TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will the DHS shutdown end between April 13-16, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$68,610
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$61,781

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,610 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4e5c…d892backed Yes22c2,990$666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$665.81435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-44.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb84d…ad8abacked Yes5c2,734$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaab9…a08dbacked Yes20c2,667$543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542.6310950.5%55 W · 54 L+12.8wins+0.12per pick39cpaid+30.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0459…1572backed Yes25c2,043$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes12c1,900$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.624314%6 W · 37 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa664…f849backed No74c1,548$1,141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes22c1,433$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.0210135.6%36 W · 65 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c54…2d86backed Yes10c1,237$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.43825%2 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick21cpaid+15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes16c1,222$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.093414.7%5 W · 29 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-61.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40cf…d21dbacked No71c1,192$843 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.032965.5%19 W · 10 L+7.5wins+0.26per pick40cpaid+210.2%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes16c1,179$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.29476.4%3 W · 44 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-69.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5082…049dbacked Yes27c1,000$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.86425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-66.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa278…cfbdbacked Yes23c770.81$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.3450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4260…5e65backed Yes17c736.21$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.87757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick42cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd58c…8954backed No76c570.45$435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.061241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-40.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x897a…b17ebacked No76c500$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.641735.3%6 W · 11 L-6.3wins-0.37per pick73cpaid-53%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes15c489.94$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.31,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfded…c2efbacked Yes15c427.89$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.43666.7%4 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.33per pick34cpaid+91.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes6c408.95$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.341428.5%12 W · 130 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes23c342.72$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.066010%6 W · 54 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick9cpaid-30.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes3c320.21$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.773423.5%8 W · 26 L+3.8wins+0.11per pick12cpaid+28.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1c14…0869backed Yes18c311.28$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.285942.4%25 W · 34 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d50…b75cbacked Yes28c300$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes17c294.69$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.196319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7832…ca08backed Yes22c288.51$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.16333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-54.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed No78c272$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.7418425%46 W · 138 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-37.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f07…3f04backed Yes29c250$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9eae…98a5backed Yes14c233.39$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.53650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-22.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc097…5deabacked Yes27c232.38$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.6620%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf21d…bcd4backed Yes22c232.19$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.1320%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe356…63bcbacked Yes22c224.17$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.22250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe92…c15bbacked Yes10c216.59$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.81850%4 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+33.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes17c172.82$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.925322.6%12 W · 41 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-28.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf64…ad49backed No77c159.96$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.79742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-32.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x86a0…a974backed No76c154$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.1560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick45cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes18c150$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.27728.3%6 W · 66 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-33.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c39…6abcbacked No77c150$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.5475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x814a…ab7abacked Yes19c150$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.95560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick38cpaid+50.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1826…690dbacked Yes38c150$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.1520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaddc…c226backed Yes19c147$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3720%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e2e…e5f2backed Yes24c135$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5b3…4d69backed Yes22c134.39$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05ae…c88bbacked Yes30c132.12$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.9720%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x22b8…18dfbacked Yes23c130.43$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-57.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeae9…523fbacked No78c130$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.73475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick71cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked Yes16c127.75$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.87825%2 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick15cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb55…ff0fbacked Yes28c113.04$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3960%0 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x7501…9edbbacked No80c109.43$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.26250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-37.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0da5…ee92backed Yes29c109.32$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.23250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7748…58d7backed Yes22c106.86$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.271127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.15per pick43cpaid-38.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7270…add3backed Yes15c101$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1530%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd721…d52dbacked No77c100$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.3450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ba3…a665backed No77c100$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13dd…b2b7backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+66.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x738f…ba83backed No77c100$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.751136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-46.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x491b…9aa2backed Yes18c100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-19.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ab2…b321backed Yes27c98$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.4620%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e45…1efbbacked Yes28c97.5$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7930%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x272d…9e36backed No78c89.15$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.7366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+33.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x06c1…f1f2backed Yes15c89$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.35333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+85.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x437b…0f0bbacked No77c88.42$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.6366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick77cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4283…c927backed Yes13c80$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd521…de5abacked Yes25c78.94$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89f0…1e62backed No78c77.18$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.2450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-36.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fed…a1f9backed Yes22c74.8$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.39366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6020…e249backed No76c74.1$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02d5…2fecbacked No77c71.3$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa57e…fc85backed Yes24c70.23$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7830%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x983a…ca05backed Yes36c67.73$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2830%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5864…76b9backed Yes23c67$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.58714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick11cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3f3…bb19backed No75c63.86$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.96633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-55.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f1e…cf5fbacked Yes27c52.94$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.420%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd8fa…1f4fbacked Yes27c52.79$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.04250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed No77c51$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.931942.1%8 W · 11 L+2.5wins+0.13per pick29cpaid+4.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xab41…4916backed Yes26c50.88$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.43250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-17.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xee21…3721backed Yes23c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.530%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x59d6…1c6bbacked Yes27c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b5e…332ebacked Yes28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-71.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbad3…7715backed Yes33c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.530%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc458…ccb7backed No67c50$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf958…689ebacked Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e8e…4cacbacked No76c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.15633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-57.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ec2…9e1bbacked Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x084f…551ebacked Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3be0…9836backed No78c49.99$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-30.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked No69c46.98$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.49560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe737…060dbacked No71c42.02$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.02966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+23.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9269…5731backed Yes29c35.22$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.21837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x617a…94babacked No74c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x819f…1931backed No76c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.08785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.25per pick61cpaid+23.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfa55…d1cebacked No70c28.37$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+41.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfffa…00c8backed No76c26.14$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.22100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+38.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ffc…5d90backed No72c24.34$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.911100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b6c…7171backed No73c21.41$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.782100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xded6…81ebbacked No74c20.06$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.22450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe758…2e61backed No73c14.5$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.913100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+90.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.