TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x7501…9edb

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
45
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: Champions League, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Champions League at 55 out of 100; worst Fifa International at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT1266.7%8 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick73cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$118Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$118
Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$4.12
Pakistan military action against Kabul by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$7
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$123Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$122.8
Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+48.5%+$25.2
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$119Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$31.5
Military action against Iran ends by April 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$94.79
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$30
Will USD reach 1.6M Iranian rials by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$6.9
Will USD reach 1.6M Iranian rials by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$25
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$561Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$561.25
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST+31.6%+$15
All 12 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 3, 2026, EDT966.7%6 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick73cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$118Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$118
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+25.1%+$9.02
Will the Democrats (D) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$146Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT+26%+$37.9
Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by less than 5%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.7
Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by at least 5%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.4
Will Alfonso López Chau and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+30%+$11.55
Will Green Party win a mayorship in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT+37.7%+$13.7
Will CD win the third most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+34.1%+$19.07
Will Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) win at least one seat in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+28.6%+$8.14
All 9 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 28, 2026, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+60.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Commodities — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick70cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Lol Inactivelast resolved Apr 23, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick61cpaid-55.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Lol — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 6, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+157.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Mar 9, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-30.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-37.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Apr 14, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Rio Group Abacked Vitality · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$360Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$140
Counter-Strike: RED Canids vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - IEM Rio Group Abacked Gentle Mates · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$158Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$157.5
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
France vs. Spain: Team to Advancebacked France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Apr 25, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump drops Powell investigation before Warsh is confirmed?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$7.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Melissa Bean be the Democratic Nominee for IL-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$112Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+33.9%+$38
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Apr 6, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 180m and 190m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT+28%+$7.27
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.43
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Kirk Cousins play for Las Vegas Raiders in 2026-27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.3
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.