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Commodities · resolved market

Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,800 by end of June?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$104,010
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$85,829

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $104,010 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xddae…52c4backed Yes2c6,642$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x049b…5a12backed Yes3c5,159$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.3630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6818…32cbbacked Yes12c4,311$509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes2c3,893$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.962221.4%3 W · 219 L-0.4wins0.00per pick2cpaid+28.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01ff…3c75backed Yes7c3,643$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.222433.3%8 W · 16 L+2.9wins+0.12per pick21cpaid+93.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6fd2…32d5backed Yes4c3,477$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15150%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9fe…f135backed Yes4c3,391$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.51931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-19.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4712…0d69backed Yes1c2,369$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes1c2,146$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.0610242.2%43 W · 59 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-10.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37ea…f395backed Yes1c2,000$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.16824.9%4 W · 78 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-68%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e71…c117backed Yes9c1,856$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.991520%3 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+72.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca7d…f1f7backed Yes3c1,752$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.6930%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes7c1,625$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.211,0449.2%96 W · 948 L-27.2wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-55.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x42e1…7466backed Yes2c1,612$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes1c1,500$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212934.1%12 W · 281 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-30.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf66f…8e0cbacked No73c1,365$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$365.09955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a58…a181backed Yes2c1,330$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0520%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x73b9…47c4backed Yes8c1,307$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003016.7%5 W · 25 L-3.6wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-60.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd1f1…39b2backed No78c1,287$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.05666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick57cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0066…1eb1backed Yes1c1,250$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c12…9a6bbacked Yes11c1,109$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.724020%8 W · 32 L-4.9wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-46.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xdb45…b5d6backed Yes3c1,000$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291915.8%3 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick20cpaid+33.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9f2…d642backed Yes25c999.95$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.98757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes13c808.08$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.1921228.8%61 W · 151 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8768…dd9bbacked No75c693.62$518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.046100%6 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+42.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0d66…79cabacked Yes12c681.18$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.181747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+21.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x449c…d9b4backed Yes3c678.85$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8772…e179backed Yes3c662.01$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.541546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick36cpaid+26.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x07d1…8ffabacked Yes4c650$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.6820323.6%48 W · 155 L+13.5wins+0.07per pick17cpaid+3.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe87b…1a52backed Yes4c646.94$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd859…38c5backed Yes3c603$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.860%0 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed Yes26c602.2$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.8135534.9%124 W · 231 L+13.3wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes2c526.21$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.63530%0 W · 53 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ddf…5c37backed Yes5c502.13$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.631246.5%8 W · 116 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes2c500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10692.9%2 W · 67 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-64.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04bf…7cafbacked No76c500$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1205070%35 W · 15 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick66cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4dcf…950ebacked Yes4c470$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.97488.3%4 W · 44 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick6cpaid+21.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x576f…5254backed Yes38c459.99$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.23935.9%14 W · 25 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cb5…6be6backed Yes16c438.19$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.2425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-58.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe886…e553backed Yes22c427.25$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f02…0b2ebacked Yes33c400$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1322138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-43.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x58a1…11e4backed Yes13c397.32$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501553.3%8 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick65cpaid-26.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x506f…e8bbbacked Yes29c389.99$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.82245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-31.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3698…7160backed Yes26c386.37$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+16.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x326b…33ebbacked Yes5c383.58$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2060%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b56…62a7backed Yes20c363.18$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.64250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+48.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7dc9…525ebacked Yes7c339$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.884717%8 W · 39 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5a1…7500backed Yes31c321.21$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xca5a…a074backed Yes4c300$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf6e…e39dbacked No72c290.02$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.0210100%10 W · 0 L+2.6wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf179…fd27backed Yes8c254.53$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2070%0 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c51…af7ebacked Yes35c249.99$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.53644.4%16 W · 20 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes9c210$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9932.2%2 W · 91 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-86%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f63…f247backed Yes25c204.13$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.038650%43 W · 43 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1289…fe88backed No65c171.34$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3ed…d69fbacked No64c167.58$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8b3…4484backed No57c164.28$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.026848.5%33 W · 35 L+5.2wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+29.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7b71…b62ebacked No78c163.74$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.62100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+40.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6091…21fdbacked No64c163.71$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+55.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b98…e27dbacked Yes10c162.82$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick19cpaid-78.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1584…540dbacked No73c148.51$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.363100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x12ed…70c7backed No80c130.81$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5a2…c2c2backed No57c122.77$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.242343.5%10 W · 13 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-29.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes19c120.92$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6223323.6%55 W · 178 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-29.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x55a4…4d0abacked No76c118.62$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+30.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked No71c105.03$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.2816376.7%125 W · 38 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick73cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0be4…d131backed Yes30c100.22$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.37837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.18per pick55cpaid+7.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9188…0189backed Yes14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.18per pick53cpaid+21.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2953…2ed5backed Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick45cpaid+17.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ec8…f83dbacked No61c100$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-59%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x66ed…aa53backed No63c100$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373158.1%18 W · 13 L-0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0c0…b893backed Yes40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-26.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f16…fba0backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1dc…5460backed No77c100$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232669.2%18 W · 8 L+4.7wins+0.18per pick51cpaid+34.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x07e0…1db9backed Yes26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262433.3%8 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-30%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf72d…a2e0backed Yes24c81.73$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-46.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeda5…e16dbacked Yes34c74.61$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6812538.4%48 W · 77 L+11.5wins+0.09per pick29cpaid+28.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5745…aa5ebacked Yes34c59.43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201414.3%2 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick29cpaid-70.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9976…8b3dbacked Yes29c41.4$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.016431.3%20 W · 44 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-16.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71b8…a85dbacked Yes25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101040%4 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+32.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0486…ae8dbacked No74c22.85$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe93…8d0ebacked No53c22$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.343467.6%23 W · 11 L+4.0wins+0.12per pick56cpaid+19.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.