AI · resolved market
Will the next model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1480?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9000656d7cc2e397e6eda5b7f2ad3fe08142fdd4313b0baf5914323412037eda
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,103
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,835
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,103 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x01de…a558backed No | 79c | 3,040$2,391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.55 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6d…ed0bbacked Yes | 21c | 3,000$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 1c | 2,204$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 220 | 19.5%43 W · 177 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x842b…b366backed Yes | 22c | 1,271$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.83 | 37 | 10.8%4 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -82.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 14c | 797$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.99 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 11c | 576$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -21.7wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 4c | 341.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 150 | 2.7%4 W · 146 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…bda0backed Yes | 16c | 337.87$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.82 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa222…7d3cbacked Yes | 32c | 303$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.32 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 19c | 300$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 38 | 13.2%5 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa3…4899backed Yes | 13c | 282.06$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked No | 70c | 252$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.6 | 210 | 35.7%75 W · 135 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38a8…865abacked Yes | 22c | 249.18$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.82 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3193…24d3backed Yes | 23c | 215$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 11c | 188.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x55c0…6c7bbacked Yes | 7c | 171.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +2,281.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 78c | 113$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.86 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7d…ca41backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -5.6wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 16c | 86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 23c | 82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…c3bcbacked No | 80c | 75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 32c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 105 | 61.9%65 W · 40 L | +17.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb120…f2ffbacked No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 99 | 40.4%40 W · 59 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed No | 79c | 37.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d6…eef9backed No | 71c | 24.83$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…a8a8backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 76cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -10.8wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa99b…1211backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71cf…10fdbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 65cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf8…94b6backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 65cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd5…f982backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 65cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the next model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1480?this page
- Will the next model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1440?No won
- Will the next model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1460?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.