TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xb120…f2ff

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
291
Categories scored
20
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Stocks, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Stocks at 55 out of 100; worst Middle East at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2026, EDT9940.4%40 W · 59 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-22%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 99 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$174Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$173.69
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$303Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$303.22
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+35.8%+$49.94
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$323Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+67.6%+$218.36
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$172Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+74.1%+$127.71
Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$389Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$389.17
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$234Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$233.78
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.3
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$84.8
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+257.2%+$40.09
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$79.13
Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$123Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$122.62
Will the next model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1480?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$18
Will the next model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1460?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$102Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT+219.1%+$223.7
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.88
Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$34
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$2,294Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,294.45
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.5
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$74.56
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$79.32
Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.36
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$266Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$266.08
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$46
Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1480?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$326Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$325.78
Will Meta have the #3 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Showing 25 of 99 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 20, 2026, EDT5738.6%22 W · 35 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 57 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 218.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$108.33
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Cavaliers vs. Pistons backed Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.26
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$434Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$434.1
Timberwolves vs. Spursbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$105
NBA Playoffs: Knicks vs. 76ers Total Games O/U 5.5backed Under 5.5 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+102%+$21.35
Knicks vs. 76ersbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$59.65
Spread: Spurs (-10.5)backed Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Timberwolves vs. Spursbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$24
76ers vs. Knicksbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Timberwolves vs. Nuggets backed Wolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$922Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+62.6%+$577.64
Nuggets vs. Timberwolvesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+222.6%+$222.58
Timberwolves vs. Nuggetsbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$199.9
Will Kon Knueppel win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$780Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$780.01
Spread: Timberwolves (-1.5)backed Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$114.48
Nuggets vs. Timberwolvesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$112Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$121.68
Spread: Rockets (-9.5)backed Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$51.7
Lakers vs. Rocketsbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$38.1
Spread: Celtics (-8.5)backed Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.23
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)backed Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Nuggets vs. Timberwolvesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$183.33
Spread: Spurs (-11.5)backed Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$66.81
Timberwolves vs. Nuggetsbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+270.4%+$270.37
Timberwolves vs. Nuggetsbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$100.01
Will the Charlotte Hornets make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$575Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$574.73
Showing 25 of 57 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 11, 2026, EST5341.5%22 W · 31 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+26.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 53 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the 2026 Big Game be the most viewed Big Game ever?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+220.2%+$89.4
Big Game - Winning Conference backed NFC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+82.6%+$17.28
Will TreVeyon Henderson be the 2025-2026 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+233.3%+$30.13
Will Tetairoa McMillan be the 2025-2026 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+499.2%+$292.29
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$258Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$257.79
Spread: Falcons (-4.5)backed Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$200
Will the Carolina Panthers win the NFC South?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$136Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST+308.5%+$419.13
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the NFC West?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST+33.5%+$17.3
Panthers vs. Buccaneersbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$292Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$291.94
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the NFC West?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$77.52
Seahawks vs. Panthersbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$114.01
Jets vs. Saintsbacked Jets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST-100%-$39.27
Spread: Chiefs (-11.5)backed Chiefs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST-100%-$57.5
Buccaneers vs. Panthersbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST+143.9%+$359.76
Spread: Rams (-1.5)backed Rams · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Rams vs. Seahawksbacked Rams · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$125
Rams vs. Seahawks: O/U 42.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$25
Titans vs. 49ersbacked Titans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$22.5
Spread: Panthers (-3.5)backed Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$484Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$483.77
Colts vs. Seahawksbacked Colts · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$17.5
Spread: Texans (-9.5)backed Texans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+81.8%+$10.23
Jets vs. Jaguars: O/U 42.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+138.1%+$19.64
Raiders vs. Eaglesbacked Raiders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Falcons vs. Buccaneersbacked Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST+244.8%+$71
Eagles vs. Chargersbacked Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$29.89
Showing 25 of 53 picks, newest first.
Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 18, 2026, EDT1643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-22.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$73.98
Will Dan Bilzerian be the Republican nominee for FL-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$80.68
Will Angie Craig win Dakota County in the Minnesota Democratic Senate primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$33
Will Justin Pearson be the Democratic Nominee for TN-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT+194.1%+$123
Will Steve Cohen be the Democratic Nominee for TN-09?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$37.53
Will Nancy Mace win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$150.43
Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$22.87
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$444Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$444.44
Will Ron Eller be the Republican Nominee for MS-02?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$223Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$222.8
Dems or GOP larger turnout in Texas Senate Primary?backed GOP · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$86.85
Will Kate Abughazaleh be the Democratic nominee for IL-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$258Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$258.32
Will Brandon Herrera be the Republican nominee for TX-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$122Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+40.8%+$49.8
Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$806Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+51.9%+$418.39
Will Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+45.3%+$11.81
Will Jacob Frey win the 2025 Minneapolis mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$81Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+25.4%+$20.74
Will Omar Fateh win the 2025 Minneapolis mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$26.26
All 16 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2026, EDT1145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick39cpaid-12.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$70.53
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$97.93
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$63.16
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$111Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$111.08
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.48
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$1,532Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,532.19
DeepSeek V4 released by April 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+42.1%+$17.11
DeepSeek V4 released by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$82.06
DeepSeek V4 released by April 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+26%+$9.89
DeepSeek V4 released by April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$623Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+184%+$1,146.67
DeepSeek V4 released by March 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$87Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+176.5%+$153.91
All 11 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT1020%2 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.22per pick42cpaid-66.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Middle East — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$174Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$173.83
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$60.62
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.25
US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$90
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$95.37
US forces enter Iran by March 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$228Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$227.61
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$33
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$54.61
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$619Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+51.9%+$321.26
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$275Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$274.67
All 10 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved May 20, 2026, EDT966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+16.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Movies — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Mother's Milk die in "The Boys: Season 5"?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.2
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$16.53
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$249Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+67.1%+$166.91
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+142.2%+$75.9
Will Lilo and Stitch be the second highest grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$195Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+93.3%+$181.88
Will Wicked: For Good be the second highest grossing movie of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+28.2%+$6.27
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+48.8%+$8.29
Will "Man Vs Baby" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (December 23, 2025)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$71.45
Will "Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua" be the top global Netflix show this week? (December 23, 2025)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$368Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$367.62
All 9 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+34.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 4, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-37.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+44.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST40%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+86.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Stocks — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

College Football Inactivelast resolved Dec 26, 2025, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-30.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
College Football — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Minnesota (-2.5)backed Minnesota · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$83Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST+109.8%+$91.07
Minnesota vs. Northwesternbacked Minnesota · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$14.21
Miami (OH) vs. Ohiobacked Miami (OH) · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$20.9
All 3 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Oct 26, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dodgers vs. Blue Jaysbacked Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
All 2 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 4, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Mar 27, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+150%+$40.05
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Mar 28, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Kanye release BULLY by March 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$220Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$280
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$28.29
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 24, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Sabres vs. Bruins: O/U 6.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$18.15
All 1 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Jan 13, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will inflation reach more than 3% in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$55
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.