TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x72de…a5ed

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
129
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: Fifa International, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Fifa International at 52 out of 100; worst World Politics at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT5414.8%8 W · 46 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+36.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 54 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$845Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$844.65
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+759.6%+$1,899.12
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$548Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$548.2
Harry Kane: 2+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Argentina?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.5
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$1,700Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,700.2
Exact Score: France 0 - 2 Spain?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+2,122.2%+$668.5
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Spain?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Spain?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Spain?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$28
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Spain?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$36
Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$330Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$330
Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$66.95
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$141Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$141.4
Will Norway win on 2026-07-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+400%+$200
Will Senegal win on 2026-07-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will DR Congo win on 2026-07-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$180Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$220
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$209Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$209.09
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$746Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$745.6
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Showing 25 of 54 picks, newest first.
Middle Eastlast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT4623.9%11 W · 35 L-0.1wins0.00per pick24cpaid-26.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 46 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$105
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$130
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$132Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT+354.5%+$468
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$340Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$339.54
Will Kanye West visit Israel by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$178Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$178.3
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$178Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$178
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$237Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$237.01
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$400
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$57.48
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$192Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$192
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Israel strike on Yemen by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$994Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$993.8
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$105
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$1,174Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$1,221.75
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+173.5%+$173.49
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$419Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$419.5
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$2,160Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+71%+$1,534.42
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+125.2%+$250.43
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$427Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$426.82
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+261%+$116.99
US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$361Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+230%+$831.1
Showing 25 of 46 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick20cpaid-67.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$2,584Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,583.9
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$2,060Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,060
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$134Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$134
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+157.5%+$315.08
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$990Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$989.8
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$984Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$983.8
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$94.44
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$284Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$284.46
All 8 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick12cpaid+177.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 16, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-57.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Apr 29, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$126Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$125.99
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$1,222Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,222
All 2 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.88
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 29, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.