Us Politics · resolved market
Will the DHS shutdown end after April 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xadead580ed2e2961c9a7a3cb9db78daf96faf94bdc00a82ec217cfd6bf341bf0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $426,395
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $414,262
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $426,395 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 423 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 75c | 32,016$23,868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,868.39 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xced2…1076backed Yes | 73c | 31,419$22,866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,865.61 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaab9…a08dbacked No | 39c | 26,374$10,284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,089.85 | 109 | 50.5%55 W · 54 L | +12.8wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked No | 12c | 17,149$2,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,054.1 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +7.5wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +210.2%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 46c | 12,764$5,885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,879.18 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f88…cd62backed Yes | 73c | 10,452$7,588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,588.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 34c | 9,478$3,177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,177.16 | 151 | 24.5%37 W · 114 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -42%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 39c | 8,150$3,219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,218.8 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 67c | 7,990$5,318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,318.14 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed No | 8c | 7,362$611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,750.85 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +105.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe036…616cbacked No | 8c | 6,292$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,770.88 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +5.3wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +92%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 72c | 5,844$4,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,229.78 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc336…02abbacked No | 10c | 5,517$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,979.72 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 4cpaid | +371.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No | 30c | 5,150$1,556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,594.25 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee7…fb27backed Yes | 10c | 3,940$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed Yes | 72c | 3,220$2,313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,313.39 | 99 | 58.6%58 W · 41 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a80…cfdcbacked Yes | 39c | 3,076$1,197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,197.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa664…f849backed Yes | 42c | 2,811$1,192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,191.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa278…cfbdbacked No | 63c | 2,700$1,696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,003.57 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 46c | 2,500$1,162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,338.21 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 17c | 2,460$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,030.96 | 53 | 22.6%12 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf9…158ebacked Yes | 50c | 2,325$1,161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,160.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe864…ce58backed No | 46c | 2,305$1,067 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,238.42 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 55cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked No | 51c | 2,110$1,073 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,036.69 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 17c | 2,028$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,691.41 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 10cpaid | +111.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc65f…420ebacked Yes | 43c | 2,005$854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$853.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd056…f1bebacked Yes | 63c | 2,002$1,262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,262.44 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29e7…fbbfbacked Yes | 50c | 1,831$910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$909.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +143.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a5…534cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,771$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c04…97bdbacked Yes | 57c | 1,761$1,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,009.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 9c | 1,753$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.96 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x472a…2dadbacked Yes | 38c | 1,670$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +113%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd667…dbcbbacked Yes | 56c | 1,600$898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$898.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6447…8075backed Yes | 27c | 1,535$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.53 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -21%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 43c | 1,458$626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.1 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x444c…9d2ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,400$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 6cpaid | +106.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e64…c134backed Yes | 24c | 1,368$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f6…da6bbacked Yes | 31c | 1,190$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4b…3121backed Yes | 43c | 1,150$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab58…f788backed No | 64c | 1,140$729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc131…f290backed No | 9c | 1,116$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,017.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 13cpaid | +280.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c35…feebbacked No | 11c | 1,108$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$983.74 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 3cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc67…8f05backed Yes | 79c | 1,101$869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$869 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e26…2020backed Yes | 26c | 1,100$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc35f…f0e6backed Yes | 80c | 1,088$868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$868.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 33c | 1,081$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.4 | 93 | 1.1%1 W · 92 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -94.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x542a…a81bbacked No | 10c | 1,071$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$963.99 | 100 | 7%7 W · 93 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed Yes | 23c | 1,008$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.18 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a24…2605backed Yes | 55c | 989.76$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.71 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…7f5fbacked Yes | 56c | 979.73$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb9…6f7abacked No | 67c | 942.66$636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa476…653ebacked Yes | 42c | 900.12$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…80c0backed No | 49c | 840.34$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e1…4443backed No | 21c | 819$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +366.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebc…84aebacked Yes | 43c | 800$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5074…fcddbacked Yes | 56c | 800$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 61c | 781.23$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.21 | 115 | 29.6%34 W · 81 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41b6…8f2bbacked Yes | 76c | 759.65$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.27 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 34c | 754.17$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.85 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1033…c765backed Yes | 26c | 752.15$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.42 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…331abacked No | 8c | 745.89$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$683.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.92per pick | 8cpaid | +1,099.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4825…f3a3backed Yes | 67c | 744.06$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a31…54eabacked Yes | 43c | 730$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…d649backed Yes | 34c | 726.31$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa81d…7447backed Yes | 38c | 716.39$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86a0…a974backed No | 63c | 706.96$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.49 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c5…6593backed Yes | 2c | 705.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40e4…8171backed Yes | 74c | 700$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1547…d066backed Yes | 35c | 700$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.8 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7960…f1c3backed Yes | 74c | 695.99$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Yes | 57c | 683.79$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67d3…96cbbacked No | 46c | 675.12$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +119.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 21c | 671.49$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.82 | 101 | 35.6%36 W · 65 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2167…9062backed Yes | 61c | 652.74$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5861…d9a6backed No | 38c | 651.05$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 21c | 614.15$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.57 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 71c | 611.5$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.1 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ca…4ac0backed No | 70c | 600$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 76cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7491…ada0backed No | 69c | 600$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 75c | 579.39$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.23 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 28c | 579.24$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.19 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b39…bc0dbacked Yes | 40c | 562.22$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.69 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 40cpaid | -84.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes | 71c | 547.1$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.19 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7748…58d7backed No | 40c | 544.94$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.37 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b13…67debacked Yes | 8c | 544.34$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfded…c2efbacked Yes | 6c | 538.79$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +91.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 14c | 538.64$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.49 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f85…2b60backed No | 16c | 530.41$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7978…8998backed No | 57c | 500$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a3…2f84backed Yes | 56c | 500$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…e56cbacked Yes | 8c | 490.41$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa774…005fbacked Yes | 56c | 488.7$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.04 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c4…c44ebacked Yes | 42c | 476.19$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3464…8112backed No | 46c | 470.22$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.82 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +86%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 41c | 468.54$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.26 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef02…4f7ebacked No | 42c | 449$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.49 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 3c | 432.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed No | 46c | 422.77$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.5 | 187 | 25.1%47 W · 140 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 64c | 417.8$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +91%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 43c | 417.42$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.81 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.24per pick | 39cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the DHS shutdown end after April 30, 2026?this page
- Will the DHS shutdown end before April 1, 2026?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown end between April 1-4, 2026?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown end between April 13-16, 2026?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown end between April 17-20, 2026?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown end between April 21-24, 2026?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown end between April 25-28, 2026?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown end between April 29-30, 2026?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown end between April 5-8, 2026?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown end between April 9-12, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.