TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xa97e…24ff

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
170
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Middle East, grading 59 out of 100 (+0.08 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 59 out of 100; worst AI at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 15, 2026, EDT8224.4%20 W · 62 L+8.3wins+0.10per pick14cpaid+64%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
Middle East — the 82 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$69.23
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.96
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+244.8%+$71
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$246Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+2,810.9%+$6,926.81
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$147Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$146.95
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.4
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$344Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+93%+$320.36
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$550Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+481.8%+$2,650
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$1,599Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,599
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.2
Will Kuwait strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.08
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.64
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$310Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$310
Will the US conduct a cyberattack on Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$481Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$480.91
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$577Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$577
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$1,171Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,170.57
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$46
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$279Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$278.96
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$845Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$845
US forces enter Iran by March 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$676Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$676.23
US forces enter Iran by March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$55
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+985.6%+$317.76
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+1,011.1%+$1,011.11
Showing 25 of 82 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 29, 2026, EDT3013.3%4 W · 26 L-0.1wins0.00per pick14cpaid+31.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Commodities — the 30 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT+376.2%+$150.48
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$504Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+355.9%+$1,795.29
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$297Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$297.27
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$287Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$287.27
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$82.52
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$61.28
Will gas hit (Low) $3.05 by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.15
Will gas hit (Low) $3.00 by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.95
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$458Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+1,648.3%+$7,550.68
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$122Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+1,159.6%+$1,415.64
Will gas hit (High) $4.00 by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$149.94
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$992Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$992.07
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$450Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$449.69
Will 45 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$27
Will gas hit (High) $3.75 by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$1,340Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,340.29
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$176Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$175.8
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$242Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$242
Will gas hit (High) $3.50 by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$282Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$282.33
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$59
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$338Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$338.09
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $75 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$251Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$250.99
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $70 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$15.24
Will Gold close between $4300 and $4400 at the end of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$40.51
Will Gold close between $4200 and $4300 at the end of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$101.14
Showing 25 of 30 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT120%0 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
AI — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$54.84
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$55
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$165Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$165
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$95
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$105.23
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.21
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$389Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$389.13
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$67.2
Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$18.4
Grok 4.20 released by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$17
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$15.09
All 12 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1040%4 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick26cpaid+27.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$93.76
Another US strike on Venezuela by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$17
Another US strike on Venezuela by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$22
Another US strike on Venezuela by January 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$14.9
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship by January 9, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Maduro in U.S. custody by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$211Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+421.3%+$889
Maduro mugshot released by Monday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$13
Maduro leaves Venezuela by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+257.1%+$93.6
US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+84.3%+$18.3
US x Venezuela military engagement by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+115.7%+$53.64
All 10 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1020%2 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-24.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$153Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$153.14
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$72.2
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$274Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$274.41
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$117Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$183
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+400%+$400
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$299Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$299.4
Nuclear weapon detonation by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$32
Nuclear weapon detonation by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$22
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$15.3
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$94.86
All 10 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT70%0 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT60%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Stocks — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.43per pick7cpaid+444.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 12, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+35.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Mar 9, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 March 2-8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.57
Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$113Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$113.09
All 2 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$180
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.