Middle East · resolved market
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4d9075a14094db9b40fe56854550374f2875cb54cb93973eef773bbeac147b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $904,055
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $904,055 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 914 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 27c | 35,760$9,832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,832.37 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9648…6825backed Yes | 65c | 32,819$21,183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,635.09 | 148 | 21.6%32 W · 116 L | -24.5wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf900…cd0cbacked No | 17c | 30,190$5,055 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,054.75 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | -14.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -46%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 13c | 26,922$3,626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,625.57 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 20c | 22,027$4,304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,304.17 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 66c | 19,105$12,603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,502.12 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked Yes | 65c | 16,726$10,949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,777.78 | 166 | 38.6%64 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 24c | 15,493$3,646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,645.63 | 205 | 49.8%102 W · 103 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 22c | 14,641$3,273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,272.66 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…321ebacked No | 29c | 14,312$4,203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,203.16 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc902…cd14backed Yes | 73c | 13,380$9,748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,632.29 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked Yes | 80c | 12,665$10,124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,540.98 | 54 | 66.7%36 W · 18 L | +6.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda9e…ac09backed Yes | 62c | 11,463$7,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,382.59 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cda…2de5backed No | 46c | 10,934$4,998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,998.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24de…83cbbacked No | 27c | 10,790$2,913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,913.3 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf19…6402backed No | 38c | 10,461$3,968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,968.47 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked No | 24c | 10,209$2,403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,402.78 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…0958backed No | 37c | 10,000$3,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,699.99 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked Yes | 75c | 9,677$7,275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,401.5 | 173 | 59.5%103 W · 70 L | +12.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x449c…879ebacked Yes | 72c | 9,447$6,824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,622.55 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | +9.2wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x55db…2031backed Yes | 74c | 9,437$7,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,437.08 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +7.3wins | +0.27per pick | 32cpaid | +87.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6a23…fd22backed Yes | 75c | 9,407$7,069 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,337.36 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56c9…afe7backed Yes | 54c | 9,217$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,216.7 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.33per pick | 30cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b94…1c4bbacked No | 11c | 8,359$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52f5…19dabacked Yes | 73c | 8,295$6,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,240.34 | 122 | 45.9%56 W · 66 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 70c | 8,243$5,785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,458 | 196 | 39.8%78 W · 118 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a3…1807backed Yes | 72c | 8,000$5,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,199.99 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x96ef…5523backed Yes | 68c | 7,613$5,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,428.73 | 118 | 42.4%50 W · 68 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed No | 10c | 7,029$723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$722.88 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…6320backed No | 34c | 6,768$2,329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,329.22 | 104 | 17.3%18 W · 86 L | -13.7wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe472…e7ebbacked Yes | 76c | 6,038$4,559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,478.68 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b71…8044backed No | 50c | 6,000$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -5.0wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf29f…5ccabacked Yes | 75c | 6,000$4,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,499.99 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +84.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x934c…cd38backed Yes | 66c | 5,998$3,943 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,055.03 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +11.0wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…3ee3backed No | 41c | 5,866$2,398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,398.48 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked No | 38c | 5,780$2,219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,219.07 | 161 | 25.5%41 W · 120 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes | 68c | 5,414$3,689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,725.43 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -6.7wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 26c | 5,360$1,402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,402.01 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb911…8bb6backed Yes | 56c | 5,295$2,959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,335.86 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +116.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 27c | 5,282$1,407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,406.88 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6062…4084backed Yes | 70c | 5,236$3,688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,547.57 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2428…1e86backed No | 44c | 4,989$2,202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,201.68 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7187…f08bbacked Yes | 64c | 4,953$3,161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,792.21 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -29%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07a9…32c8backed No | 41c | 4,834$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa79e…4229backed No | 21c | 4,786$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -4.4wins | -0.21per pick | 40cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x25db…28debacked Yes | 51c | 4,767$2,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,327.14 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | +11.7wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 79c | 4,700$3,718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$981.78 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc3db…0f98backed No | 17c | 4,444$755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$755.48 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +11.2wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xedc2…ad9fbacked No | 38c | 4,290$1,615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,615.42 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +10.2wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 72c | 4,241$3,072 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,169 | 215 | 31.2%67 W · 148 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 0c | 4,200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x489b…7433backed No | 30c | 4,116$1,251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250.66 | 31 | 6.5%2 W · 29 L | -6.1wins | -0.20per pick | 26cpaid | -91%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c3…5b9abacked Yes | 66c | 3,820$2,511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,309.22 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked No | 16c | 3,521$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.08 | 175 | 30.9%54 W · 121 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 29c | 3,439$1,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,010.02 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa092…11e3backed Yes | 79c | 3,400$2,693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$707 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -4.5wins | -0.13per pick | 64cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7583…6d97backed Yes | 73c | 3,261$2,383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$878.55 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc60…af79backed No | 43c | 3,243$1,407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,406.54 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b0…ba0bbacked No | 35c | 3,103$1,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,090.3 | 177 | 55.4%98 W · 79 L | +17.5wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x40f8…327dbacked No | 19c | 3,051$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.77 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x806b…cd57backed No | 39c | 3,013$1,170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,170 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe864…ce58backed Yes | 76c | 3,000$2,290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$710 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbb…084ebacked No | 43c | 3,000$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed No | 48c | 2,980$1,434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,433.9 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -10.5wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xde87…11a2backed No | 38c | 2,969$1,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,125.24 | 118 | 33.9%40 W · 78 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7f…a831backed No | 33c | 2,903$948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$947.59 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8597…daeebacked Yes | 71c | 2,850$2,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$829.69 | 83 | 59%49 W · 34 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 34c | 2,764$934 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$933.9 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…a156backed Yes | 70c | 2,582$1,794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$787.15 | 155 | 41.9%65 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 34c | 2,565$884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$884.12 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +16.9wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4714…c177backed Yes | 60c | 2,556$1,538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,018.29 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe9…8308backed No | 16c | 2,520$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.97 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee96…3e53backed Yes | 62c | 2,464$1,526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$937.65 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62ba…569bbacked No | 15c | 2,445$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.97 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9be0…b5fdbacked Yes | 61c | 2,425$1,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$945.92 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 30cpaid | +106.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x641b…5433backed Yes | 75c | 2,335$1,751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.64 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | +7.9wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +125.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 20c | 2,330$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.17 | 272 | 33.8%92 W · 180 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x739a…f180backed Yes | 75c | 2,307$1,740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 8c | 2,133$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.16 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd685…8be9backed Yes | 61c | 2,102$1,282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$819.85 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x327c…86efbacked No | 26c | 2,100$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03af…87cbbacked Yes | 72c | 2,083$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.07 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e4…5bbcbacked No | 34c | 2,080$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 19c | 2,045$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.02 | 223 | 33.6%75 W · 148 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb9…4f81backed No | 15c | 2,004$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.57 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe3…73c4backed Yes | 76c | 2,000$1,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.99 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…129abacked Yes | 80c | 1,875$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98bd…8d45backed Yes | 62c | 1,867$1,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$711.96 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +5.0wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed No | 54c | 1,859$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.39 | 84 | 52.4%44 W · 40 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d06…ec01backed Yes | 76c | 1,848$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -56%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb385…7ebdbacked Yes | 75c | 1,846$1,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.65 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x266c…60f0backed No | 24c | 1,846$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.73 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed No | 21c | 1,842$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.4 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf296…84f6backed No | 26c | 1,839$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.22 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x540f…59c0backed No | 25c | 1,800$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 30cpaid | +70%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 29c | 1,734$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.07 | 165 | 41.2%68 W · 97 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf562…4099backed No | 24c | 1,660$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.9 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf861…681fbacked No | 29c | 1,649$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.54 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -37%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc4e5…3263backed Yes | 67c | 1,600$1,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 16c | 1,567$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.87 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 15?this page
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 10?Yes won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 11?Yes won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 12?Yes won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 13?Yes won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 1?No won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 2?No won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31?Yes won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 3?No won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4?No won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 5?No won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?No won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 7?No won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8?Yes won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 9?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.