Middle East · resolved market
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b1435f47a09615867ade05d314485b7603924199ba0982cf28678b88717b520
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,551,322
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,461,981
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,551,322 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 630 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 19c | 87,359$16,723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,723.49 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 14c | 36,255$5,164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,163.54 | 215 | 31.2%67 W · 148 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 3c | 27,624$829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$828.87 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6e…8b97backed Yes | 1c | 19,898$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 11c | 19,432$2,210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,209.62 | 36 | 0%0 W · 36 L | -5.2wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked Yes | 2c | 18,969$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.41 | 166 | 38.6%64 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b2…a321backed Yes | 25c | 18,801$4,674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,674.03 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e86…8727backed Yes | 23c | 18,443$4,304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,303.95 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 26c | 16,608$4,385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,384.86 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 12c | 16,470$2,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,041.51 | 170 | 18.2%31 W · 139 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 24c | 16,228$3,945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,944.52 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa022…77f8backed Yes | 5c | 16,164$756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$756.49 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd742…79e4backed Yes | 19c | 15,521$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb881…58fabacked Yes | 13c | 13,672$1,737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,737.38 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.22per pick | 17cpaid | +107.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…dd19backed Yes | 4c | 13,482$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48ed…33bebacked Yes | 21c | 12,980$2,737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,737.03 | 60 | 8.3%5 W · 55 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b82…7a36backed No | 73c | 12,379$8,989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,389.65 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7525…cde1backed Yes | 8c | 12,172$924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$923.93 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05e2…6e12backed No | 76c | 12,146$9,235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,910.65 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb809…b13cbacked Yes | 9c | 11,331$1,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,012 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked Yes | 1c | 10,865$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.19 | 161 | 25.5%41 W · 120 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 80c | 10,452$8,327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,124.45 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 2c | 10,283$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.35 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aef…7143backed Yes | 35c | 10,235$3,571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,570.67 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +4.5wins | +0.56per pick | 32cpaid | +217.9%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed No | 75c | 10,000$7,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,500 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4042…ddfcbacked Yes | 18c | 9,680$1,709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,708.81 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | +97.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…ba97backed Yes | 15c | 9,505$1,399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,398.64 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c54…5840backed Yes | 15c | 9,162$1,342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,342 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 29cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07cb…867fbacked Yes | 3c | 8,934$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 4c | 8,920$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.17 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 17c | 8,418$1,425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,425.03 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 15c | 8,295$1,283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,283 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…b753backed Yes | 10c | 7,847$752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$751.94 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +845.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes | 19c | 7,772$1,471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,471.48 | 126 | 34.9%44 W · 82 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7408…db0dbacked Yes | 6c | 7,667$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +4.4wins | +0.48per pick | 18cpaid | +425.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed No | 70c | 7,631$5,328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,303.07 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -8.3wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c7…0e95backed Yes | 2c | 7,548$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef3…16dbbacked Yes | 12c | 7,033$859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$859.46 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b99…1dd2backed Yes | 29c | 6,986$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 7c | 6,728$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.23 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 6,691$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.72 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f62…e744backed No | 78c | 6,254$4,883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,370.71 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -9.6wins | -0.32per pick | 62cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x8bbe…b9dcbacked No | 72c | 6,000$4,330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,670 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -4.8wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf74e…dda4backed Yes | 31c | 6,000$1,854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,854.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38fe…4c18backed Yes | 4c | 5,119$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.79 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75b9…8006backed Yes | 9c | 5,060$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 4c | 4,968$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.92 | 124 | 5.6%7 W · 117 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96ef…5523backed No | 71c | 4,896$3,474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,422.16 | 118 | 42.4%50 W · 68 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf041…dde5backed No | 78c | 4,870$3,781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,089.23 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +93.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5f…11c5backed Yes | 20c | 4,856$956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$956 | 143 | 25.9%37 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec80…2cd7backed Yes | 21c | 4,794$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 7cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e84…ef69backed Yes | 2c | 4,577$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.13 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 5c | 4,535$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.88 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06ac…79ecbacked No | 70c | 4,526$3,163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,362.95 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a5…5f3cbacked Yes | 17c | 4,509$775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$775.07 | 52 | 19.2%10 W · 42 L | -12.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1e34…b86fbacked No | 74c | 4,415$3,273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,142.41 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 5c | 4,312$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.86 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5060…a780backed Yes | 28c | 4,215$1,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,180 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…321ebacked Yes | 6c | 4,198$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.49 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 0c | 4,049$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x233b…1f2cbacked Yes | 5c | 4,026$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 102 | 40.2%41 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Yes | 4c | 3,886$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.91 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 57c | 3,861$2,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,660.6 | 212 | 59.9%127 W · 85 L | +21.8wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6103…f2d9backed Yes | 3c | 3,853$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc64b…516dbacked Yes | 3c | 3,851$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.92 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d7a…276fbacked Yes | 3c | 3,833$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 50 | 14%7 W · 43 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes | 15c | 3,808$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…6f4dbacked Yes | 17c | 3,693$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +7.9wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +44%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1168…f3e3backed Yes | 5c | 3,639$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 13c | 3,521$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.31 | 198 | 29.3%58 W · 140 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3cb…ef82backed Yes | 9c | 3,499$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.69 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf374…ce1abacked Yes | 11c | 3,220$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.2 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe786…9d92backed No | 79c | 3,197$2,536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660.87 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 18c | 3,182$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.33 | 208 | 23.1%48 W · 160 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 8c | 3,112$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.36 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe000…cbb1backed Yes | 17c | 3,069$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.38 | 84 | 41.7%35 W · 49 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcdd…73a5backed Yes | 3c | 3,067$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 11c | 3,045$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.14 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed No | 70c | 3,034$2,124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$910.11 | 134 | 41.8%56 W · 78 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1604…ff0ebacked Yes | 25c | 3,000$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -52%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad3…a2b6backed Yes | 8c | 3,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55fd…5086backed Yes | 1c | 2,868$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked Yes | 3c | 2,750$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.59 | 89 | 33.7%30 W · 59 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xced1…280ebacked Yes | 7c | 2,647$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.87 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 31cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8698…cd08backed No | 68c | 2,598$1,766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$831.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47f5…934dbacked Yes | 22c | 2,500$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5bd…ceaabacked Yes | 3c | 2,477$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.12 | 215 | 37.7%81 W · 134 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x187e…3acfbacked Yes | 2c | 2,460$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84c6…0c95backed Yes | 23c | 2,452$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.9 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e49…f1afbacked Yes | 24c | 2,447$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.94 | 229 | 27.1%62 W · 167 L | -12.8wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -43%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0330…eb8fbacked Yes | 26c | 2,362$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.8 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x292a…e42fbacked Yes | 15c | 2,324$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.96 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…24ffbacked Yes | 26c | 2,260$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577 | 82 | 24.4%20 W · 62 L | +8.3wins | +0.10per pick | 14cpaid | +64%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x00a1…df06backed Yes | 2c | 2,206$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a89…30f5backed No | 70c | 2,200$1,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc844…f8b9backed Yes | 11c | 2,192$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.82 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb04a…acfcbacked Yes | 12c | 2,180$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.06 | 290 | 27.9%81 W · 209 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaabd…0992backed Yes | 18c | 2,170$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +117.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf23b…edebbacked Yes | 7c | 2,156$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 8c | 2,156$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.97 | 178 | 39.9%71 W · 107 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.