Middle East · resolved market
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd08544f6162283dc8d0a82f16362aab837a8537379df9bbe604960eec9cd4618
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,509,427
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,386,667
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,509,427 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,284 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 22c | 116,319$25,912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,911.78 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 20c | 109,996$21,462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,462.13 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked Yes | 18c | 89,469$16,291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,291.07 | 166 | 38.6%64 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 14c | 70,996$10,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,053.63 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf99f…8742backed Yes | 37c | 53,834$19,717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,716.92 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b40…8ab4backed Yes | 36c | 44,415$15,996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,995.65 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5739…5f1abacked No | 61c | 44,147$27,137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,010.13 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12ee…780abacked Yes | 8c | 38,970$3,239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,239.04 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 25c | 29,380$7,259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,258.52 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 27c | 26,204$7,142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,141.92 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c98…f4f4backed No | 75c | 24,027$18,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,977.1 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 62cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 43c | 22,346$9,567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,566.77 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb4…7b57backed Yes | 38c | 20,000$7,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,699.97 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 28c | 20,000$5,682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,681.98 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06a3…7cd0backed Yes | 8c | 16,420$1,293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,293.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef7…21bebacked Yes | 24c | 16,064$3,786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,785.78 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2549…74f7backed No | 69c | 15,375$10,670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,705.5 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…7997backed Yes | 45c | 14,500$6,486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,485.54 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b4…1f6ebacked No | 59c | 14,411$8,482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,929.04 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 19c | 14,089$2,736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,736.31 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa022…77f8backed Yes | 5c | 12,806$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.17 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…220ebacked Yes | 49c | 12,439$6,096 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,095.96 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | -15.2wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 2c | 12,100$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.06 | 96 | 4.2%4 W · 92 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…6415backed No | 75c | 11,523$8,653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,870.05 | 258 | 43.4%112 W · 146 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e84…ef69backed Yes | 16c | 11,354$1,809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,809.08 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 11,128$8,344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,784.74 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3df…f557backed Yes | 11c | 10,892$1,195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,194.68 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked Yes | 12c | 10,142$1,192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,192.3 | 89 | 33.7%30 W · 59 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc84f…e0c5backed Yes | 32c | 10,000$3,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,225.02 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…c855backed Yes | 15c | 10,000$1,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,450 | 106 | 39.6%42 W · 64 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 27c | 9,867$2,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,620.28 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed No | 60c | 9,818$5,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,918.31 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2120…2647backed Yes | 3c | 9,542$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.93 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked Yes | 42c | 9,112$3,858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,858.11 | 161 | 25.5%41 W · 120 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 21c | 8,852$1,875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,875.24 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed No | 62c | 8,385$5,235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,149.82 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b2…a321backed Yes | 13c | 7,301$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980.14 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ac…ad7fbacked Yes | 3c | 7,200$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +125.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 24c | 7,000$1,681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,681 | 215 | 31.2%67 W · 148 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53bf…bc10backed Yes | 26c | 6,996$1,791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,791.43 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x158a…03fcbacked Yes | 20c | 6,849$1,389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,389.08 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 56c | 6,706$3,761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,760.52 | 217 | 51.6%112 W · 105 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed No | 52c | 6,664$3,477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,187.19 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +114.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d70…27e8backed No | 64c | 6,529$4,149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,380.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e2e1backed Yes | 5c | 6,102$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 28cpaid | -88.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d74…cfb2backed Yes | 3c | 6,044$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf19…6402backed Yes | 17c | 6,024$1,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,029.78 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd10f…f12fbacked Yes | 74c | 5,949$4,385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,385.5 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes | 48c | 5,842$2,825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,824.74 | 241 | 49.4%119 W · 122 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d4…7d90backed Yes | 3c | 5,831$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x115b…6395backed No | 60c | 5,826$3,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,325.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe74d…22fdbacked No | 43c | 5,723$2,464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,259.55 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83e8…7b89backed Yes | 5c | 5,691$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 6cpaid | +406.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a40…4093backed Yes | 21c | 5,482$1,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,140.38 | 98 | 25.5%25 W · 73 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xced2…1076backed No | 68c | 5,432$3,712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,719.91 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 49c | 5,398$2,621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,621.31 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48ed…33bebacked Yes | 13c | 5,334$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704.55 | 60 | 8.3%5 W · 55 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 9c | 5,198$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.82 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes | 6c | 5,065$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.79 | 58 | 8.6%5 W · 53 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c76…9349backed Yes | 29c | 5,051$1,472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,472.4 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | 0%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b82…7a36backed No | 60c | 4,761$2,861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,900.01 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae52…405cbacked Yes | 15c | 4,597$681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680.72 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 19c | 4,577$856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$855.64 | 207 | 36.2%75 W · 132 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 30c | 4,562$1,387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,387.32 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed No | 67c | 4,500$3,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,493.3 | 177 | 37.3%66 W · 111 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde87…11a2backed Yes | 34c | 4,395$1,502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,501.73 | 118 | 33.9%40 W · 78 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x882b…a746backed No | 43c | 4,345$1,876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,469.15 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd88…4037backed Yes | 9c | 4,334$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.83 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd14a…a8adbacked Yes | 28c | 4,300$1,218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,218.31 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +132.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7420…26e2backed No | 78c | 4,299$3,357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$942.11 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -5.1wins | -0.27per pick | 53cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0899…2f0fbacked Yes | 13c | 4,104$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 22c | 4,095$911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$911.4 | 178 | 39.9%71 W · 107 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b2c…a9f3backed Yes | 10c | 4,070$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.38 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x72de…a5edbacked Yes | 25c | 3,975$994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$993.8 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ee…0e97backed No | 77c | 3,947$3,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$913.97 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 27c | 3,903$1,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,042.46 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a63…b4efbacked Yes | 20c | 3,737$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735.24 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5001…e597backed Yes | 32c | 3,730$1,197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,197.02 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37a1…dad2backed No | 58c | 3,688$2,147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,541.23 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed Yes | 36c | 3,664$1,301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,301.1 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +8.2wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed Yes | 24c | 3,656$862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$861.56 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b21…deb6backed No | 75c | 3,654$2,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$903.56 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 69c | 3,482$2,417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,065.22 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4669…99c0backed Yes | 19c | 3,393$657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656.88 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 24c | 3,393$824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$823.93 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c38…83d0backed Yes | 6c | 3,384$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.05 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +128.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 5c | 3,384$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.45 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e19…bd99backed Yes | 45c | 3,359$1,495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,495 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65b9…dc25backed Yes | 11c | 3,349$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.15 | 59 | 10.2%6 W · 53 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97af…9bc6backed No | 77c | 3,315$2,562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$752.85 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b56…715ebacked No | 78c | 3,259$2,533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$726.25 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked No | 78c | 3,210$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709.98 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69c9…3b29backed No | 65c | 3,171$2,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,101.29 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e73…a236backed No | 66c | 3,161$2,078 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,082.99 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 37c | 3,138$1,156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,155.66 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e42…0dfebacked Yes | 2c | 3,070$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.25 | 165 | 7.3%12 W · 153 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 26c | 3,062$783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$782.66 | 215 | 25.1%54 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab33…cf5dbacked Yes | 39c | 3,054$1,178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,178.48 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 75c | 3,016$2,273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$743.1 | 212 | 59.9%127 W · 85 L | +21.8wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 2,891$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.79 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.