TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,400 by end of June?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$53,828
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$52,592

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,828 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 161 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa8b3…4484backed Yes48c2,985$1,419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,566.376848.5%33 W · 35 L+5.2wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+29.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe8b5…aa05backed Yes68c1,543$1,054 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.12487.5%21 W · 3 L+6.8wins+0.28per pick59cpaid+78.2%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x72a0…c059backed No42c1,165$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.336346%29 W · 34 L+7.0wins+0.11per pick35cpaid-2.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No59c1,091$644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$643.5893840.2%377 W · 561 L-69.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-31.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3b00…d78bbacked No51c1,059$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$538.112060%12 W · 8 L-0.1wins0.00per pick60cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes46c982.49$448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$534.8915446.8%72 W · 82 L+17.9wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+69.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No6c955.58$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.511987.1%14 W · 184 L-10.4wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-69.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc2f2…0ff7backed Yes36c832$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$532.4811212.5%14 W · 98 L0.0wins0.00per pick13cpaid-36.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeda5…e16dbacked No34c813.56$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.1512538.4%48 W · 77 L+11.5wins+0.09per pick29cpaid+28.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa019…5ffdbacked No36c723.99$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.692161.9%13 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8191…3868backed No47c695.35$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.151850%9 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9aea…b686backed Yes36c631.25$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4052450%12 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+15.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a5c…321dbacked Yes60c602$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.61250%6 W · 6 L+3.3wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+70.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No23c595.66$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.191,0309.2%95 W · 935 L-25.0wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-55.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ddf…5c37backed No5c500$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.41246.5%8 W · 116 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d5f…634dbacked No48c499.99$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2403842.1%16 W · 22 L-7.3wins-0.19per pick61cpaid-37.1%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x74b4…6beabacked Yes51c444.2$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.043666.7%24 W · 12 L+4.9wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+21.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed Yes43c442.45$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.334534.5%119 W · 226 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa53b…4021backed Yes39c402.8$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.2329747.5%141 W · 156 L+34.9wins+0.12per pick36cpaid+30.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x01ff…3c75backed No15c399.97$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$622433.3%8 W · 16 L+2.9wins+0.12per pick21cpaid+93.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xac83…239cbacked No57c367.48$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.011050%5 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfca…9722backed Yes52c363.04$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.52650%3 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed Yes48c357.96$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.739544.2%42 W · 53 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No31c353.09$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.9212348.8%60 W · 63 L+8.5wins+0.07per pick42cpaid-3.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x775b…ea10backed No57c348.4$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61f6…ed9ebacked Yes55c348.33$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.754100%4 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+40.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c06…b98abacked No55c344.82$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1902425%6 W · 18 L-4.9wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-59.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes63c334.77$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.559741.2%40 W · 57 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-10%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9976…8b3dbacked Yes46c317.6$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.056431.3%20 W · 44 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-16.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeae5…0720backed Yes56c300$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1321637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick40cpaid+4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No37c281.25$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.130839.6%122 W · 186 L-17.4wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-28.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No42c278.99$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.5527322%60 W · 213 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x506f…e8bbbacked No10c251.47$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.152245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-31.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec0f…4547backed No36c244.62$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7994…c512backed No15c237$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.674634.8%16 W · 30 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick29cpaid-6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3dc2…298ebacked No54c228.52$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.4560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x361d…761ebacked No55c222.37$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.53616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.4wins-0.41per pick57cpaid-75.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes46c216.95$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.1535334%120 W · 233 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No17c205$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.1526413.3%35 W · 229 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa9d…d9babacked Yes55c200$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$901952.6%10 W · 9 L+4.1wins+0.22per pick31cpaid+48.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8888…3e92backed Yes59c197.81$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.852100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+77.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x39c4…1980backed Yes60c197.52$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+67.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e83…3bb7backed Yes53c189.48$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.49119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-82.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f8b…56edbacked No9c187.15$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.011729.4%5 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-14.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0526…5585backed Yes69c186.27$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12d3…f160backed No54c185.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x938e…2ee3backed Yes42c183.6$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.495536.4%20 W · 35 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe3f6…4a09backed Yes60c180.8$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+67.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6980…ab00backed Yes60c175.9$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+67.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f06…2cc1backed Yes59c175.3$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b33…474bbacked Yes75c175.17$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa43e…dd69backed No59c172.6$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.99250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe538…e2e1backed No58c172.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-2.6wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd3ac…cf93backed Yes64c167.62$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ff2…9274backed No49c162.15$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick65cpaid-55%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed No60c160.87$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.5214429.9%43 W · 101 L-10.5wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x69f8…369bbacked Yes72c160.83$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.832100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e32…cf0dbacked Yes63c160.16$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.16250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-20.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x237f…d5c1backed Yes66c159.37$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.372100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x64d9…46e6backed No57c157.59$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.832646.2%12 W · 14 L-3.6wins-0.14per pick60cpaid-28.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x67d3…e7a1backed Yes63c157.56$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+57.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0bde…53f3backed No54c153.03$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.41633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-37.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x579f…6a08backed Yes71c152.33$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3731…4bfabacked Yes54c150$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$691233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-48.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc6e6…5705backed Yes65c149.36$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6dc4…6770backed Yes47c145.64$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.814951%25 W · 24 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8efe…1e18backed Yes69c142.39$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c4d…4829backed No63c129.8$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.443342.4%14 W · 19 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x582a…7bb2backed No10c129.65$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.215135.3%18 W · 33 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-16.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd1e…8d24backed Yes61c129.5$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.273036.7%11 W · 19 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-37.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa81…aaf7backed No20c128.31$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.3223323.6%55 W · 178 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-29.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Yes43c127.49$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.165151%26 W · 25 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick45cpaid-11.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7954…aacbbacked Yes74c123.97$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4514…b502backed No44c119.99$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.41040%4 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-43.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6b9…d8e0backed No51c117.41$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.88875%6 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x85cb…629bbacked Yes71c113.4$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b95…a426backed No42c113$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.46850%4 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e6c…6c90backed Yes70c110.87$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.87250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-28.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf66f…352cbacked No36c110.71$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.711250%6 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-21.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b4c…f6cbbacked Yes68c109.85$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9ac…806ebacked Yes52c106.81$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.636475%48 W · 16 L+7.6wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+16.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1205…fd78backed No57c102.28$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0fd4…4d1abacked Yes59c102.16$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.452100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0e6…6791backed No50c100.16$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick40cpaid+17.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fd8…1de3backed Yes44c100$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$561250%6 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b39…bc0dbacked Yes39c100$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$613839.5%15 W · 23 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4eb6…5517backed No65c100$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-20.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5de3…8df2backed No55c100$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55825%2 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-59.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa621…85f4backed Yes65c100$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc556…1fc6backed Yes55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+0.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x216d…a4e1backed Yes52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48850%4 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb83…42d5backed Yes66c100$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3410967%73 W · 36 L+12.5wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+23.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6f02…0b2ebacked Yes51c100$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-43.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc732…45b3backed Yes54c100$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46450%2 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+109.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9308…0321backed No37c99.99$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3740%0 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x18b6…c1f5backed No51c98.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20b9…04d1backed No37c95$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x51f2…38efbacked No58c94.89$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.865724.6%14 W · 43 L-8.2wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-36.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes68c94.53$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.3416276.5%124 W · 38 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick73cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4388…5050backed Yes67c93.5$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.5817752%92 W · 85 L+20.4wins+0.12per pick40cpaid+33.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.