Middle East · resolved market
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf5cd656f01d2931021935041b065d7cb17b85a7631c742f41317a95dc4d3557b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $774,270
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $752,336
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $774,270 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 441 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa4c1…0f60backed Yes | 0c | 61,107$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.4 | 43 | 4.7%2 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…6320backed Yes | 6c | 25,610$1,434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,433.77 | 104 | 17.3%18 W · 86 L | -13.7wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0649…a47bbacked Yes | 40c | 16,940$6,839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,839.17 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x939a…6f9abacked Yes | 26c | 16,379$4,193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,193.4 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 19c | 15,370$2,854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,854.04 | 170 | 18.2%31 W · 139 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 24c | 13,364$3,193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,193.26 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 72c | 13,089$9,364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,724.5 | 205 | 49.8%102 W · 103 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b33…9a34backed Yes | 37c | 13,058$4,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,800.22 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd05a…9c63backed Yes | 0c | 12,752$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 8c | 12,593$1,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,005.99 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x625f…d53abacked Yes | 0c | 11,384$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 36cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8597…daeebacked No | 76c | 10,760$8,231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,529.81 | 83 | 59%49 W · 34 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 0c | 10,542$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5922…3388backed Yes | 44c | 9,715$4,258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,258.48 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d66…05a3backed Yes | 3c | 9,493$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked No | 57c | 9,319$5,281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,038.5 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72a2…7b65backed No | 80c | 8,436$6,737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,698.68 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed No | 45c | 8,016$3,572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,444.14 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7806…6594backed Yes | 23c | 6,660$1,507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,507.16 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd685…8be9backed Yes | 52c | 6,336$3,311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,311.3 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa79e…4229backed Yes | 79c | 6,326$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -4.4wins | -0.21per pick | 40cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked No | 40c | 6,152$2,473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,678.55 | 160 | 41.9%67 W · 93 L | +12.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x69d1…b1b9backed Yes | 18c | 6,069$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +4.4wins | +0.23per pick | 30cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…932cbacked Yes | 3c | 5,555$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.65 | 112 | 8.9%10 W · 102 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +149.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…fa73backed Yes | 22c | 5,171$1,112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,111.86 | 41 | 4.9%2 W · 39 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea7…7e1cbacked Yes | 39c | 5,139$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e24…8266backed Yes | 16c | 5,127$802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$802.03 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -5.2wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -53%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb8…5e8fbacked No | 70c | 5,031$3,536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,494.53 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…1086backed Yes | 5c | 4,979$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.37 | 148 | 8.1%12 W · 136 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +238.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5723…da89backed Yes | 14c | 4,828$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682.15 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe5…a718backed Yes | 11c | 4,601$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 7c | 4,039$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.4 | 77 | 9.1%7 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…4ff6backed Yes | 61c | 3,975$2,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,419.87 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +6.4wins | +0.20per pick | 21cpaid | +100.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 63c | 3,970$2,490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,479.76 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9846…ca9ebacked No | 77c | 3,962$3,052 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$909.82 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 46c | 3,655$1,664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,991.2 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 11c | 3,627$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.54 | 123 | 25.2%31 W · 92 L | +15.2wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 46c | 3,543$1,618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,925.14 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef99…e6fdbacked Yes | 35c | 3,463$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +90.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed No | 50c | 3,204$1,618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,585.83 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b0…ba0bbacked No | 50c | 3,119$1,566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,552.81 | 177 | 55.4%98 W · 79 L | +17.5wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 3,098$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.49 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed No | 57c | 3,069$1,747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,322.73 | 225 | 29.8%67 W · 158 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 77c | 3,000$2,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 19c | 2,946$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.45 | 218 | 31.2%68 W · 150 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 56c | 2,901$1,621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,279.9 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 5c | 2,873$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.41 | 291 | 29.9%87 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdaef…54e9backed No | 68c | 2,842$1,933 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$909.47 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 21c | 2,753$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,173.74 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb58c…3660backed Yes | 6c | 2,744$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -70%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef5f…e090backed Yes | 57c | 2,726$1,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,550 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8561…337bbacked Yes | 12c | 2,661$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.1 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94eb…37e6backed No | 72c | 2,654$1,899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$755.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3437…f8f3backed No | 59c | 2,599$1,525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,074.14 | 159 | 53.5%85 W · 74 L | +16.6wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…0d1bbacked Yes | 18c | 2,557$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.44 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9f…e03bbacked Yes | 3c | 2,515$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.41 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d1…d015backed No | 75c | 2,509$1,890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618.31 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf60…a6f5backed No | 80c | 2,504$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.85 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedc2…ad9fbacked Yes | 6c | 2,484$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.3 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +10.2wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddd…5ca4backed Yes | 6c | 2,298$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 10cpaid | +120%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2835…1c56backed No | 75c | 2,272$1,709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc5…a303backed Yes | 22c | 2,216$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479 | 102 | 27.5%28 W · 74 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e7f…8605backed Yes | 1c | 2,210$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6d…f391backed Yes | 47c | 2,166$1,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,017.73 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 14c | 2,158$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.47 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e1…d3a6backed Yes | 43c | 2,088$903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$902.97 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9718…20eebacked Yes | 15c | 2,081$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.96 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb37a…1aa1backed No | 59c | 2,048$1,204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$843.61 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x566a…0d19backed Yes | 25c | 2,015$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90da…4042backed Yes | 5c | 2,010$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.5 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +71.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 2,009$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.15 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed Yes | 1c | 2,002$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 139 | 18.7%26 W · 113 L | -13.9wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f1…fee6backed Yes | 7c | 2,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 33 | 0%0 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…5d99backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…7cadbacked Yes | 34c | 2,000$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.59 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 18cpaid | +142.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x512e…4f1bbacked Yes | 39c | 1,830$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718.28 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x356e…75b8backed Yes | 33c | 1,821$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41c…d7c5backed No | 79c | 1,800$1,424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.7 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 75c | 1,791$1,343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.63 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -23.0wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x56bb…2949backed Yes | 59c | 1,776$1,046 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,046.3 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed No | 41c | 1,765$716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,049.17 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +9.6wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…2202backed No | 59c | 1,697$1,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$687.64 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae84…1141backed Yes | 34c | 1,696$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.99 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0033…5fa4backed Yes | 30c | 1,688$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06ac…79ecbacked No | 54c | 1,683$915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$768.45 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5577…01dabacked Yes | 21c | 1,639$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.39 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed No | 63c | 1,500$941 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558.99 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82fb…da0ebacked Yes | 76c | 1,484$1,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,129.39 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e3…58edbacked Yes | 25c | 1,457$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.54 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed No | 64c | 1,432$911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.49 | 160 | 61.9%99 W · 61 L | +9.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e34…c876backed Yes | 51c | 1,403$709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709.03 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a6…22b2backed Yes | 1c | 1,400$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +88.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8a23…125dbacked Yes | 59c | 1,352$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 4c | 1,350$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.6 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43ce…22e5backed No | 76c | 1,340$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.88 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27bf…e633backed Yes | 9c | 1,336$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdde3…e797backed Yes | 42c | 1,307$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.84 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc11e…dfcdbacked Yes | 8c | 1,307$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47dc…4342backed Yes | 34c | 1,301$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.35 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 4c | 1,300$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.11 | 247 | 12.1%30 W · 217 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 3?this page
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 10?Yes won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 11?Yes won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 12?Yes won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 13?Yes won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 15?Yes won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 1?No won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 2?No won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31?Yes won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4?No won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 5?No won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?No won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 7?No won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8?Yes won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 9?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.