Middle East · resolved market
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23408daff185f6c89d91bd279ce97142c573454277d72ae882a9d9fd1ae79af4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,954,778
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,632,256
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,954,778 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 826 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x554b…74ccbacked No | 4c | 119,826$5,329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,328.7 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49b3…6486backed No | 16c | 118,279$18,696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,696.11 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -4.5wins | -0.30per pick | 43cpaid | -82%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked No | 1c | 117,400$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.9 | 88 | 17%15 W · 73 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4104…3852backed No | 2c | 111,054$1,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,998.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed87…788fbacked No | 2c | 100,032$2,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,359.76 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3541…462ebacked No | 7c | 94,621$6,958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,957.96 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe885…38efbacked No | 13c | 89,293$11,487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,487.11 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 2c | 63,964$1,155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,154.66 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25d7…c2bfbacked No | 3c | 57,501$1,777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,776.62 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10fc…9606backed No | 2c | 37,000$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2462…a777backed No | 4c | 35,376$1,409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,409.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe382…5af5backed No | 4c | 33,587$1,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,260 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7401…87c5backed No | 17c | 33,315$5,786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,786.42 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -59%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d72…cca4backed No | 19c | 30,800$5,910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,909.99 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 2c | 27,310$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.53 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 5c | 25,421$1,274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,274.22 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x174b…5a55backed No | 7c | 23,956$1,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,649.81 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | -7.8wins | -0.18per pick | 41cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked No | 6c | 23,480$1,423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,423.47 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f11…be8dbacked No | 5c | 23,200$1,091 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,091.27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…5116backed No | 4c | 22,300$814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$814.42 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed No | 3c | 20,993$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.5 | 197 | 6.6%13 W · 184 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 2c | 20,708$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.33 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b34…294cbacked No | 1c | 20,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57cd…82acbacked No | 14c | 19,932$2,706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,705.89 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +7.2wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +136.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f7…73bbbacked No | 2c | 19,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.32per pick | 39cpaid | +43%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2202…8787backed No | 19c | 17,289$3,226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,226.16 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5739…5f1abacked No | 7c | 16,777$1,174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,174.39 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b68…285ebacked No | 7c | 16,627$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe085…5474backed No | 12c | 15,958$1,885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,884.71 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +123.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd624…a0f8backed No | 8c | 15,508$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed No | 15c | 14,913$2,237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,236.74 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -8.3wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…7640backed No | 6c | 14,600$894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$894.2 | 206 | 17%35 W · 171 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5835…3beebacked No | 17c | 14,290$2,383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,382.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…1c6cbacked No | 14c | 13,465$1,865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,865.27 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79e5…dcc9backed No | 3c | 13,351$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.89 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2a…b0f0backed No | 7c | 12,845$923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$922.92 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcda1…d9adbacked No | 15c | 12,495$1,833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,833.12 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -5.4wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca7…8195backed No | 6c | 12,139$755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$754.71 | 60 | 13.3%8 W · 52 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed No | 3c | 11,703$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.39 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92a6…19bbbacked No | 6c | 11,696$733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$732.86 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8df9…468cbacked No | 1c | 11,608$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 142 | 27.5%39 W · 103 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8072…0ef3backed No | 8c | 11,025$858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$857.74 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed No | 13c | 10,949$1,411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,411.45 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x433f…add6backed No | 5c | 10,846$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.55 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac5…cf2ebacked No | 7c | 10,823$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780.21 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfafa…65fcbacked No | 5c | 10,375$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c07…ec50backed No | 20c | 10,165$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c5…40f3backed No | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a81…d324backed No | 1c | 10,000$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.77 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa613…1bf9backed No | 5c | 10,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…405cbacked No | 3c | 10,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4938…a5debacked No | 17c | 10,000$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,699.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 5c | 9,098$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.19 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb50…cab4backed No | 4c | 9,062$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…8145backed No | 9c | 9,012$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.34 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe72d…6424backed No | 5c | 9,000$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 10c | 8,993$883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$883.15 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdec7…f536backed No | 19c | 8,866$1,684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,684.48 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b4…1f6ebacked No | 8c | 8,388$656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656.38 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf186…6b94backed No | 6c | 8,333$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0724…3238backed No | 5c | 7,983$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.15 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…a156backed No | 12c | 7,807$956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$956.45 | 155 | 41.9%65 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc21e…e6d3backed No | 2c | 7,753$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.84 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3096…58a3backed No | 10c | 7,649$767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$766.57 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…53f7backed No | 4c | 7,326$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.75 | 71 | 36.6%26 W · 45 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c6f…8b32backed No | 2c | 7,322$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed No | 3c | 7,116$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.73 | 203 | 6.4%13 W · 190 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1044…51bfbacked No | 6c | 7,065$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.34 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a1…775bbacked No | 17c | 6,998$1,155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,155 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed No | 10c | 6,950$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663 | 162 | 31.5%51 W · 111 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ba…2c15backed No | 7c | 6,935$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked No | 3c | 6,908$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.12 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c35…feebbacked No | 4c | 6,900$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.6 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 5cpaid | +108.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1442…5a8fbacked No | 17c | 6,815$1,164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,164.14 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -4.5wins | -0.17per pick | 43cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb12a…cb82backed No | 9c | 6,721$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.96 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 6,706$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.97 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 8c | 6,703$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.98 | 218 | 31.2%68 W · 150 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x417d…9de4backed No | 6c | 6,370$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.4 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5240…d378backed No | 19c | 6,299$1,199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,198.89 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a6…0a76backed No | 3c | 6,027$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.57 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f11…18e3backed No | 6c | 6,000$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x493c…953ebacked No | 4c | 5,900$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4234…e8bdbacked No | 17c | 5,882$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf039…b6b5backed No | 16c | 5,625$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed No | 6c | 5,500$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.31 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba2f…25e6backed No | 2c | 5,493$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.07 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67d6…245ebacked No | 20c | 5,460$1,091 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,090.68 | 79 | 29.1%23 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50b2…a5d2backed No | 15c | 5,354$801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$801.42 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd042…7198backed No | 11c | 5,271$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.18 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d38…dd7abacked No | 2c | 5,007$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed No | 17c | 5,000$834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$834.31 | 154 | 36.4%56 W · 98 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x278d…09a0backed No | 18c | 5,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -46%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88c9…7e55backed No | 5c | 5,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 35cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…c855backed No | 3c | 5,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 106 | 39.6%42 W · 64 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe840…b084backed No | 3c | 4,899$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b04…9f95backed No | 14c | 4,892$687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686.94 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x019f…1152backed No | 4c | 4,874$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.77 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +68%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…b701backed No | 6c | 4,837$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf23c…8a6abacked No | 3c | 4,727$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x416e…a47fbacked No | 5c | 4,724$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.45 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +85.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?this page
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?Yes won
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?Yes won
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?Yes won
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?Yes won
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15?No won
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?No won
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 7?No won
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.