Us Politics · resolved market
Will the DHS shutdown end between April 13-16, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb79a83e41a4192ffda48b9996c6677ccfafbbe49325a577369cf81f94f46baf0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,610
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,781
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,610 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 22c | 2,990$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.8 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb84d…ad8abacked Yes | 5c | 2,734$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaab9…a08dbacked Yes | 20c | 2,667$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.63 | 109 | 50.5%55 W · 54 L | +12.8wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0459…1572backed Yes | 25c | 2,043$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 12c | 1,900$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.62 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa664…f849backed No | 74c | 1,548$1,141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 22c | 1,433$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.02 | 101 | 35.6%36 W · 65 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c54…2d86backed Yes | 10c | 1,237$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.43 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 16c | 1,222$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.09 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked No | 71c | 1,192$843 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.03 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +7.5wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +210.2%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 16c | 1,179$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.29 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5082…049dbacked Yes | 27c | 1,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.86 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa278…cfbdbacked Yes | 23c | 770.81$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4260…5e65backed Yes | 17c | 736.21$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.87 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd58c…8954backed No | 76c | 570.45$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.06 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…b17ebacked No | 76c | 500$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.64 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -6.3wins | -0.37per pick | 73cpaid | -53%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 15c | 489.94$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.3 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfded…c2efbacked Yes | 15c | 427.89$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.43 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +91.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 6c | 408.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 142 | 8.5%12 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 23c | 342.72$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.06 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 3c | 320.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 12cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…0869backed Yes | 18c | 311.28$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.28 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d50…b75cbacked Yes | 28c | 300$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 17c | 294.69$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.1 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7832…ca08backed Yes | 22c | 288.51$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed No | 78c | 272$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f07…3f04backed Yes | 29c | 250$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Yes | 14c | 233.39$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.53 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc097…5deabacked Yes | 27c | 232.38$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf21d…bcd4backed Yes | 22c | 232.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe356…63bcbacked Yes | 22c | 224.17$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe92…c15bbacked Yes | 10c | 216.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 17c | 172.82$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.92 | 53 | 22.6%12 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf64…ad49backed No | 77c | 159.96$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.79 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86a0…a974backed No | 76c | 154$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 18c | 150$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 72 | 8.3%6 W · 66 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c39…6abcbacked No | 77c | 150$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x814a…ab7abacked Yes | 19c | 150$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1826…690dbacked Yes | 38c | 150$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaddc…c226backed Yes | 19c | 147$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2e…e5f2backed Yes | 24c | 135$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b3…4d69backed Yes | 22c | 134.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05ae…c88bbacked Yes | 30c | 132.12$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…18dfbacked Yes | 23c | 130.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeae9…523fbacked No | 78c | 130$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.73 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 16c | 127.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked Yes | 28c | 113.04$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.39 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7501…9edbbacked No | 80c | 109.43$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…ee92backed Yes | 29c | 109.32$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7748…58d7backed Yes | 22c | 106.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7270…add3backed Yes | 15c | 101$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…d52dbacked No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba3…a665backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13dd…b2b7backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x738f…ba83backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x491b…9aa2backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab2…b321backed Yes | 27c | 98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e45…1efbbacked Yes | 28c | 97.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…9e36backed No | 78c | 89.15$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06c1…f1f2backed Yes | 15c | 89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…0f0bbacked No | 77c | 88.42$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 77cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4283…c927backed Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd521…de5abacked Yes | 25c | 78.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89f0…1e62backed No | 78c | 77.18$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fed…a1f9backed Yes | 22c | 74.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6020…e249backed No | 76c | 74.1$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02d5…2fecbacked No | 77c | 71.3$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa57e…fc85backed Yes | 24c | 70.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ca05backed Yes | 36c | 67.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5864…76b9backed Yes | 23c | 67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f3…bb19backed No | 75c | 63.86$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1e…cf5fbacked Yes | 27c | 52.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fa…1f4fbacked Yes | 27c | 52.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 77c | 51$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…4916backed Yes | 26c | 50.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee21…3721backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59d6…1c6bbacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5e…332ebacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbad3…7715backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc458…ccb7backed No | 67c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf958…689ebacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8e…4cacbacked No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec2…9e1bbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x084f…551ebacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3be0…9836backed No | 78c | 49.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 69c | 46.98$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe737…060dbacked No | 71c | 42.02$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9269…5731backed Yes | 29c | 35.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x617a…94babacked No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x819f…1931backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.25per pick | 61cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa55…d1cebacked No | 70c | 28.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfffa…00c8backed No | 76c | 26.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ffc…5d90backed No | 72c | 24.34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6c…7171backed No | 73c | 21.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xded6…81ebbacked No | 74c | 20.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe758…2e61backed No | 73c | 14.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +90.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the DHS shutdown end between April 13-16, 2026?this page
- Will the DHS shutdown end after April 30, 2026?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown end before April 1, 2026?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown end between April 1-4, 2026?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown end between April 17-20, 2026?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown end between April 21-24, 2026?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown end between April 25-28, 2026?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown end between April 29-30, 2026?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown end between April 5-8, 2026?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown end between April 9-12, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.