TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will the DHS shutdown end between April 5-8, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$101,504
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$85,940

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $101,504 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5334…d7b1backed Yes1c15,200$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaab9…a08dbacked Yes3c8,999$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.8810950.5%55 W · 54 L+12.8wins+0.12per pick39cpaid+30.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf155…76bdbacked No58c4,701$2,719 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,981.952100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+51.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe036…616cbacked Yes39c3,746$1,476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,475.943060%18 W · 12 L+5.3wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+92%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe4b3…c131backed Yes8c2,970$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.4250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+58.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36f9…5445backed Yes0c2,203$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes33c1,503$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.345322.6%12 W · 41 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-28.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes18c1,500$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.312634.6%9 W · 17 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick27cpaid+15.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c1,386$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.271,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes17c1,314$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.764314%6 W · 37 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes3c898.89$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6769634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes4c800$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.8414.9%2 W · 39 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-34.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb88…4c4cbacked Yes2c719.79$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2320%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe92…c15bbacked Yes11c669.36$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.52850%4 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+33.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes10c645.88$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.493414.7%5 W · 29 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-61.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes2c620.47$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.43736.8%5 W · 68 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick3cpaid+36.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes6c559.08$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.52476.4%3 W · 44 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-69.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x92e5…efeebacked Yes42c524.58$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.51855.6%10 W · 8 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+37.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x37b3…062cbacked Yes45c473.07$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.8120%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes3c405.04$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.45787.7%6 W · 72 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes4c400$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3110%0 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc914…c458backed Yes35c400$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14030%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x471e…62f8backed Yes33c400$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1fc…42a0backed Yes20c398.25$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick24cpaid+4.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes19c394$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.7711010%11 W · 99 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-32%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1826…690dbacked Yes20c350$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.6520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf939…ba18backed Yes37c347.52$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa664…f849backed No54c342.49$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.26450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed Yes31c332.4$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.321414.3%2 W · 12 L-3.4wins-0.24per pick39cpaid-13.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb752…bb90backed No62c307.23$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe915…3492backed Yes48c300$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c54…2d86backed Yes25c273.66$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.5825%2 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick21cpaid+15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed No79c250$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.522347.5%106 W · 117 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b39…bc0dbacked No79c232.13$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.75812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.27per pick40cpaid-84.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Yes18c230.71$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.4920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No71c228.99$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.317656.6%43 W · 33 L+5.5wins+0.07per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2a24…2605backed No64c211.29$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.36450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-29.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bf5…606bbacked No64c200$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.453100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+65.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbdf4…59b4backed Yes40c200$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.91921.1%4 W · 15 L-3.4wins-0.18per pick39cpaid-66.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x981a…e585backed No62c200$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3535…2183backed No62c200$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8217…5379backed Yes46c172.04$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-46.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xab6a…735abacked No51c168.83$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.56475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.33per pick42cpaid+119.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1c14…0869backed Yes27c168.46$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.565942.4%25 W · 34 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes33c149.92$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.924447.7%21 W · 23 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+91%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7776…491bbacked No55c141.67$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.372100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+62.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9bbd…6e72backed Yes30c131.58$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.322250%11 W · 11 L+3.4wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+33.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xeae9…523fbacked No79c130$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.43475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick71cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e27…a266backed No80c112.65$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.65650%3 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-33.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x27e4…7000backed Yes39c111.08$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes17c109.62$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.953545.7%16 W · 19 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd61b…10d7backed Yes45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9e7…666abacked No63c100$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x10f8…d1ecbacked No55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.62100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+58.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7740…a03cbacked Yes19c100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.95425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+139.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes42c98.66$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.3210135.6%36 W · 65 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6447…8075backed No66c84.72$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.13757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-21%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes21c80$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.032832.1%9 W · 19 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-45.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb98a…0550backed Yes33c74.28$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-67.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x876b…bda1backed No53c70$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick53cpaid+90.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x398b…fad8backed Yes22c69.02$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed No77c67.76$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.523100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+52.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x06f0…ad99backed Yes39c64.48$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2530%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed No64c60$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.541735.3%6 W · 11 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick24cpaid+50.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1746…515fbacked No70c60$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184100%4 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+106.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9c49…1d27backed Yes44c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-47.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4946…9c5ebacked Yes35c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f6f…d78bbacked Yes21c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2be…66b0backed Yes44c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223036.7%11 W · 19 L-3.0wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-30.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6643…0109backed Yes40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid+0.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7748…58d7backed Yes46c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.751127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.15per pick43cpaid-38.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1c0b…55e1backed Yes45c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d19…f498backed Yes27c49.94$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.430%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0db…d1d5backed No61c49.18$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.182100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+182%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbd91…6262backed Yes22c46.16$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.21100%0 W · 10 L-2.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1073…d8babacked Yes33c46.08$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.35333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-53.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4f0…b9f2backed No66c45.3$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.3250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-24.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97ea…3363backed No76c43.89$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.39560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+12.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ab3…07bcbacked Yes25c42.06$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.45110%0 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x66c1…9733backed Yes45c41.67$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03d0…d647backed Yes33c39.79$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.212231.8%7 W · 15 L-2.8wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-34.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8907…a996backed No62c30.8$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.59366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2aac…dfadbacked No79c25.28$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.286549.2%32 W · 33 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22b8…18dfbacked No79c18.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.99333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-57.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc174…b1aabacked No79c17$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.622100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8566…5b98backed No80c15.56$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.