TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,551,322
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,461,981

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,551,322 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 630 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes19c87,359$16,723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,723.4935631.7%113 W · 243 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6139…6b7abacked Yes14c36,255$5,164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,163.5421531.2%67 W · 148 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-34.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes3c27,624$829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$828.8751138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b6e…8b97backed Yes1c19,898$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes11c19,432$2,210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,209.62360%0 W · 36 L-5.2wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x162f…798dbacked Yes2c18,969$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.4116638.6%64 W · 102 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1b2…a321backed Yes25c18,801$4,674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,674.033540%14 W · 21 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-13.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e86…8727backed Yes23c18,443$4,304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,303.95966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+61.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes26c16,608$4,385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,384.8628750.2%144 W · 143 L-1.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes12c16,470$2,042 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,041.5117018.2%31 W · 139 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+77.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked Yes24c16,228$3,945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,944.5236227.9%101 W · 261 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-28.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa022…77f8backed Yes5c16,164$756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$756.498937.1%33 W · 56 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+14.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd742…79e4backed Yes19c15,521$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,000616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick29cpaid-47.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb881…58fabacked Yes13c13,672$1,737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,737.381338.5%5 W · 8 L+2.8wins+0.22per pick17cpaid+107.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2851…dd19backed Yes4c13,482$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002015%3 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-67.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48ed…33bebacked Yes21c12,980$2,737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,737.03608.3%5 W · 55 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick16cpaid-68.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1b82…7a36backed No73c12,379$8,989 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,389.651145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+14.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7525…cde1backed Yes8c12,172$924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$923.934537.8%17 W · 28 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05e2…6e12backed No76c12,146$9,235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,910.651560%9 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb809…b13cbacked Yes9c11,331$1,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0121625%4 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+70.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7447…a16dbacked Yes1c10,865$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.1916125.5%41 W · 120 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed No80c10,452$8,327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,124.4535347%166 W · 187 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes2c10,283$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.3549023.5%115 W · 375 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2aef…7143backed Yes35c10,235$3,571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,570.67887.5%7 W · 1 L+4.5wins+0.56per pick32cpaid+217.9%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed No75c10,000$7,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,5003748.6%18 W · 19 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+22.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4042…ddfcbacked Yes18c9,680$1,709 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,708.812317.4%4 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick18cpaid+97.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81ab…ba97backed Yes15c9,505$1,399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,398.647330.1%22 W · 51 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-22.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c54…5840backed Yes15c9,162$1,342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,342119.1%1 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.20per pick29cpaid-83.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x07cb…867fbacked Yes3c8,934$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes4c8,920$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.173717%26 W · 345 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes17c8,418$1,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,425.0335819%68 W · 290 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes15c8,295$1,283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,28389617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7681…b753backed Yes10c7,847$752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751.94650%3 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.39per pick11cpaid+845.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes19c7,772$1,471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,471.4812634.9%44 W · 82 L+8.8wins+0.07per pick28cpaid-3.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7408…db0dbacked Yes6c7,667$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460966.7%6 W · 3 L+4.4wins+0.48per pick18cpaid+425.3%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed No70c7,631$5,328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,303.075745.6%26 W · 31 L-8.3wins-0.15per pick60cpaid-33.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd8c7…0e95backed Yes2c7,548$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1313925.6%10 W · 29 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-25.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ef3…16dbbacked Yes12c7,033$859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$859.461926.3%5 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-14.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b99…1dd2backed Yes29c6,986$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0001735.3%6 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-51.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes7c6,728$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.2342120.9%88 W · 333 L-0.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid-39.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes4c6,691$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.727135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f62…e744backed No78c6,254$4,883 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,370.713030%9 W · 21 L-9.6wins-0.32per pick62cpaid-55.1%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x8bbe…b9dcbacked No72c6,000$4,330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6701625%4 W · 12 L-4.8wins-0.30per pick55cpaid-43.1%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xf74e…dda4backed Yes31c6,000$1,854 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,854.2650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38fe…4c18backed Yes4c5,119$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.793748.6%18 W · 19 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+26.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x75b9…8006backed Yes9c5,060$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445.3425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes4c4,968$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.921245.6%7 W · 117 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96ef…5523backed No71c4,896$3,474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,422.1611842.4%50 W · 68 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick37cpaid-5.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf041…dde5backed No78c4,870$3,781 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,089.232347.8%11 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick55cpaid+93.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b5f…11c5backed Yes20c4,856$956 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95614325.9%37 W · 106 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec80…2cd7backed Yes21c4,794$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick7cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e84…ef69backed Yes2c4,577$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.136026.7%16 W · 44 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes5c4,535$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.884625%23 W · 439 L+1.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06ac…79ecbacked No70c4,526$3,163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,362.955054%27 W · 23 L+0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid+13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3a5…5f3cbacked Yes17c4,509$775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$775.075219.2%10 W · 42 L-12.2wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-62.8%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x1e34…b86fbacked No74c4,415$3,273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,142.411346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+32.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes5c4,312$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.864195.3%22 W · 397 L+1.4wins0.00per pick5cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5060…a780backed Yes28c4,215$1,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1802552%13 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0042…321ebacked Yes6c4,198$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.498530.6%26 W · 59 L0.0wins0.00per pick31cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes0c4,049$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.314769.9%47 W · 429 L+15.1wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+75.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x233b…1f2cbacked Yes5c4,026$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22010240.2%41 W · 61 L+0.4wins0.00per pick40cpaid+18.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Yes4c3,886$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.919139.6%36 W · 55 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd44e…67e2backed No57c3,861$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,660.621259.9%127 W · 85 L+21.8wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+21.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6103…f2d9backed Yes3c3,853$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1332810.7%3 W · 25 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-60.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc64b…516dbacked Yes3c3,851$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.92130%0 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d7a…276fbacked Yes3c3,833$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005014%7 W · 43 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-17.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes15c3,808$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5903721.6%8 W · 29 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-17%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc427…6f4dbacked Yes17c3,693$612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6125745.6%26 W · 31 L+7.9wins+0.14per pick32cpaid+44%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1168…f3e3backed Yes5c3,639$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes13c3,521$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.3119829.3%58 W · 140 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick25cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3cb…ef82backed Yes9c3,499$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.694022.5%9 W · 31 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-20.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf374…ce1abacked Yes11c3,220$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.21225%3 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-52.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe786…9d92backed No79c3,197$2,536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$660.87475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes18c3,182$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$580.3320823.1%48 W · 160 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes8c3,112$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.3636626.8%98 W · 268 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe000…cbb1backed Yes17c3,069$526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526.388441.7%35 W · 49 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-17.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdcdd…73a5backed Yes3c3,067$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002025%5 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-29.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes11c3,045$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.1448630.5%148 W · 338 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x853c…bd03backed No70c3,034$2,124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$910.1113441.8%56 W · 78 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1604…ff0ebacked Yes25c3,000$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7503917.9%7 W · 32 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-52%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ad3…a2b6backed Yes8c3,000$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24030%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x55fd…5086backed Yes1c2,868$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5224.5%1 W · 21 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick6cpaid+37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x347b…c9bcbacked Yes3c2,750$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.598933.7%30 W · 59 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+47.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xced1…280ebacked Yes7c2,647$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.87560%3 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.29per pick31cpaid+54.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8698…cd08backed No68c2,598$1,766 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$831.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47f5…934dbacked Yes22c2,500$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5503834.2%13 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5bd…ceaabacked Yes3c2,477$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.1221537.7%81 W · 134 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick39cpaid+24.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x187e…3acfbacked Yes2c2,460$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6060%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84c6…0c95backed Yes23c2,452$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$574.91921.1%4 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-49.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e49…f1afbacked Yes24c2,447$598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$597.9422927.1%62 W · 167 L-12.8wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-43%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0330…eb8fbacked Yes26c2,362$614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$613.85639.3%22 W · 34 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x292a…e42fbacked Yes15c2,324$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.964615.2%7 W · 39 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa97e…24ffbacked Yes26c2,260$577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5778224.4%20 W · 62 L+8.3wins+0.10per pick14cpaid+64%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x00a1…df06backed Yes2c2,206$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.07333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick18cpaid-29.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a89…30f5backed No70c2,200$1,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$670580%4 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick72cpaid+10.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc844…f8b9backed Yes11c2,192$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.8240%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb04a…acfcbacked Yes12c2,180$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.0629027.9%81 W · 209 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaabd…0992backed Yes18c2,170$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400580%4 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.35per pick45cpaid+117.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf23b…edebbacked Yes7c2,156$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Yes8c2,156$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.9717839.9%71 W · 107 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.