TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,500 by end of June?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$61,569
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$57,921

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,569 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 136 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9aea…b686backed Yes68c4,564$3,108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,455.322450%12 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+15.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b00…d78bbacked No36c3,818$1,393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,392.82060%12 W · 8 L-0.1wins0.00per pick60cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No5c2,696$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.041,0249.1%93 W · 931 L-25.7wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-55.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No45c2,416$1,093 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,093.4493040.3%375 W · 555 L-67.5wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-31.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xaa81…aaf7backed No1c2,015$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3423323.6%55 W · 178 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-29.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x72a0…c059backed No22c1,284$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.986346%29 W · 34 L+7.0wins+0.11per pick35cpaid-2.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x74b4…6beabacked Yes59c845.49$502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.133666.7%24 W · 12 L+4.9wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+21.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8191…3868backed No25c779.9$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.241850%9 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No36c601.57$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.0327322%60 W · 213 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8b3…4484backed No35c566.63$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.536848.5%33 W · 35 L+5.2wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+29.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2f63…f247backed No3c536.19$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.098650%43 W · 43 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa53b…4021backed No34c532.02$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.7129447.3%139 W · 155 L+34.3wins+0.12per pick36cpaid+30.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x4047…7293backed No50c508.66$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.426651.5%34 W · 32 L+6.8wins+0.10per pick41cpaid+18.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1d5f…634dbacked No33c500.66$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.593842.1%16 W · 22 L-7.3wins-0.19per pick61cpaid-37.1%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xce5e…3e6ebacked Yes55c499.99$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.99580%4 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.36per pick44cpaid+85.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeda5…e16dbacked No15c384.19$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.0612538.4%48 W · 77 L+11.5wins+0.09per pick29cpaid+28.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9b95…a426backed No34c383.32$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.25850%4 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No16c363.22$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.9926413.3%35 W · 229 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No20c318.93$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.0821228.8%61 W · 151 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x938e…2ee3backed Yes58c301.08$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.215536.4%20 W · 35 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3237…5658backed Yes58c300$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1261250%6 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-29.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdde4…7bfdbacked Yes77c299.99$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$703100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+68.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe617…f251backed Yes67c298.51$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.51977.8%7 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick73cpaid+8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x62e8…c7f6backed No34c294.12$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007444.6%33 W · 41 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-12.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e28…dec5backed No8c271.72$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4740%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd2d9…5653backed No10c262.29$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.861631.3%5 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-25.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed No51c246$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.2613131.3%41 W · 90 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No6c233.53$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141987.1%14 W · 184 L-10.4wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-69.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcb26…fca1backed No29c232.75$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.661266.7%8 W · 4 L+3.1wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+75.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x37ea…f395backed No5c226.59$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.92824.9%4 W · 78 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-68%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4bf5…b17fbacked Yes38c222.15$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.153342.4%14 W · 19 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-19.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x880d…adb6backed Yes77c205.36$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.55771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick69cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4eb6…5517backed No54c200$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-20.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf887…6b54backed Yes45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.26per pick60cpaid-35.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbd1e…8d24backed Yes70c200$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$603036.7%11 W · 19 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-37.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe9fd…69febacked Yes51c200$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.31per pick52cpaid+45.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe9f2…d642backed Yes59c200$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2f4…5228backed Yes58c200$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+23.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5226…8554backed No45c198.42$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.246267.7%42 W · 20 L+13.6wins+0.22per pick46cpaid+51.6%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0xf3ac…dbbabacked Yes67c193.13$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.08540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes60c186.43$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.5735334%120 W · 233 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed No43c180.47$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.345151%26 W · 25 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick45cpaid-11.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7d88…1695backed Yes56c180$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.4728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-56.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5485…ae4abacked No47c159.55$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.3320%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed Yes73c151.76$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.5312348.8%60 W · 63 L+8.5wins+0.07per pick42cpaid-3.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x30a0…a458backed No15c150$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.56529.2%19 W · 46 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+30.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x171b…cd92backed No35c143$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.0530%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3dc2…298ebacked No43c123.07$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.92560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe538…e2e1backed No30c116.31$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.3550%0 W · 5 L-2.6wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6cb9…f414backed No51c115.94$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.520%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes61c114.09$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.515446.8%72 W · 82 L+17.9wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+69.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x84c3…35d4backed Yes73c114$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.786933.3%23 W · 46 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd78a…9d89backed No44c113.64$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501050%5 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-15.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x71f1…9f7dbacked No18c113.15$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcfca…9722backed Yes70c111$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.3650%3 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x510b…da8dbacked No35c110.91$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.213339.4%13 W · 20 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-17.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes50c103.93$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.281,04534.6%362 W · 683 L-93.1wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-29.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x216d…a4e1backed No33c102.03$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.14850%4 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5b5…e85ebacked Yes57c100$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431060%6 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+54.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa72a…7825backed No53c100$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-21.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8853…6d22backed No53c100$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-29.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e67…8831backed Yes69c100$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+28.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5de3…8df2backed Yes61c100$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39825%2 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-59.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf9ac…806ebacked Yes70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306475%48 W · 16 L+7.6wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+16.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa095…6040backed No26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261127.3%3 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick19cpaid+48.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6dc4…6770backed No31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.854951%25 W · 24 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x82a3…c11abacked No16c100$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.553531.4%11 W · 24 L+4.3wins+0.12per pick19cpaid+152.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x478b…53d5backed No53c100$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5340%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8d5c…b756backed Yes57c100$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.16per pick47cpaid+38.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdbde…3dc9backed No55c100$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553060%18 W · 12 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+29.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd834…e011backed No28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281618.8%3 W · 13 L-4.7wins-0.29per pick48cpaid-65.8%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x6f02…0b2ebacked Yes71c100$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-43.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9308…0321backed No14c99.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1440%0 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x907c…23c1backed No42c88.75$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.287838.5%30 W · 48 L-8.0wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-28.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb0e6…6791backed No41c86.8$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.59333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick40cpaid+17.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d66…79cabacked Yes58c86.09$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.051747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+21.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes78c82$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.8716276.5%124 W · 38 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick73cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ac9…8d3fbacked Yes63c75.43$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.67837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-40.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x655c…1a00backed No53c75$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.754339.5%17 W · 26 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa0b8…65e8backed Yes56c73.64$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.4922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.24per pick46cpaid-58.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa5fb…7d82backed No29c72.41$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51f2…38efbacked No46c71.14$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.485724.6%14 W · 43 L-8.2wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-36.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x7748…58d7backed No44c71$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.242931%9 W · 20 L-3.0wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-30.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9db0…b4a2backed No44c68.18$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick66cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x991f…8f78backed No27c67.08$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9660…8bb6backed Yes69c66.11$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.491181.8%9 W · 2 L+2.9wins+0.26per pick56cpaid+60.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa99f…b306backed No48c63$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+29%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes59c60$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.48959.6%53 W · 36 L+7.5wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+12%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed Yes59c60$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.6979.3%9 W · 88 L-6.3wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-43.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed Yes64c60$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.67532%24 W · 51 L-11.1wins-0.15per pick47cpaid-31.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x7f19…bf1ebacked No35c57.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205343.4%23 W · 30 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x22eb…65a7backed No29c53.22$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.22333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff14…c6cabacked No38c53.08$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.8wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+52.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x86dd…1af2backed No27c52.63$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.955141.2%21 W · 30 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-26.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x576f…5254backed Yes59c50.85$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.853935.9%14 W · 25 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0081…eb50backed Yes57c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.5666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+35.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe9d9…5c41backed No43c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.550%0 W · 5 L-2.7wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc255…62f8backed No43c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.5wins-0.35per pick49cpaid-74%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa9bd…3d50backed Yes56c50$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.31per pick44cpaid+56.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x00a1…36c7backed Yes67c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.57100%7 W · 0 L+3.1wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+88.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.