TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x6f8b…56ed

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
54
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: AI, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category AI at 52 out of 100; worst Token Launches at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1729.4%5 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-14.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$45
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.47
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+169.7%+$45.81
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+274.3%+$49.37
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.1
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.61
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$36
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.9
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,300 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+222.5%+$42.68
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $64 in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.4
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.1
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.99
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+147.4%+$39.78
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,400 by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.01
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.74
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,550 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+138.6%+$18.03
All 17 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+40%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.36
Will Waymo launch in Dallas by June 30 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+194.4%+$24.37
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+1,011.1%+$157.22
Will Claude go down 9-11 times in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.23
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.08
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+258.8%+$46.58
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.85
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.84
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+47.5%+$5.27
GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.64
Will the next model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1440?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.07
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+88.6%+$15.95
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking have the best AI model on May 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.4
Claude 4.8 released by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.31
All 15 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jun 26, 2026, EDT50%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick22cpaid+48.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
IPO — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 29, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Stocks — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 11, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.22
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.