Middle East · resolved market
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1204e81bd79e5caf0065549828d8c759b94c1914aef018a8535c986064cbe0b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,322,265
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,322,265 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,279 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 44c | 56,475$24,782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,781.73 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…4ff6backed Yes | 30c | 36,806$11,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,110.25 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +6.4wins | +0.20per pick | 21cpaid | +100.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9648…6825backed Yes | 18c | 25,463$4,631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,631.32 | 148 | 21.6%32 W · 116 L | -24.5wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed No | 75c | 22,273$16,688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,584.42 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -10.5wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 10c | 20,505$2,059 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,058.6 | 170 | 18.2%31 W · 139 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 47c | 16,377$7,629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,628.93 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…4597backed Yes | 40c | 14,860$6,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,002.1 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +18.8wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +128.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked No | 32c | 13,069$4,121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,948.24 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30cf…cf8ebacked No | 79c | 12,658$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,658.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x071c…9b75backed Yes | 6c | 11,579$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.07 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 63c | 11,115$7,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,074.15 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x69f9…7478backed No | 55c | 10,529$5,756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,772.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f80…2184backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.3 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5c…0c2abacked No | 64c | 9,718$6,182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,535.38 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked No | 54c | 9,622$5,218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,404.08 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24de…83cbbacked No | 53c | 9,566$5,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,530.38 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x006c…16eabacked No | 71c | 9,265$6,578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,686.73 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x271a…5d93backed Yes | 74c | 9,029$6,713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,713.05 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25db…28debacked Yes | 0c | 8,865$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.93 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | +11.7wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes | 47c | 8,411$3,981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,980.79 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -6.7wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4e84…ef69backed No | 49c | 7,997$3,917 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,080.34 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 64c | 7,945$5,121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,823.98 | 205 | 49.8%102 W · 103 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x087e…51c5backed Yes | 38c | 7,776$2,978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,978.18 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -65%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2e42…0dfebacked Yes | 1c | 7,740$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.55 | 165 | 7.3%12 W · 153 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 63c | 7,201$4,539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,662.3 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 43c | 6,454$2,794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,659.76 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked Yes | 18c | 6,331$1,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,129.95 | 161 | 25.5%41 W · 120 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5531…c763backed No | 63c | 6,205$3,933 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,271.68 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a3…1807backed Yes | 60c | 6,000$3,597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,596.66 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 19c | 6,000$1,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,159.99 | 215 | 31.2%67 W · 148 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09aa…0879backed Yes | 35c | 5,963$2,088 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,088.23 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xade7…3a26backed Yes | 60c | 5,939$3,562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,562.39 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.22per pick | 41cpaid | +81.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd08…4a59backed Yes | 60c | 5,640$3,389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,389.32 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c7…5510backed No | 47c | 5,290$2,497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,793.23 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 70c | 5,269$3,675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,593.43 | 341 | 43.4%148 W · 193 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x934c…cd38backed Yes | 16c | 5,135$834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$834.05 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +11.0wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed No | 74c | 5,000$3,696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,304.23 | 225 | 47.1%106 W · 119 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…932cbacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 112 | 8.9%10 W · 102 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +149.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c13…ce0ebacked Yes | 1c | 4,929$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 63 | 9.5%6 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa79e…4229backed No | 41c | 4,839$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,839.19 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -4.4wins | -0.21per pick | 40cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9846…ca9ebacked No | 64c | 4,511$2,865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,645.66 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedc2…ad9fbacked No | 38c | 4,450$1,673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,776.66 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +10.2wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 25c | 4,434$1,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,129.48 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4b…541bbacked No | 51c | 4,222$2,173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,048.75 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -4.2wins | -0.22per pick | 49cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…d4ecbacked Yes | 24c | 4,212$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe746…ff6abacked Yes | 49c | 4,165$2,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,045 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked No | 27c | 4,081$1,096 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,984.43 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed No | 37c | 4,000$1,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,519.99 | 134 | 41.8%56 W · 78 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc70f…5de7backed Yes | 8c | 4,000$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -85%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3968…2b0fbacked Yes | 47c | 3,793$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b44…264ebacked Yes | 33c | 3,792$1,264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,264.11 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +9.7wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +156.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc296…0f22backed Yes | 40c | 3,630$1,452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,452.17 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.23per pick | 35cpaid | +44%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x791e…17ddbacked Yes | 63c | 3,514$2,214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,213.7 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 45c | 3,503$1,592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,910.67 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x540f…59c0backed No | 26c | 3,477$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,577.28 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 30cpaid | +70%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e4…a26bbacked No | 69c | 3,400$2,348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,051.99 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x756d…6376backed Yes | 58c | 3,379$1,957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,956.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fdd…0a35backed No | 64c | 3,378$2,163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,214.78 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7e…1cc7backed Yes | 54c | 3,342$1,809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,809.32 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +361.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e24…8266backed Yes | 53c | 3,317$1,757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,756.7 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -5.2wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -53%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x489b…7433backed No | 66c | 3,241$2,127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,114.4 | 31 | 6.5%2 W · 29 L | -6.1wins | -0.20per pick | 26cpaid | -91%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 36c | 3,222$1,156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,155.88 | 77 | 9.1%7 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda2a…d889backed Yes | 17c | 2,985$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb9…be64backed Yes | 28c | 2,907$823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$823 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…6320backed Yes | 4c | 2,891$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.53 | 104 | 17.3%18 W · 86 L | -13.7wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x784f…5df9backed Yes | 76c | 2,800$2,123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,122.85 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0384…27fbbacked Yes | 76c | 2,717$2,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,070.46 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe5…a718backed Yes | 35c | 2,660$943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$943 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…bfa2backed Yes | 16c | 2,646$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.77 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 27c | 2,629$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.8 | 203 | 36.9%75 W · 128 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x342e…22f8backed No | 72c | 2,550$1,836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$713.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 63c | 2,420$1,513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$907.61 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -23.0wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x58aa…a481backed No | 41c | 2,412$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,411.59 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +6.0wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 34c | 2,397$820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$819.95 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe43d…3978backed No | 70c | 2,366$1,664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$702.18 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -4.7wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x837b…cdebbacked Yes | 42c | 2,315$966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$966.39 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf900…cd0cbacked No | 56c | 2,313$1,287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,026.38 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | -14.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -46%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x77b0…ba0bbacked No | 46c | 2,300$1,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,252 | 177 | 55.4%98 W · 79 L | +17.5wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 67c | 2,297$1,542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$754.4 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked Yes | 40c | 2,291$917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$916.9 | 166 | 38.6%64 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d77…28debacked No | 40c | 2,254$894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,360.43 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4738…7d2ebacked Yes | 44c | 2,247$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.8 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda63…b031backed No | 71c | 2,230$1,578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$651.75 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -31%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7583…6d97backed No | 76c | 2,217$1,686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.35 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 2,200$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.57 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0c…04b6backed Yes | 46c | 2,190$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.09 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 33c | 2,100$692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,408 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 34c | 2,073$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697.02 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda9e…ac09backed Yes | 58c | 2,065$1,196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,196.29 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 74c | 2,056$1,522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.03 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x154d…99f9backed Yes | 44c | 2,018$888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$887.99 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +74.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…321ebacked No | 43c | 2,000$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,150 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea79…a9ccbacked Yes | 53c | 2,000$1,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,058 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ed…9374backed No | 73c | 2,000$1,469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.97 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…e5fabacked No | 65c | 1,919$1,248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$671.17 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +114.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…9871backed Yes | 24c | 1,900$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd685…8be9backed Yes | 49c | 1,897$929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$929.36 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89a7…e7dbbacked No | 51c | 1,866$958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$908.25 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c2…f0a4backed No | 77c | 1,807$1,399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.48 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 69cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed No | 74c | 1,800$1,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?this page
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 10?Yes won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 11?Yes won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 12?Yes won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 13?Yes won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 15?Yes won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 1?No won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 2?No won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31?Yes won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 3?No won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4?No won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 5?No won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 7?No won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8?Yes won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 9?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.