AI · resolved market
Will the next model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1440?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb959c3951fec047ba1f1080eedbddfd7d2cc6e2b4a7382a0f8ac008318fbf56d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,647
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,195
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,647 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked No | 53c | 2,376$1,261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,115.39 | 210 | 35.7%75 W · 135 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x997b…801ebacked Yes | 75c | 1,317$994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$994.21 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa3…4899backed Yes | 47c | 1,277$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.52 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01de…a558backed No | 25c | 1,060$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$795.4 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 14c | 1,035$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.45 | 416 | 7.5%31 W · 385 L | -25.7wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 72c | 1,000$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715 | 460 | 38.9%179 W · 281 L | -31.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 10c | 800$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6d…ed0bbacked Yes | 66c | 723.01$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.33 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x736f…deaabacked Yes | 21c | 662.44$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.44 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 553.8$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.52 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…5fb0backed Yes | 69c | 500$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed Yes | 80c | 495$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396 | 117 | 23.9%28 W · 89 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed Yes | 32c | 468.75$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed No | 47c | 449.81$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.89 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed No | 30c | 383.48$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269 | 143 | 37.8%54 W · 89 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbfa…1f40backed Yes | 24c | 355.61$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 20c | 277$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.1 | 165 | 19.4%32 W · 133 L | -21.3wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc3…cef6backed Yes | 66c | 250$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 9c | 234.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 220 | 19.5%43 W · 177 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4825…f3a3backed Yes | 71c | 203.83$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.03 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x582a…7bb2backed Yes | 6c | 182.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6560…e164backed No | 78c | 152$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.42 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec2d…de68backed Yes | 76c | 130$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 21c | 122.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 323 | 29.1%94 W · 229 L | -15.8wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bf…9f9fbacked Yes | 15c | 122$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 31c | 106$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.65 | 731 | 35.6%260 W · 471 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7d…ca41backed Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -5.6wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb161…9132backed Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x060c…48f4backed Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 35c | 98.62$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.6 | 256 | 32.8%84 W · 172 L | -24.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x38fe…4c18backed Yes | 17c | 77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 38c | 71.25$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 894 | 17.1%153 W · 741 L | -145.2wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x52fd…2ab7backed Yes | 17c | 70.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…bda0backed Yes | 61c | 70$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f8b…56edbacked Yes | 17c | 69.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +40%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 28c | 64.27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.27 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 27c | 63.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 144 | 23.6%34 W · 110 L | -12.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked No | 31c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.2 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81d1…4e30backed No | 20c | 60$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked Yes | 60c | 51$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80b3…8efbbacked Yes | 79c | 50.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 288 | 26.7%77 W · 211 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe308…309cbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -39%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64a0…9d96backed No | 23c | 45.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.29 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd73b…0ddcbacked Yes | 68c | 42.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb48…be6dbacked Yes | 76c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6078…dbaebacked Yes | 65c | 30.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf30…930fbacked Yes | 35c | 30.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 73c | 21.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 67 | 83.6%56 W · 11 L | +10.3wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65b7…ee5dbacked Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…3b9dbacked Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8a…1f78backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 57cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe42e…a252backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x302e…88ccbacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -10.8wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the next model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1440?this page
- Will the next model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1460?No won
- Will the next model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1480?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.