Us Politics · resolved market
Will the DHS shutdown end between April 1-4, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb88cdbe9d2e911a3e11e27d607ab930fa95f8836b127a2b08154ed0c23b9d568
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,213
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,075
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,213 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 3c | 6,268$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.4 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +16.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d19…f498backed Yes | 3c | 3,710$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe036…616cbacked Yes | 13c | 3,483$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.72 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +5.3wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +92%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 6c | 3,303$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.89 | 110 | 10%11 W · 99 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -32%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab9…a08dbacked Yes | 9c | 2,785$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.35 | 109 | 50.5%55 W · 54 L | +12.8wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes | 9c | 2,412$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.57 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +7.5wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +210.2%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xfb23…db7ebacked Yes | 6c | 2,316$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e52…0e3cbacked Yes | 5c | 2,030$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 9c | 1,157$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.96 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 1,082$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.2 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,010$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 2c | 733.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 73 | 6.8%5 W · 68 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 3cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 3c | 694.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 78 | 7.7%6 W · 72 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 10c | 600.92$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.03 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 4c | 600$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 41 | 4.9%2 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a24…2605backed No | 79c | 521.25$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.91 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06f0…ad99backed Yes | 5c | 490.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.09 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 3c | 489.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 474.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 134 | 3.7%5 W · 129 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6447…8075backed No | 77c | 450$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.75 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -21%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked Yes | 25c | 396.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.35 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9907…ca66backed No | 70c | 389.84$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +95.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…0869backed Yes | 24c | 343.98$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.11 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a6…7159backed Yes | 17c | 303.02$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.73 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6c…7171backed No | 77c | 199.81$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.66 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e0…5e15backed Yes | 34c | 158.37$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6661…4344backed Yes | 16c | 125.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 94 | 3.2%3 W · 91 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed Yes | 40c | 81.66$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.36 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +88.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 17c | 79.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 72c | 70.57$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.78 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c4…d5dabacked Yes | 17c | 69.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x127d…58b6backed Yes | 36c | 68.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 79c | 58.33$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 53 | 22.6%12 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd58c…8954backed No | 79c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1746…515fbacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 79c | 45.2$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the DHS shutdown end between April 1-4, 2026?this page
- Will the DHS shutdown end after April 30, 2026?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown end before April 1, 2026?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown end between April 13-16, 2026?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown end between April 17-20, 2026?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown end between April 21-24, 2026?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown end between April 25-28, 2026?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown end between April 29-30, 2026?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown end between April 5-8, 2026?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown end between April 9-12, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.