TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,509,427
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,386,667

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,509,427 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,284 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes22c116,319$25,912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,911.7835631.7%113 W · 243 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes20c109,996$21,462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,462.1337740.1%151 W · 226 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x162f…798dbacked Yes18c89,469$16,291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,291.0716638.6%64 W · 102 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4478…02a4backed Yes14c70,996$10,054 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,053.6328734.5%99 W · 188 L+21.3wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+0.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf99f…8742backed Yes37c53,834$19,717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,716.923330.3%10 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b40…8ab4backed Yes36c44,415$15,996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,995.655034%17 W · 33 L-4.5wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-30.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5739…5f1abacked No61c44,147$27,137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,010.136532.3%21 W · 44 L-6.7wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-14.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x12ee…780abacked Yes8c38,970$3,239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,239.0450%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked Yes25c29,380$7,259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,258.5236227.9%101 W · 261 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-28.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes27c26,204$7,142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,141.9248923.5%115 W · 374 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c98…f4f4backed No75c24,027$18,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,977.12147.6%10 W · 11 L-3.0wins-0.14per pick62cpaid-17.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed Yes43c22,346$9,567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,566.7735347%166 W · 187 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xabb4…7b57backed Yes38c20,000$7,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,699.97425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-59.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed Yes28c20,000$5,682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,681.9826429.2%77 W · 187 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x06a3…7cd0backed Yes8c16,420$1,293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,293.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ef7…21bebacked Yes24c16,064$3,786 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,785.783542.9%15 W · 20 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2549…74f7backed No69c15,375$10,670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,705.51369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick57cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa65c…7997backed Yes45c14,500$6,486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,485.544450%22 W · 22 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb8b4…1f6ebacked No59c14,411$8,482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,929.045232.7%17 W · 35 L-4.5wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-12.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Yes19c14,089$2,736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,736.314814.6%7 W · 41 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-67.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa022…77f8backed Yes5c12,806$699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.178937.1%33 W · 56 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+14.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5011…220ebacked Yes49c12,439$6,096 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,095.9610928.4%31 W · 78 L-15.2wins-0.14per pick42cpaid+12.5%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes2c12,100$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.06964.2%4 W · 92 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-25.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22f1…6415backed No75c11,523$8,653 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,870.0525843.4%112 W · 146 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-27%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e84…ef69backed Yes16c11,354$1,809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,809.086026.7%16 W · 44 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No75c11,128$8,344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,784.7467841.6%282 W · 396 L-20.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3df…f557backed Yes11c10,892$1,195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,194.6860%0 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x347b…c9bcbacked Yes12c10,142$1,192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,192.38933.7%30 W · 59 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+47.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc84f…e0c5backed Yes32c10,000$3,225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,225.025536.4%20 W · 35 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e1f…c855backed Yes15c10,000$1,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,45010639.6%42 W · 64 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes27c9,867$2,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,620.2850130.5%153 W · 348 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd34b…0004backed No60c9,818$5,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,918.316253.2%33 W · 29 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2120…2647backed Yes3c9,542$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.932352.2%12 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-19.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7447…a16dbacked Yes42c9,112$3,858 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,858.1116125.5%41 W · 120 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes21c8,852$1,875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,875.2451138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd67b…5780backed No62c8,385$5,235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,149.8238247.6%182 W · 200 L+37.1wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+32.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf1b2…a321backed Yes13c7,301$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$980.143540%14 W · 21 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-13.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4ac…ad7fbacked Yes3c7,200$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1801421.4%3 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick11cpaid+125.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6139…6b7abacked Yes24c7,000$1,681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,68121531.2%67 W · 148 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-34.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x53bf…bc10backed Yes26c6,996$1,791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,791.43933.3%3 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-31.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x158a…03fcbacked Yes20c6,849$1,389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,389.082330.4%7 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-20.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked Yes56c6,706$3,761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,760.5221751.6%112 W · 105 L+8.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-1.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed No52c6,664$3,477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,187.19560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+114.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d70…27e8backed No64c6,529$4,149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,380.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+57.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7300…e2e1backed Yes5c6,102$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300119.1%1 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.19per pick28cpaid-88.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2d74…cfb2backed Yes3c6,044$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick17cpaid-27.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf19…6402backed Yes17c6,024$1,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,029.7810335.9%37 W · 66 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd10f…f12fbacked Yes74c5,949$4,385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,385.53240.6%13 W · 19 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes48c5,842$2,825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,824.7424149.4%119 W · 122 L+1.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2d4…7d90backed Yes3c5,831$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1623033.3%10 W · 20 L+0.1wins0.00per pick33cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x115b…6395backed No60c5,826$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,325.86366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe74d…22fdbacked No43c5,723$2,464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,259.552236.4%8 W · 14 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick29cpaid-19.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x83e8…7b89backed Yes5c5,691$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.2333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick6cpaid+406.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a40…4093backed Yes21c5,482$1,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,140.389825.5%25 W · 73 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-24.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xced2…1076backed No68c5,432$3,712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,719.911947.4%9 W · 10 L+2.7wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+16.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes49c5,398$2,621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,621.318641.9%36 W · 50 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-9.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x48ed…33bebacked Yes13c5,334$705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$704.55608.3%5 W · 55 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick16cpaid-68.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes9c5,198$474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$473.8249023.5%115 W · 375 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes6c5,065$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.79588.6%5 W · 53 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-70.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c76…9349backed Yes29c5,051$1,472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,472.41010%1 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick22cpaid0%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b82…7a36backed No60c4,761$2,861 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,900.011145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+14.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xae52…405cbacked Yes15c4,597$681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$680.722524%6 W · 19 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes19c4,577$856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$855.6420736.2%75 W · 132 L-0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid-18.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes30c4,562$1,387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,387.3221521.9%47 W · 168 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick16cpaid+29.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x993c…6787backed No67c4,500$3,007 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,493.317737.3%66 W · 111 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde87…11a2backed Yes34c4,395$1,502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,501.7311833.9%40 W · 78 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+29.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x882b…a746backed No43c4,345$1,876 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,469.156749.3%33 W · 34 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd88…4037backed Yes9c4,334$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.831947.4%9 W · 10 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd14a…a8adbacked Yes28c4,300$1,218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,218.312352.2%12 W · 11 L+2.3wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+132.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7420…26e2backed No78c4,299$3,357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$942.111926.3%5 W · 14 L-5.1wins-0.27per pick53cpaid-60.4%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x0899…2f0fbacked Yes13c4,104$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick17cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Yes22c4,095$911 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$911.417839.9%71 W · 107 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b2c…a9f3backed Yes10c4,070$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.382050%10 W · 10 L+3.0wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+96.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x72de…a5edbacked Yes25c3,975$994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$993.84623.9%11 W · 35 L-0.1wins0.00per pick24cpaid-26.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7ee…0e97backed No77c3,947$3,033 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$913.976045%27 W · 33 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick51cpaid+4.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes27c3,903$1,042 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,042.4647334%161 W · 312 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a63…b4efbacked Yes20c3,737$735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$735.246936.2%25 W · 44 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-27.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5001…e597backed Yes32c3,730$1,197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,197.02966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+22.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37a1…dad2backed No58c3,688$2,147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,541.231952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+60.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c59…1766backed Yes36c3,664$1,301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,301.18247.6%39 W · 43 L+8.2wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+67.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed Yes24c3,656$862 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$861.5631649.7%157 W · 159 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b21…deb6backed No75c3,654$2,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$903.563655.6%20 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-10.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No69c3,482$2,417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,065.2245843.7%200 W · 258 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4669…99c0backed Yes19c3,393$657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$656.882462.5%15 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick55cpaid-5.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Yes24c3,393$824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$823.9319930.7%61 W · 138 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-33.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c38…83d0backed Yes6c3,384$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.05825%2 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.18per pick7cpaid+128.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes5c3,384$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.454195.3%22 W · 397 L+1.4wins0.00per pick5cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e19…bd99backed Yes45c3,359$1,495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4952536%9 W · 16 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-8.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x65b9…dc25backed Yes11c3,349$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.155910.2%6 W · 53 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+38.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97af…9bc6backed No77c3,315$2,562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$752.854652.2%24 W · 22 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b56…715ebacked No78c3,259$2,533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$726.252263.6%14 W · 8 L-0.1wins0.00per pick64cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d60…453dbacked No78c3,210$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$709.984148.8%20 W · 21 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-24.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x69c9…3b29backed No65c3,171$2,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,101.297749.4%38 W · 39 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+26.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e73…a236backed No66c3,161$2,078 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,082.996738.8%26 W · 41 L-6.1wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-33.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes37c3,138$1,156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,155.6615230.3%46 W · 106 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-24.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e42…0dfebacked Yes2c3,070$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.251657.3%12 W · 153 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-17.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0482…6b0abacked Yes26c3,062$783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$782.6621525.1%54 W · 161 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+30.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xab33…cf5dbacked Yes39c3,054$1,178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,178.481735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-39%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd44e…67e2backed No75c3,016$2,273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$743.121259.9%127 W · 85 L+21.8wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+21.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes5c2,891$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.797135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.