Us Politics · resolved market
Will the DHS shutdown end between April 29-30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde41745762fd150d1576a21c19be96f7b1bc9f95e6b2c464c655ad248ef0ac3d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $142,332
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $142,317
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $142,332 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xced2…1076backed Yes | 54c | 13,323$7,228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,095.54 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4f…831ebacked No | 54c | 10,785$5,790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,790 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x542a…a81bbacked Yes | 10c | 10,008$1,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,994.52 | 100 | 7%7 W · 93 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 20c | 7,970$1,575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,394.62 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 6c | 5,844$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,492.49 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 51c | 5,830$2,995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,994.7 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed No | 75c | 5,773$4,337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,337.26 | 99 | 58.6%58 W · 41 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 7c | 5,152$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,805.01 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +105.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked Yes | 42c | 3,158$1,331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,827.36 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab9…a08dbacked Yes | 23c | 3,117$718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,399.07 | 109 | 50.5%55 W · 54 L | +12.8wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 39c | 3,074$1,211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,862.68 | 151 | 24.5%37 W · 114 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -42%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f88…cd62backed No | 61c | 2,449$1,504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,503.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 7c | 2,130$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,982.13 | 53 | 22.6%12 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes | 7c | 1,661$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,540.98 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +7.5wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +210.2%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 12c | 1,612$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.89 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd42…eacfbacked No | 56c | 1,321$741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc336…02abbacked Yes | 8c | 1,000$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$924.97 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 4cpaid | +371.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 76c | 984.37$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.27 | 187 | 25.1%47 W · 140 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 10c | 980.67$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27a1…adc6backed Yes | 6c | 901.26$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$847.97 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +322.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked No | 19c | 888.03$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.25 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a51…3591backed No | 62c | 806.74$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37ef…a37abacked Yes | 9c | 721.24$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$658.48 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed No | 5c | 685.22$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.95 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed No | 31c | 681.25$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 15c | 611.38$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.1 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 20c | 592.93$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff26…5bffbacked No | 7c | 589.12$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf8…f060backed Yes | 2c | 576$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.98per pick | 2cpaid | +4,900%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 10c | 533.25$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.34 | 101 | 35.6%36 W · 65 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 49c | 500.26$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.62 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +155.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 481.93$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.42 | 78 | 7.7%6 W · 72 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 6c | 476.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 70c | 431.62$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 5c | 420.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8b…05bdbacked No | 58c | 411.09$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b13…67debacked No | 8c | 345.51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92e5…efeebacked Yes | 77c | 277$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.2 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x244b…b4fdbacked Yes | 33c | 171.94$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.94 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +471.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6877…de8abacked No | 59c | 140$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8e…21b7backed Yes | 11c | 130$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 6cpaid | +376.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…d826backed No | 72c | 128.1$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.98 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 12c | 106.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Yes | 10c | 104.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.65 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…a03cbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +139.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b6…3a92backed No | 18c | 99.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14b2…ac16backed No | 33c | 95.45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 56c | 95.15$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.76 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe98a…e5b2backed No | 37c | 94.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecb2…a30cbacked No | 27c | 93.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 61c | 89.96$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.95 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 25c | 57.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.31 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60e2…9bd7backed Yes | 21c | 52.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +370.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -48%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 23c | 49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.49 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e47…5024backed Yes | 29c | 38.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.47 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +254.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7d…8ee2backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 72c | 26.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 74cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the DHS shutdown end between April 29-30, 2026?this page
- Will the DHS shutdown end after April 30, 2026?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown end before April 1, 2026?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown end between April 1-4, 2026?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown end between April 13-16, 2026?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown end between April 17-20, 2026?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown end between April 21-24, 2026?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown end between April 25-28, 2026?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown end between April 5-8, 2026?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown end between April 9-12, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.