Middle East · resolved market
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x136f5a0c27a62cf9a2e40a4f48425e43d61b9571a53a2529372c0065f3218a73
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,872,192
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,243,088
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,872,192 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,231 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xccc1…889dbacked No | 0c | 400,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9648…6825backed Yes | 68c | 397,166$269,848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127,318.53 | 148 | 21.6%32 W · 116 L | -24.5wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe885…38efbacked No | 24c | 231,575$56,542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56,542.39 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3541…462ebacked No | 33c | 225,046$75,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75,100.76 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6480…8dc5backed No | 0c | 200,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 35 | 0%0 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1796…f068backed No | 0c | 176,000$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a18…c5c4backed No | 13c | 139,754$17,686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,686 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9e…3a0ebacked Yes | 62c | 123,450$76,079 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47,371.19 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4692…3a3abacked No | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…129abacked Yes | 65c | 88,332$57,689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,642.49 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked Yes | 76c | 86,195$65,716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,479.94 | 166 | 38.6%64 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cce…5c11backed No | 42c | 81,775$34,051 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34,050.61 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7401…87c5backed No | 34c | 59,551$20,397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,397.13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -59%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7158…5439backed No | 41c | 56,061$22,973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,973.22 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -4.5wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…8145backed No | 18c | 52,279$9,186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,186.26 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 1c | 44,968$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.36 | 218 | 31.2%68 W · 150 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57cd…82acbacked No | 32c | 40,554$12,884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,884.05 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +7.2wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +136.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x81dd…5f71backed No | 27c | 39,505$10,732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,732.24 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 39cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd624…a0f8backed Yes | 63c | 39,401$24,961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,440 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52a8…c5edbacked No | 40c | 38,987$15,566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,565.63 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf17…97d1backed No | 0c | 37,732$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.73 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | -7.5wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe18c…3b7ebacked No | 1c | 31,100$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed No | 4c | 30,305$1,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,070.8 | 197 | 6.6%13 W · 184 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb16…d3a3backed No | 0c | 28,673$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -51%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x174b…5a55backed No | 13c | 28,482$3,819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,818.98 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | -7.8wins | -0.18per pick | 41cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9e89…9a0bbacked No | 0c | 27,500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3443…4ddbbacked No | 14c | 27,410$3,820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,819.79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked No | 0c | 26,400$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.57 | 88 | 17%15 W · 73 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe382…5af5backed No | 6c | 26,300$1,565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,564.7 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x801d…d8e0backed Yes | 73c | 25,500$18,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,910 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ebb…5da4backed No | 0c | 25,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d15…c454backed No | 28c | 24,472$6,776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,775.7 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6799…62cdbacked No | 7c | 24,236$1,752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,751.66 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed No | 11c | 24,121$2,682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,682.48 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4c…cb39backed No | 13c | 22,458$2,917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,917.16 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e40…f622backed No | 3c | 22,078$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee7…17b0backed No | 32c | 20,707$6,699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,698.88 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x15d4…bd30backed No | 1c | 20,300$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed No | 38c | 19,557$7,354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,354.08 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -8.3wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8a…e62abacked No | 39c | 19,337$7,531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,530.71 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x959e…83a1backed No | 8c | 18,636$1,467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,467.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1865…9c7abacked No | 27c | 18,048$4,852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,852.3 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +250.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 69c | 17,652$12,187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,465.37 | 292 | 54.8%160 W · 132 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e89…5593backed Yes | 74c | 17,513$13,042 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,470.38 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a3…1807backed Yes | 70c | 16,320$11,354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,966.02 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1b…6cc0backed Yes | 74c | 16,038$11,935 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,102.95 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +191%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…9c23backed Yes | 65c | 15,841$10,272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,568.27 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…a156backed No | 30c | 15,760$4,673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,673.42 | 155 | 41.9%65 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac5…cf2ebacked No | 23c | 15,323$3,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,599.78 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d2…fb68backed No | 0c | 15,191$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd631…eed4backed No | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f1…71a3backed No | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 5c | 14,843$723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$722.57 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f52…07abbacked No | 44c | 14,242$6,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,299.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8072…0ef3backed Yes | 59c | 14,200$8,391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,809.06 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed No | 5c | 13,859$741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$741.33 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…88dfbacked Yes | 73c | 13,742$10,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,741.61 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b14…d0b1backed No | 21c | 13,689$2,832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,832 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdec7…f536backed No | 39c | 12,863$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…9b5cbacked Yes | 75c | 12,032$9,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,032.29 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcda1…d9adbacked No | 34c | 11,850$4,084 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,084.44 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -5.4wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fe…f135backed No | 13c | 11,467$1,452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,451.98 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b71…8044backed No | 26c | 11,200$2,940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,940 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -5.0wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b3…baf8backed No | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4247…91c4backed No | 0c | 10,848$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +62%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc58…9ee1backed No | 0c | 10,500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67d6…245ebacked No | 28c | 10,467$2,902 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,902.28 | 79 | 29.1%23 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a1…775bbacked No | 32c | 10,424$3,355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,355 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa092…11e3backed Yes | 58c | 10,404$6,023 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,381.08 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -4.5wins | -0.13per pick | 64cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked No | 18c | 10,155$1,832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,831.84 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaefb…a0efbacked Yes | 77c | 10,116$7,789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,326.72 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe54b…aa14backed Yes | 69c | 10,092$6,952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,140.38 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +3.9wins | +0.17per pick | 62cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ca…1705backed Yes | 78c | 10,034$7,780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,254.11 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbc…5196backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c9…e4b3backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +4.9wins | +0.31per pick | 26cpaid | +98.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xade3…3b44backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf7c…30b8backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…4cfbbacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd0…d6aabacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32af…b42fbacked No | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa766…dc85backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35a8…6004backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd8…915ebacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc212…58b8backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10b3…40d4backed Yes | 72c | 10,000$7,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,799.99 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80c5…333dbacked Yes | 72c | 9,745$7,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,744.81 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +5.7wins | +0.20per pick | 35cpaid | +113.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9a…fdc7backed No | 34c | 9,742$3,316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,316.08 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…dbcabacked Yes | 72c | 9,436$6,768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,667.86 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +92.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x388d…7242backed No | 11c | 9,293$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd0…0022backed No | 22c | 9,131$2,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,008.89 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52f9…e1c7backed No | 11c | 8,993$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 121 | 52.9%64 W · 57 L | +12.9wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc484…4cd5backed No | 22c | 8,912$1,961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,960.63 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa022…77f8backed No | 4c | 8,753$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.83 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2f…b226backed Yes | 79c | 8,488$6,705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,782.31 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 74c | 8,200$6,066 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,134 | 119 | 44.5%53 W · 66 L | -17.8wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc73f…991ebacked No | 8c | 7,589$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf58…cdcbbacked No | 17c | 7,484$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec2…d084backed No | 30c | 7,330$2,215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,215.38 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56eb…076abacked Yes | 70c | 7,242$5,051 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,190.95 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17bb…fb43backed No | 18c | 7,090$1,295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,294.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?this page
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?Yes won
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?Yes won
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?Yes won
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?Yes won
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15?No won
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?No won
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 7?No won
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.