TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will the DHS shutdown end between April 17-20, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$431,924
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$428,985

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $431,924 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 167 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6a71…9353backed Yes7c4,398$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1c3…6271backed Yes7c3,222$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39bd…bdb9backed Yes7c2,980$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1722…36ffbacked Yes7c2,910$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45f4…7b1abacked Yes7c2,725$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes5c2,600$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.034314%6 W · 37 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86bd…f036backed Yes7c2,591$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x702c…bd94backed Yes7c2,547$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a38…3f74backed Yes7c2,506$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2630…5c17backed Yes7c2,485$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.4120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes4c2,447$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.353414.7%5 W · 29 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-61.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0d2…b14cbacked Yes7c2,373$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7544…42d1backed Yes7c2,347$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0086…67acbacked Yes7c2,343$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd493…683abacked Yes7c2,269$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae8c…762dbacked Yes7c2,268$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7632…7e50backed Yes7c2,241$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb48c…db08backed Yes7c2,153$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb885…29ecbacked Yes7c2,139$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.0120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbf4d…3f89backed Yes7c2,116$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96df…7d08backed Yes7c2,115$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfa7…3e8fbacked Yes7c2,105$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28fa…37f2backed Yes7c2,105$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa7d2…fa42backed Yes7c2,066$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53b6…970abacked Yes7c2,040$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.9220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8089…2f38backed Yes7c2,016$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb135…a9c1backed Yes7c1,944$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.9120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdd65…69e9backed Yes7c1,940$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6222…b18ebacked Yes7c1,896$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa72c…4c2ebacked Yes7c1,788$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a0c…b74abacked Yes7c1,786$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60fc…acc7backed Yes7c1,771$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.5120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b09…763dbacked Yes7c1,756$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x896f…ea43backed Yes7c1,748$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a0c…1948backed Yes6c1,736$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf29…45fbbacked Yes7c1,693$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e2a…54a4backed Yes6c1,661$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x338b…abfebacked Yes7c1,621$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdf3…c3d9backed Yes8c1,551$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x491a…57a8backed Yes7c1,551$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6ba…e0a2backed Yes7c1,524$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1335…4768backed Yes7c1,521$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd21…d46abacked Yes7c1,517$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadf7…13eabacked Yes7c1,493$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a2b…98b6backed Yes7c1,468$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a01…c28dbacked Yes7c1,456$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb6c…8b5fbacked Yes8c1,444$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.7420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2f41…9b95backed Yes7c1,430$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcea0…3f21backed Yes7c1,409$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30b0…d3fabacked Yes7c1,402$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.9420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x65cd…9096backed Yes7c1,377$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8079…b366backed Yes7c1,356$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6632…c0d6backed Yes7c1,324$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.6820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x672c…f9e2backed Yes7c1,323$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa255…246cbacked Yes7c1,310$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f68…f6e4backed Yes7c1,286$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5218…12c7backed Yes7c1,274$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc199…6cf2backed Yes7c1,264$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bab…ea3bbacked Yes8c1,232$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d83…311ebacked Yes7c1,214$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.1220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d81…032fbacked Yes7c1,197$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba10…0f67backed Yes7c1,156$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes4c1,137$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.211428.5%12 W · 130 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xde2c…1bb3backed Yes7c1,128$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa167…5380backed Yes7c1,126$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedfc…d34dbacked Yes8c1,124$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0392…0146backed Yes7c1,119$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcd6…7089backed Yes7c1,109$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6655…4e8abacked Yes7c1,025$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71af…6b3dbacked Yes16c1,019$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf0e…de47backed Yes7c1,016$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc75e…83ffbacked Yes7c996$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d3d…6df6backed Yes7c931$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4081…1032backed Yes7c900$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8fd…5f03backed Yes7c871$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.4920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00d9…ed16backed Yes7c852$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcda…c464backed Yes6c844$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.0220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e55…6296backed Yes7c839$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5cc5…59dbbacked Yes7c836$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10c6…73f0backed Yes7c834$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5413…f661backed Yes7c828$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd3c…28ffbacked Yes7c826$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b2e…4b71backed Yes7c825$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf94…b59ebacked Yes7c819$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95e9…6faabacked Yes7c814$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.9820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xcc93…cd26backed Yes7c811$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe566…db6cbacked Yes7c806$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.4220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb60a…7bbabacked Yes7c791$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7341…3fc2backed Yes7c783$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f59…1456backed Yes7c780$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb64b…a88cbacked Yes7c776$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b15…26efbacked Yes6c776$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1605…f0fbbacked Yes7c767$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xde1e…12d9backed Yes7c764$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3f3…bb19backed Yes6c747.34$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.35633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-55.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd704…469abacked Yes7c742$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x755e…5116backed Yes6c742$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7477…812dbacked Yes7c741$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b82…83acbacked Yes7c739$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09e0…8f41backed Yes6c739$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.