TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,200 by end of June?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$36,404
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$37,242

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,404 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5a21…9318backed Yes2c1,897$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.99741.2%40 W · 57 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-10%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa8b3…4484backed No73c1,563$1,147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415.676848.5%33 W · 35 L+5.2wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+29.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes37c1,003$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.4393840.2%377 W · 561 L-69.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-31.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed No56c997.39$557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440.035151%26 W · 25 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick45cpaid-11.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c9a…553bbacked Yes22c833.15$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.127131%22 W · 49 L-10.0wins-0.14per pick45cpaid-46.3%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xa719…0f74backed Yes5c800$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404228.6%12 W · 30 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+84.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc1fd…ba6cbacked No74c782.01$582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.85366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick66cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb357…199bbacked Yes29c685.39$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200147.1%1 W · 13 L-2.2wins-0.16per pick23cpaid-84.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3e78…1ab9backed Yes32c639$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.481729.4%5 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-21%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37ea…f395backed Yes6c626.19$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.28824.9%4 W · 78 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-68%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72a0…c059backed Yes17c527.78$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.476346%29 W · 34 L+7.0wins+0.11per pick35cpaid-2.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x00ac…e915backed Yes5c515$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Yes53c420$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.614429.9%43 W · 101 L-10.5wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3ddf…5c37backed Yes4c400$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.31246.5%8 W · 116 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98dc…9949backed Yes23c380$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.4333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-45.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes35c351.08$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.8827322%60 W · 213 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd632…8afbbacked No69c300$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$933161.3%19 W · 12 L+4.3wins+0.14per pick47cpaid+9.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf418…b2ccbacked No73c293.01$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.013666.7%24 W · 12 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x07d1…8ffabacked Yes7c289.6$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1119923.1%46 W · 153 L+12.5wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+2.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes16c279.1$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.66707.1%5 W · 65 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-77.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xee9a…030bbacked No64c273.94$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.62366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick69cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes45c250.29$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.6735334%120 W · 233 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed Yes16c232.44$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.0234534.5%119 W · 226 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd78a…9d89backed No65c229.32$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.321050%5 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-15.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0c12…9a6bbacked Yes22c224.57$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.154020%8 W · 32 L-4.9wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-46.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xf72d…a2e0backed Yes5c220.69$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-46.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4bbe…2cf3backed No78c209.77$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.156233.9%21 W · 41 L-6.7wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-40%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes5c208.91$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.272934.1%12 W · 281 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-30.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb63f…793cbacked No63c200$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$741060%6 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+22.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x399b…35cdbacked Yes7c200$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143447.1%16 W · 18 L+4.3wins+0.13per pick35cpaid+36%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb965…01d8backed No63c200$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$741225%3 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-56.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0e0b…7990backed Yes50c198.37$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeae5…0720backed Yes41c193$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.571637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick40cpaid+4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9ef…966fbacked No65c186.31$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.76366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51f2…38efbacked Yes43c175.36$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$765724.6%14 W · 43 L-8.2wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-36.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xcfff…e7cdbacked Yes51c170.31$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.561323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-40.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b39…bc0dbacked No64c158$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.883839.5%15 W · 23 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes12c152$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.931,0309.2%95 W · 935 L-25.0wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-55.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa99f…b306backed Yes45c148.64$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.261747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+29%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x938e…2ee3backed Yes29c146.38$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.455536.4%20 W · 35 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d44…3bc0backed No70c143.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.082075%15 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+51.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4569…d9aebacked No65c140$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$493100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x74b4…6beabacked No54c118.26$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.913666.7%24 W · 12 L+4.9wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+21.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x576f…5254backed Yes22c108.69$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.913935.9%14 W · 25 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbade…5c92backed Yes52c100$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+43.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fd8…1de3backed Yes29c100$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291250%6 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8853…6d22backed No49c100$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-29.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x89c1…7380backed No63c100$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+57.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc158…8912backed Yes29c100$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3731…4bfabacked Yes29c100$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-48.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc18e…44e3backed No67c100$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d5c…b756backed Yes29c100$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.16per pick47cpaid+38.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9976…8b3dbacked Yes20c94.79$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.526431.3%20 W · 44 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-16.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes22c94$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6821228.8%61 W · 151 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac83…239cbacked Yes34c93.91$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.931050%5 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaad6…8b65backed Yes47c73.38$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.49633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.30per pick64cpaid-49.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x47c1…825fbacked Yes30c71.79$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.522010%2 W · 18 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-38.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes55c70.58$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.831,04834.5%362 W · 686 L-94.9wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-29.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed Yes30c66$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.85036%18 W · 32 L-0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe194…1cecbacked Yes53c63.83$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.831216.7%2 W · 10 L-3.7wins-0.31per pick48cpaid-63.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x919d…f748backed No47c63.83$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.8310551.4%54 W · 51 L+6.6wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No80c60$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.323846.6%111 W · 127 L+13.3wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+2.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4cea…0685backed Yes49c60$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+51.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes28c60$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.918637.6%70 W · 116 L-9.3wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-33.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2402…2bfcbacked Yes29c58.39$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.93540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-15.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3c4d…4829backed Yes50c54.8$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.583342.4%14 W · 19 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No59c52.94$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.668959.6%53 W · 36 L+7.5wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+12%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf6b9…a41ebacked Yes35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.22per pick44cpaid-67%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xaf92…7e3fbacked Yes35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.51450%7 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf53a…a93fbacked No78c47.53$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.69683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.32per pick52cpaid+73.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe6b9…d8e0backed No64c46.88$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.88875%6 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9db0…b4a2backed No64c46.88$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.88771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick66cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed Yes33c40.4$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.213131.3%41 W · 90 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb87…5742backed Yes61c40$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick47cpaid-37.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0585…1de9backed Yes33c40$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ac9…8d3fbacked No67c37.31$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.31837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-40.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbde…3dc9backed No43c37$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.093060%18 W · 12 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+29.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes57c37$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.093732.4%12 W · 25 L-3.9wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-4.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc13d…6928backed Yes41c36$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9345…3869backed No63c32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.841258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.17per pick41cpaid+6.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x907c…23c1backed No59c31.7$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.167838.5%30 W · 48 L-8.0wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-28.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x486e…6e5ebacked Yes32c31.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101040%4 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid+56.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc02…f89cbacked No54c21.96$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.1966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+13.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x272d…9e36backed No63c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.52630.8%8 W · 18 L-4.2wins-0.16per pick47cpaid-42.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x96dd…ff8ebacked Yes61c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f8f…7946backed Yes61c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick50cpaid-71.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xec41…2c24backed No68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.4683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick64cpaid+30.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfab9…a684backed No64c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.25100%5 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+60.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0beb…8cc9backed No63c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.4633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.29per pick63cpaid-44.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x22a4…13e5backed No68c17.5$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.62825%7 W · 21 L-6.6wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-50.6%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.