TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$292,599
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$217,658

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $292,599 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 195 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3764…c5ebbacked Yes4c12,526$543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542.5529436.1%106 W · 188 L+16.1wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+24.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb828…6703backed Yes5c10,197$463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$463.47616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick6cpaid+62.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6089…5acbbacked Yes1c7,465$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.9390%0 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc18b…3917backed Yes9c6,940$645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$644.7210126.7%27 W · 74 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-36.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d21…6dfebacked Yes3c6,807$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.1250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+95.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…5e2abacked Yes2c4,578$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.713023.3%7 W · 23 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick14cpaid+261.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5543…8d64backed Yes18c4,010$715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$714.582722.2%6 W · 21 L+2.9wins+0.11per pick11cpaid+65.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes3c3,970$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.93707.1%5 W · 65 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-77.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xee98…113dbacked Yes3c3,865$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.822060%12 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes1c3,600$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222934.1%12 W · 281 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-30.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2afd…deb4backed Yes7c3,521$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.263528.6%10 W · 25 L+3.5wins+0.10per pick19cpaid+40.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes2c3,328$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.232221.4%3 W · 219 L-0.4wins0.00per pick2cpaid+28.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x444a…1679backed Yes3c3,068$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.39250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick10cpaid+194.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed Yes9c2,972$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.3734534.5%119 W · 226 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x913d…1508backed Yes3c2,905$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.37742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick20cpaid+112.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6ab3…8614backed Yes1c2,871$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.79250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick6cpaid+369.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x42df…b671backed Yes24c2,765$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66060%0 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5898…211cbacked Yes5c2,721$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.37119.1%1 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-69.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d76…06ecbacked Yes6c2,675$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes14c2,572$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.4330238.1%115 W · 187 L+11.1wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-13%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb1ae…3f6abacked Yes5c2,536$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.972313%3 W · 20 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick11cpaid+22.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8714…4faabacked Yes17c2,501$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.943743.2%16 W · 21 L+10.6wins+0.29per pick15cpaid+113.1%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes10c2,347$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.861,0309.2%95 W · 935 L-25.0wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-55.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes9c2,340$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.221228.8%61 W · 151 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97a1…002fbacked Yes9c2,228$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72bd…2b64backed Yes5c2,073$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.91190%0 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a5c…321dbacked Yes7c2,038$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.451250%6 W · 6 L+3.3wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+70.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6b5c…c056backed Yes6c2,016$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.263951.3%20 W · 19 L+7.5wins+0.19per pick32cpaid+51.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xc553…07f3backed No76c2,000$1,522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$478520%1 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.38per pick58cpaid-73.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes5c1,999$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.6220624.8%51 W · 155 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-45.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeda5…e16dbacked Yes11c1,930$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.9912538.4%48 W · 77 L+11.5wins+0.09per pick29cpaid+28.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1fe3…305dbacked Yes1c1,876$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.064214.3%6 W · 36 L-0.1wins0.00per pick15cpaid-40.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Yes15c1,844$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.1220%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9feb…ac7abacked Yes46c1,800$828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82830%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5688…df0cbacked No54c1,800$972 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8281100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x896e…ad85backed Yes6c1,672$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08d3…2150backed Yes8c1,643$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.17147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-68.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa9d…d9babacked Yes15c1,639$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.361952.6%10 W · 9 L+4.1wins+0.22per pick31cpaid+48.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x00d2…fb50backed Yes15c1,577$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.553234.4%11 W · 21 L-3.5wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-35.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x958e…5b13backed Yes14c1,552$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed2e…41f7backed Yes7c1,515$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.842010%2 W · 18 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-46.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13b6…c633backed Yes3c1,486$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.61752.7%2 W · 73 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick2cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ddf…5c37backed Yes4c1,458$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.421246.5%8 W · 116 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b55…1426backed Yes3c1,399$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d9f…c9c6backed Yes7c1,333$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.86425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick7cpaid+142.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa556…5c0ebacked Yes12c1,323$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.27633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick19cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdcdd…73a5backed Yes8c1,274$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003522.9%8 W · 27 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-43.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x648f…e2d4backed Yes8c1,273$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3de6…e560backed Yes2c1,211$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.631241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-25.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes2c1,199$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.321987.1%14 W · 184 L-10.4wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-69.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes2c1,136$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.04932.2%2 W · 91 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-86%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe157…51ebbacked Yes2c1,130$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3570%0 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…30abbacked Yes6c1,092$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.0940%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9aa5…e01bbacked Yes19c1,079$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.22per pick21cpaid+57.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes4c1,069$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.74692.9%2 W · 67 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-64.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7994…c512backed Yes5c1,029$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.734634.8%16 W · 30 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick29cpaid-6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe2b4…3c5abacked Yes3c1,002$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.31010%1 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-41.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x625f…e2c0backed Yes31c1,000$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.495915.3%9 W · 50 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-49.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf33d…24cabacked Yes9c999.99$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-68.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb845…d46bbacked Yes3c912.85$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.16450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+90.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x484c…ccb6backed Yes4c900$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.3250%0 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x576f…5254backed Yes5c877$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.773935.9%14 W · 25 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes13c862.8$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.9826413.3%35 W · 229 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e2c…bd51backed No71c840.04$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.044360.5%26 W · 17 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick53cpaid-5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes4c839.15$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.52530%0 W · 53 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc2f2…0ff7backed Yes6c816$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.4311212.5%14 W · 98 L0.0wins0.00per pick13cpaid-36.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07d1…8ffabacked Yes4c745.4$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3419923.1%46 W · 153 L+12.5wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+2.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1c33…ab72backed Yes6c732.63$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442512%3 W · 22 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-76.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x665c…c435backed Yes7c722.44$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.13633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+42.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f02…0b2ebacked Yes8c700$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.32138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-43.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Yes8c690.83$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.824520%9 W · 36 L+4.2wins+0.09per pick11cpaid+72.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes6c675.06$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.5627322%60 W · 213 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x62e9…ec52backed Yes7c674.25$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+27.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeeee…f608backed Yes15c649.88$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.48812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick18cpaid-80.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc768…d748backed Yes4c649.18$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.94333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-56.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd1e…8d24backed Yes8c645.35$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.153036.7%11 W · 19 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-37.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4dcf…950ebacked Yes6c631.35$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.84488.3%4 W · 44 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick6cpaid+21.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3cd…980ebacked Yes5c624.07$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.91425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick7cpaid+56.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xce71…d5f6backed Yes16c604.57$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.641963.2%12 W · 7 L+3.9wins+0.20per pick43cpaid+21.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x007b…adc6backed Yes31c598.82$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.95955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick37cpaid+48.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc4a3…81fabacked Yes6c598.46$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.71130%0 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbaad…9cd2backed Yes7c597.08$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ece…d2bbbacked Yes3c592.13$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x308c…9430backed Yes12c580.7$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$671136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick26cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc294…adadbacked Yes17c578.02$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x038e…9d60backed No78c575.09$449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.071241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-38.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf173…e01dbacked Yes14c565.57$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedaa…5786backed Yes13c563.51$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x95b3…9989backed Yes3c552$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.56684.4%3 W · 65 L-0.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid+123.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03c1…3e98backed Yes7c546.02$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24d0…256cbacked Yes18c541.58$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10060%0 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1355…a695backed Yes8c541$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.611884.3%8 W · 180 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-41.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14be…4498backed Yes24c512.92$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.992420.8%5 W · 19 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-53.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2178…aab5backed Yes3c500$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8170%0 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9aea…b686backed Yes10c499.99$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.52450%12 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+15.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3c8…a922backed Yes7c498$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.83520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-53.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc596…c316backed Yes6c493.98$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301711.8%2 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-65.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes9c492.86$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.546320.6%13 W · 50 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-48.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc1fd…948ebacked Yes8c481.63$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.12616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ba4…6fc4backed Yes9c480.82$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.55633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.21per pick12cpaid+131.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.