TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x2106…fa73

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
88
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
12

Best Category: Tennis, grading 59 out of 100 (+0.08 per pick).

Best Category Tennis at 59 out of 100; worst Middle East at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 3, 2026, EDT414.9%2 W · 39 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick8cpaid-43.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 41 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$151Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$151.32
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$120
Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.51
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$58.42
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.27
Will Iran strike Cyprus in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will France strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$162Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$161.8
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$124.58
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$182Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$182.29
Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$69.66
Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$77.87
Will Muhammad Mirbaqiri be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$70
Will Maryam Rajavi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Sadegh Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$91Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$90.82
Will Ali Motahari be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Showing 25 of 41 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT90%0 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.39
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$70
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
Will Russia strike Kyiv on March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by March 31? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$110
All 9 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT90%0 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$97.11
Will Elon Musk and Sam Altman settle?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$110
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Claude 4.7 be released on or prior to April 16, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$87.61
GPT-5.4 released by March 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$100
All 9 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT90%0 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT650%3 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.40per pick10cpaid+580.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
Tennis — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Nantes win on 2026-03-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Will AJ Auxerre win on 2026-03-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10
All 2 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
IPO — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will SpaceX IPO on June 11, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
All 2 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Mar 3, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: AFC Bournemouth (-2.5)backed AFC Bournemouth · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10
All 2 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 29, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$168Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$168.14
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-03-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.