TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x3c35…feeb

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
94
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Middle East, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 54 out of 100; worst Crypto Milestones at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Feb 19, 2026, EST290%0 W · 29 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 29 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 14 to February 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST-100%-$35
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST-100%-$14.8
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$15.28
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$11.54
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$15.74
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$16
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$16.3
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$15.47
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$12.8
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$16.58
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$14
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$83.37
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 14 to February 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$27.68
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 14 to February 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$28.91
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from February 14 to February 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$13.47
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 14 to February 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$18.19
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 14 to February 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$69.94
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 14 to February 16, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$92.7
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 14 to February 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$94.54
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$38.35
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$96.9
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$19.79
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$57.1
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$33
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$36
Showing 25 of 29 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved May 4, 2026, EDT270%0 W · 27 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 27 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 April 27-May 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.5
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.5
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.07
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.43
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.5
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 April 20-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.07
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 April 20-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$71.46
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 April 6-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$208Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$208.2
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 April 6-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$57.93
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 March 30-April 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.57
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 March 30-April 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.95
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 March 30-April 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.74
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 March 2-8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$102.97
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 March 2-8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$221Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$220.8
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$318Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$317.89
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$28.5
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 February 9-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$33
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 February 9-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$12.33
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 February 9-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$134Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$134.21
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 February 9-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 February 9-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$45
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 February 9-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$10.58
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 February 9-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$279Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$279.46
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$13.2
Showing 25 of 27 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 21, 2026, EDT1513.3%2 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick5cpaid+108.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+2,400%+$336
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$306Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$305.6
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.29
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$64.52
Will Khamenei leave Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$28.49
Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$89.7
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$136Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+523.4%+$709.45
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$109.88
US x Iran meeting by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$20.1
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$61.36
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$378Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$378.46
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$155Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$154.7
Will the US strike Colombia next?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$28.46
Will the US strike Somalia next?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$10.99
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 12, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$43
All 15 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick3cpaid+27.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT60%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 14, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 12, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved May 3, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Pistons vs. Magic backed Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT+233.3%+$209.99
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Apr 29, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$36
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$72.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved May 3, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
NHL Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Canadiens vs. Lightning backed Lightning · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$96
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.