43$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.37 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed No | 17c | 211.76$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | -11.5wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e6…9767backed No | 30c | 210$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 71 | 42.3%30 W · 41 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8706…0587backed No | 25c | 202.42$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.58 | 105 | 55.2%58 W · 47 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…6320backed No | 63c | 200.87$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.6 | 104 | 17.3%18 W · 86 L | -13.7wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…84febacked No | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e67…44bcbacked No | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4afd…1241backed No | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa574…efe0backed Yes | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…4bdebacked No | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92e5…efeebacked Yes | 68c | 200$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 118 | 43.2%51 W · 67 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ed…25a4backed No | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 56c | 199.99$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.33 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -23.0wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd8…0d38backed No | 68c | 199.99$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.99 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e31…454dbacked Yes | 64c | 189.51$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.66 | 60 | 66.7%40 W · 20 L | +7.3wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0b…b5febacked Yes | 65c | 182.58$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.9 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f59…d19abacked Yes | 55c | 182.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.25 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7c…23c8backed Yes | 60c | 180$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -5.0wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5b…a790backed Yes | 33c | 157.93$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.81 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2772…5c9cbacked Yes | 65c | 154.26$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.98 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…adf8backed No | 17c | 154$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01f0…f684backed Yes | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 12 | 100%12 W · 0 L | +3.8wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed No | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa901…d418backed No | 21c | 150$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda4a…2184backed Yes | 65c | 150$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5b…efbebacked Yes | 67c | 149.48$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.48 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe55e…e3c7backed Yes | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…e47fbacked Yes | 68c | 146.8$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…d2acbacked Yes | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +84.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 11?this page
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 10?Yes won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 12?Yes won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 13?Yes won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 15?Yes won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 1?No won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 2?No won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31?Yes won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 3?No won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4?No won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 5?No won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?No won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 7?No won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8?Yes won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 9?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.