Middle East · resolved market
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a200d7d560169d60dc82cd16bb14c16f36f029fdf609dcb92d06a554f9f0fe1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,162,925
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,462,957
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,162,925 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,498 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes | 8c | 324,066$25,845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,844.98 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +73%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 9c | 187,485$17,447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,447.28 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 20c | 132,936$26,329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,329.42 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 11c | 103,044$11,326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,325.64 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 6c | 69,647$4,344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,343.62 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…321ebacked Yes | 8c | 65,764$5,524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,523.77 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa81e…03dcbacked Yes | 30c | 64,995$19,816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,816.05 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3541…462ebacked Yes | 8c | 62,846$5,307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,307.45 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a3…8510backed No | 70c | 58,917$41,079 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,837.75 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45fb…aad0backed Yes | 9c | 50,057$4,421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,421.24 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +116.8%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3dea…e49fbacked Yes | 8c | 48,700$4,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,027.72 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…4597backed Yes | 13c | 47,303$6,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,340.4 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +18.8wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +128.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 7c | 44,206$2,959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,959.18 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed Yes | 25c | 41,233$10,263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,262.93 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 19c | 40,770$7,815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,814.87 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…7489backed Yes | 12c | 40,445$4,780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,780.35 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e84…ef69backed Yes | 16c | 37,781$6,166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,165.79 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52f5…19dabacked Yes | 25c | 35,568$8,847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,846.71 | 122 | 45.9%56 W · 66 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 16c | 35,313$5,542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,541.58 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedc2…ad9fbacked Yes | 8c | 32,309$2,623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,622.67 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +10.2wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8489…c184backed No | 79c | 31,640$25,031 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,608.31 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec1f…d325backed Yes | 14c | 31,218$4,342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,341.71 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 2c | 29,690$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.27 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd352…4ad6backed Yes | 11c | 27,304$3,053 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,053.49 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.19per pick | 43cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 15c | 22,528$3,395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,394.69 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa42d…2e9abacked Yes | 24c | 21,563$5,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,088.61 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e0…167ebacked No | 74c | 21,081$15,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,381.25 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92bb…1afbbacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 11c | 19,430$2,195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,195.41 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x907d…20c4backed Yes | 0c | 18,887$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ba…4372backed Yes | 22c | 17,730$3,866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,866.46 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked Yes | 7c | 17,579$1,256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,255.76 | 165 | 53.9%89 W · 76 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 12c | 15,545$1,886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,886.21 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf19…6402backed Yes | 20c | 15,244$3,049 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,048.71 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 72c | 15,090$10,916 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,174.4 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 19c | 14,282$2,727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,726.88 | 203 | 36.9%75 W · 128 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x302f…a568backed Yes | 2c | 12,864$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.59 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +21%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe6…2440backed No | 77c | 12,592$9,732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,859.23 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 6c | 12,145$744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$744.43 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddf4…2680backed Yes | 30c | 11,678$3,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,500 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc021…1fa8backed Yes | 9c | 10,753$977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$977.26 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52f9…e1c7backed Yes | 23c | 10,609$2,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,400 | 121 | 52.9%64 W · 57 L | +12.9wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdf70…5e92backed Yes | 20c | 10,323$2,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,044.71 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 30c | 10,000$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed No | 62c | 9,607$5,957 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,649.98 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f98…b140backed Yes | 10c | 9,581$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d0…bdf2backed No | 71c | 9,480$6,685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,795.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x188e…70d8backed No | 75c | 9,273$6,955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,318.25 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 17c | 9,204$1,606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,605.63 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed Yes | 13c | 9,001$1,147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,147.13 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33d…a537backed Yes | 33c | 8,718$2,878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,878.4 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00e5…df91backed Yes | 25c | 8,715$2,157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,157 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb04a…acfcbacked Yes | 12c | 8,573$1,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,063.61 | 290 | 27.9%81 W · 209 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked Yes | 40c | 8,452$3,365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,365.23 | 166 | 38.6%64 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f26…bac3backed Yes | 14c | 8,051$1,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,095.05 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -38%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 8,016$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.96 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5666…c630backed Yes | 11c | 8,000$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$879.99 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03be…f6d9backed No | 77c | 7,931$6,135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,795.76 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…fdecbacked No | 78c | 7,847$6,156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,691.06 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -4.7wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa218…94cdbacked No | 65c | 7,693$5,029 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,664 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf15…2aa9backed Yes | 3c | 7,608$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.51 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe074…10e2backed No | 80c | 7,539$6,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,539.28 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +139.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 6c | 7,476$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.38 | 124 | 5.6%7 W · 117 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 9c | 7,139$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674.14 | 178 | 39.9%71 W · 107 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaef…54e9backed Yes | 25c | 7,120$1,781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,781.28 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef7…21bebacked Yes | 28c | 7,026$1,980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,979.98 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5943…2ef2backed Yes | 18c | 7,000$1,264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,264.1 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +8.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb492…1df3backed No | 63c | 6,998$4,377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,620.94 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25b6…dbbabacked Yes | 8c | 6,964$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.27 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +202.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x17ad…a8dabacked Yes | 23c | 6,897$1,575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,574.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0592…70e7backed No | 65c | 6,809$4,398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,411.34 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…c6d5backed Yes | 3c | 6,481$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.81 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +237.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x408b…8f1bbacked Yes | 4c | 6,119$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.92 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +4.2wins | +0.47per pick | 20cpaid | +299.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 27c | 6,000$1,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,619.9 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc19d…865ebacked Yes | 14c | 6,000$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860 | 179 | 34.6%62 W · 117 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e4…aabfbacked No | 74c | 5,985$4,429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,556.25 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81e0…2c3bbacked Yes | 13c | 5,929$745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$744.59 | 92 | 22.8%21 W · 71 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d15…c454backed No | 71c | 5,792$4,113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,679.8 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7707…3873backed No | 70c | 5,729$3,986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,743.22 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a8…00c7backed Yes | 7c | 5,469$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.31 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb261…7211backed Yes | 5c | 5,336$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.07 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4504…6f71backed Yes | 21c | 5,288$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x521d…8482backed Yes | 10c | 5,280$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x187e…3acfbacked Yes | 10c | 5,219$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f80…2184backed No | 74c | 5,187$3,838 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,348.7 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb52f…3c2dbacked Yes | 19c | 5,121$951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$951.18 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd747…8667backed Yes | 18c | 5,003$901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900.54 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…fdb3backed No | 71c | 5,000$3,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,450 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2638…2ca8backed Yes | 10c | 4,977$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f49…bf8dbacked No | 60c | 4,822$2,893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,928.76 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 6c | 4,808$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.69 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 20c | 4,615$916 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$915.53 | 198 | 29.3%58 W · 140 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f3…0f9cbacked Yes | 25c | 4,591$1,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,128.93 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | +169.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff91…ab3abacked Yes | 33c | 4,552$1,508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,508.31 | 166 | 50%83 W · 83 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3e…633cbacked Yes | 16c | 4,504$719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.2 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes | 22c | 4,500$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 167 | 39.5%66 W · 101 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked No | 60c | 4,444$2,666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,777.59 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0004…a4d7backed Yes | 9c | 4,433$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c09…3fd2backed Yes | 41c | 4,391$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800.03 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8a…7699backed Yes | 41c | 4,356$1,786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,785.61 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?this page
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?Yes won
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?Yes won
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?Yes won
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?Yes won
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?Yes won
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15?No won
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 7?No won
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.